(funded by DG Research 5th FP)

1. (funded by DG Research 5th FP) Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Modelling of European Air Pollution Control Strategies - an Integrated Approach Case Studies & Joint Optimisation Results

2. The MERLIN team: • IER University of Stuttgart (Co-ordinator) • Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no) • Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Laboratory for Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering (AUT/LHTEE) • University College London (UCL) • ECOFYS Energy and Environment • Institute for Ecology of Industrial Areas (IETU) • Energy Research Center (ERC) of Ostrava Technical University • National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) • University of Ploiesti (Ploiesti, Romania)

3. Objectives Development and application of methodologies and toolsfor an integrated assessment of European air pollution control strategies Features • multi-pollutant, multi-effect assessment • cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis • application of advanced optimisation methods • inclusion of non-technical measures • macroeconomic effects and distributional burdens of air pollution control • inclusion of new member states

4. Acidification Global Warming Eutrophication N2O SO2 CH4 NOx CO2 NH3 CO NMVOC Urban Air Quality Particulate Matter (PM2.5 / PM10) TroposphericOzone primary & secondary Aerosols Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Analysis

5. MERLIN Model Framework Databases compiled for 2000, 2010, 2020 • Optimal Strategies, including: • Emissions by country • Concentrations by gridcell • Abatement costs by country and sector • Avoided damage costs • ... SADB MDB Stock + Activities MeasureData Scenario-ToolScenarion development and data management OMEGA Changing Stock and Activity by implementing measures Stock Activities MeasureData Optimisation SADB* MDB* Scenarios Modified databases • Emission Scenarios for future years, giving • Emissions by country and sector • Implementation degrees of measures • Changes in emissions relative to the base case by country and sector

6. Measure-Matrix-Approach Costs of implementation(typically with reference to Stock or Activity) Measure-Database (MDB) Reference Description DEF1DEF2 .. DEFn Costs Meta-Information non-tech. measures(affecting S or A) techn. measures(affecting EFs) unique ID Information on imple-mentation, interdependencies, i.e. AND, OR, XOR, ... Stock-Activity-Database (SADB) Reference Description Stock (S) Activity (A) EF1 EF2 .. EFn Meta-Information e = A * EFi EF = Emission Factor S = Stock (e.g. # of vehicles) A = Activity (e.g. km/yr) e = source emissions E = source-group emissions E = S * e

7. Stock, activity data and emission factors for 2000 and the baseline scenario 2010 established and checked by comparing it with EMEP 2000 and the CAFE baseline 2010 and UNFCCC 2010 data About 1000 measures per country (= 25 000 measures) implemented, measure & cost data currently validated against literature and other projects, e.g. EGTEI, IIASA RAINS) A large number of model scenario runs have been carried out for testing & assessing the full model system, including different meteorological conditions based on source-receptor relationships for 1997, 2000, and other years to come State of Work

8. ~175 bill. € ~123 bill. € Impact Assessment: Assessment of health impacts due to emissions in EU25 – for 2000 and 2010 baseline (estimates including local damages)

9. Model results (1) : Ozone maps for a health-related strategy aiming at compliance with AOT60 (i.e. 0 ppb.h exceedance) DAOT40f DAOT60 for a health-oriented Ozone scenario Exceedance of AOT 60: base case 2010: 64 %, resulting health impact scenario: 25% of grid cells DAOT40c Total costs: 92 billion €, emission reduction 2.97 Mt of NOx, 2.51 Mt NMVOC

10. Model results (2): PM2.5 and PM10 Analysis of a joint scenario to achieve compliance with AOT60, PM10/2.5 concentrations (threshold set to 10 mg/m3) and Kyoto targets for GHG emissions (as CO2-equivalent) with regard to PM2.5 (above) and PM10 (below) impacts. (1997 meteorology, EU25++ countries)

11. Model results (3): Case study road transport PM in Germany • Investigating additional options to reduce PM10 from road transport sources until 2010, how far can M(T)FR be taken? • 3 approaches (technical measures only; tech & “switch” measures; tech, switch and non-technical measures) • non-technical measures modeled based on activity changes (not driving, switching to public transport, long term responses excluded) • costs for non-technical measures derived from dead weight loss • assuming retrofitting of existing vehicle stock and new vehicles sold equipped with PM control equipment from 2006 on • Some results: • total costs for Passenger Cars (diesel) 1.3 bill. €/a •  7.1 Mill. PCdiesel in Germany projected by 2010 • roughly 184 €/vehicle * year • total costs for TECH scenario about 3.8 bill. €/a • up to 17.9 bill. €/a for tech & switch & nontech

12. Model results (4): Case study road transport PM in Germany mill. € • Costs in Germany vs. benefits from reduced emissions of PM10, NOx and VOC in EU25 • PM10 reduction on top of 2010 BAU ( 2010 CAFÉ Baseline) in the sector Road Transport • reduction in total PM10 emissions from 8.3% to 13.7%

13. Model results (5): Case study road transport PM in Germany TECH TECH & SWITCH TECH & SWITCH & NONTECH Dmax 0.44mg/m3 Dmax 0.69mg/m3 Dmax 0.70 mg/m3 • Resulting changes in primary PM concentrations for the three cases investigated

14. Model results (6): Case study road transport PM in Germany • Most efficient measures to reduce 10 kt from road transport sources in Germany? Technology Name of Measure Heavy duty vehicles pre EURO Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, base metal Heavy duty vehicles EURO I DPX Catalyzed Particulate Filter Heavy duty vehicles EURO II DPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst (open system) Heavy duty vehicles EURO III DPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst (open system) Urban Buses pre EURO Modern Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, precious metal Urban Buses EURO I Modern Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, precious metal

15. Model results (6): Case study road transport PM in Germany • Optimised for PM10 reduction ! Technology Name of Measure Heavy duty vehicles pre EURO Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, base metal Heavy duty vehicles EURO I DPX Catalyzed Particulate Filter Heavy duty vehicles EURO II DPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst (open system) Heavy duty vehicles EURO III DPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst (open system) Urban Buses pre EURO Modern Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, precious metal Urban Buses EURO I Modern Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, precious metal

16. Conclusions & Outlook • main issues usually availability and access to data for stock, activities and measures; adding and improving input data will further improve the quality of results • main advantages of the measure-matrix approach and the GA optimisation are the scalability from individual measure assessment to sectoral to country/regional analysis, both for cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit assessment • detailed analyses of model results indicate complex interactions between measures in particular for stationary sources; integrating more sophisticated ways to account for costs of early de-commissioning of equipment will improve the assessment of relative cost-effectiveness of measures further • extension to cover heavy metals, benzene and direct pollutant releases into water and soil is currently in progress, as well for non-CO2 GHGs • long-term plans include investigating parallelisation, web-accessability and dynamic modelling over longer time periods, allowing for improved assessment of indogeneous and exogeneous changes in stock, activities and measure implementation (e.g. duration of implementing)

17. Contact: • Stefan Reis: sr@ier.uni-stuttgart.de • http://www.merlin-project.info • http://www.ier.uni-stuttgart.de TFEIP & ESPREME Workshop on Heavy Metals and POPsRovaniemi/Finland, Oct 18/19 2005 http://espreme.ier.uni-stuttgart.de/workshop Project on Natural and Biogenic Emissions (NATAIR) http://natair.ier.uni-stuttgart.de Thank you for your attention!