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LTE Futures

LTE Futures. Adam Drobot President, Advanced Technology Solutions and CTO Telcordia Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA adrobot@telcordia.com. Dinner Talk Next Generation Mobile Networks – NGMN – Partner Forum 14 April 2010 Turin, Italy. www.telcordia.com www.argreenhouse.com. Abstract.

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LTE Futures

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  1. LTE Futures Adam Drobot President, Advanced Technology Solutions and CTO Telcordia Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA adrobot@telcordia.com Dinner Talk Next Generation Mobile Networks – NGMN – Partner Forum 14 April 2010 Turin, Italy www.telcordia.comwww.argreenhouse.com

  2. Abstract • Starting with the early 1990’s, almost from nothing, a set of global networks were created with stunning speed and equally stunning commitment of capital • These networks and servers reach over 3 Billion people on the planet • They account for well over half the business activity of service providers • Mobile services involve components touching many technologies, which are on exponential trajectories • We have seen an explosion of devices, services, and applications • Consumers and users of these services have often surprised us with what they will spend money on • The impact on people’s lives and institutions has been profound

  3. Abstract (cont’d) We are about to embark on the next chapter of the mobile revolution where the global impact on the way we live and interact with each other will be even more dramatic New unifying infrastructure build around LTE and IP Extension to direct communication between devices A driving force in economic growth around the world affecting all industries, governments, and individuals Change in people’s life styles Changes in who the players are for us in the industry A global shift in where research and development will occur

  4. Broadband Ecosystem Portion of Broadband Network Function

  5. Broadband Supply Chain

  6. Value Chain – End User Perspective

  7. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • ICT • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Anticipation • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  8. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • ICT • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Anticipation • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  9. Adoption: US Wireless Subscribers

  10. Adoption: Consumer Adoption Curves, US

  11. Wireless Adoption Milestones • 2007: Wireless-only households exceed wireline-only households in US • 2008: ICT* is 7% of US GDP and still growing! • 2009: Half the world uses cell phones * Information-communication-technology producing industries (ICT): Consists of computer and electronic products; publishing industries (includes software); information and data processing services; and computer systems design and related services. (US BEA)

  12. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • ICT • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Anticipation • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  13. Wireless-only Households in Canada and the US Source: CRTC: Convergence Policy, Policy Development & Research, Feb 2010

  14. Demographic Groups Most Likely to be Cellular Only % Cellphone-Only, Apr 2007

  15. Percentage of US Households without Landline Telephones

  16. Projected North American Business Use of Landline and Cell Phones

  17. Phone Behavior by Age in Single-Person Households Source: Mediamark Research Inc. Survey of the American Consumer (Waves 56)

  18. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • ICT • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Anticipation • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  19. Global Trends: World View over 14 Years • 153 countries, 1995 – 2008 • Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 population • Mobile Subscriptions per 100 population • Internet Users per 100 population • Broadband Subscribers per 100 population Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue

  20. Global Trends – Fixed Telephone Lines Fixed Telephone Lines Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue

  21. Germany Canada U.K. Switz. Taiwan Iceland Malta Korea Sweden China Lux. Russia U.S. Viet Nam Norway Australia India New Zealand Myanmar Qatar Japan Kuwait Niger Burundi Eq. Guinea Malaysia Papua New Guinea South Africa Indonesia Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  22. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1995 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  23. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1996 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  24. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1997 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  25. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1998 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  26. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 1999 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  27. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2000 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  28. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2001 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  29. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2002 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  30. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2003 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  31. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2004 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  32. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2005 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  33. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2006 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  34. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2007 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  35. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  36. Germany Canada U.K. Switz. Taiwan Iceland Malta Korea Sweden China Lux. Russia U.S. Viet Nam Norway Australia India New Zealand Myanmar Qatar Japan Kuwait Niger Burundi Eq. Guinea Malaysia Papua New Guinea South Africa Indonesia Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population again Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  37. Global Trends – Mobile Subscriptions Mobile Subscriptions Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue

  38. U.A.E Bahrain Italy Estonia Lithuania U.K. Russia Bulgaria Lux. Qatar Ukraine Switz. Indonesia Norway Viet Nam Australia. Gambia New Zealand U.S. Niger Korea Canada Burundi Japan Taiwan Eq. Guinea China India Papua New Guinea Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  39. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1995 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  40. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1996 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  41. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1997 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  42. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1998 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  43. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 1999 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  44. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2000 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  45. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2001 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  46. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2002 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  47. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2003 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  48. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2004 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  49. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2005 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  50. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2006 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

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