FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: October 31, 2008

1. FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title PageRevised: October 31, 2008 • Title: GOES Tropical Cyclone (TC) Applications Research • Project Type(s): Product Development, Improvement, & Utilization • Status: Renewal • Duration: 2 years • Leads: • Chris Velden – CIMSS (PI) • Tim Olander – CIMSS • Dave Stettner -- CIMSS • Other Participants: • Mike Turk (SSD/SAB Collaborator) • Derrick Herndon – CIMSS • Mark DeMaria (NESDIS/RAMM/CIRA Collaborator)

2. 2. Project Summary • Proposed Task 1: Continue the exploration of new and innovative methods for integration into the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) to improve estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from GOES. Approaches: 1) Continue to explore the integration of other GOES channels (MW, IR/WV differencing). Preliminary research is encouraging. 2) Continue to analyze and mitigate known biases in the ADT estimates. Example: ADT has difficulty with emerging EYE scenes. 3) Based on a request from NHC and SAB, explore extending the ADT scope of operations to pre-Depression, Subtropical, and Extratropical Transition stages. The current version only operates on purely tropical systems of at least Depression strength. • Proposed Task 2: Continue the development and evaluation of a new intensity algorithm called SATCON, which yields a weighted consensus estimate of TC intensity from multiple satellite sources (incl. GOES/ADT). • Proposed Task 3: As part of public outreach and community utilization of GOES data, we will continue to develop and add to an on-line archive of GOES derived products processed by the CIMSS TC group over the past decade.

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • NOAA Mission Goals: • This product development primarily supports: Weather and Water • NOAA-wide Goals: • This product development primarily supports: Satellite Services • This research is being conducted to exploit the potential, and help mitigate the existing limitations of, GOES derived products as applied to TCs. The research strategies proposed are novel, and promise to improve on the product quality, and utilization. • The proposed tasks build on a long and successful GIMPAP TC research program at CIMSS. Both the operational and research communities have frequently cited the importance of GOES products developed by CIMSS under NOAA GIMPAP support. We use this as motivation to continue to innovate and advance GOES product development towards TC applications.

4. 4. Methodology • We have collected large volumes of GOES multispectral images extending over many years. From this imagery we have derived products applicable to TC analysis. • We have collocated (space and time) Atlantic TC aircraft reconnaissance datasets for comparison and validation purposes. • Proposed Task 1) Using the aircraft data as ground truth, matched ADT/recon comparisons are being compiled and statistically evaluated based on selected stratifications that address known ADT performance biases (i.e., explore other spectral bands). We will utilize empirical/statistical approaches to optimize the ADT algorithm and attempt to extend its operation to new stages of TC development (pre-Depr., ST, ET). • Proposed Task 2) Results from 1) above will be used to re-derive TC estimate weights in the SATCON algorithm, and to explore the extension of SATCON applications to other storm stages mentioned above. The recon data will be used to validate the performance of the SATCON algorithm. • Proposed Task 3) SSEC has purchased a RAID storage system as part of an upgrade to the GOES archive (no cost to GIMPAP). The CIMSS TC group is in the process of restoring tape-archived GOES products processed by the group over the past decade. An on-line graphical user interface will be developed to facilitate community data requests.

5. 5. Expected Outcomes • Proposed Task 1)---ADT: A GOES PSDI is in place to facilitate transition of successful research results to the NESDIS operational algorithms. • Proposed Task 2)---SATCON: If successful, a PSDI proposal will be submitted to facilitate transition of the research results to the NESDIS/NWS operations. • Proposed Task 3)---On-line GOES TC Product Archive: The improved capability for user/researcher access to, and utilization of, GOES products for TC applications will be realized through the interactive, on-line archive system hosted at SSEC/CIMSS. • Documentation (i.e., User Manuals, Journal articles) will be written describing/updating the results of the research (Tasks 1 and 2).

6. 6. Progress in FY08 Milestones • Summary • Implemented several ADT modification tasks. Evaluation underway (2008 TC season). • Plan to re-derive coefficients for SATCON based on new ADT results. Evaluate against recon verification. • Currently restoring archived GOES derived products onto RAID storage system. Initial design of an on-line GUI for user interaction has begun. Goal: To open up to a limited ‘beta-test’ user community for initial comment/assessment by end of CY08.

7. 6. Progress in FY08 Milestones Task: Continue the exploration of new and innovative methods for integration into the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) to improve estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from GOES. Implemented several ADT modification tasks based on sub-performance in specific situations. Major upgrade involves infusion of microwave information from polar orbiters to ameliorate “hidden” eye structure obscured by clouds in the IR that was leading to weak ADT estimates of intensity. Evaluation underway (2008 TC season). 7

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9. 6. Progress in FY08 Milestones Task: Continue the development and evaluation of a new intensity algorithm called SATCON, which yields a weighted consensus estimate of TC intensity from multiple satellite sources (incl. GOES/ADT) This task is waiting on the new ADT results. Plan is to re-derive coefficients for SATCON once the new ADT results are deemed successful. Then evaluate new SATCON against recon verification for cases in 2008. 9

10. 6. Progress in FY08 Milestones Task: As part of public outreach and community utilization of GOES data, we will continue to develop and add to an on-line archive of GOES derived products processed by the CIMSS TC group over the past decade. Currently restoring archived GOES derived products onto RAID storage system: 6 years restored, 4 to go. Initial design of an on-line GUI for user interaction has begun. Goal: To open up to a limited ‘beta-test’ user community for initial comment/assessment by end of CY08. 10

11. 7. FY09 Milestones • FY09 • Continue implementation and evaluation of ADT science upgrades. Assess new performance benchmark, and future research needs. Document modifications and upgrades for potential psdi transition to operations (psdi already in place). • Complete evaluation of SATCON modifications. Assess new performance benchmark, and future research areas. Document the algorithm for potential psdi transition to operations (“new-start” psdi). • Continue to update the GOES TC product on-line archive. Assess potential new products to be added. Address user feedback.

12. 8. Funding Profile (K) Summary of leveraged funding NOAA-PSDI grant (new start in late FY07, assuming extension through 08-09) has potential for leveraging some labor coverage for successful ADT code modifications deemed ready for operational transition to NESDIS/NWS. Note: 5K increase in FY08-09 is to facilitate the implementation of the on-line GOES product archive for enhanced user/public outreach. 12

13. 9. FY09 Expected Purchase Items $80,000 FY09 Total Project Budget $80K Grant to CIMSS, March 2009 9 months Research Scientist support and overhead Computer charges Publication charges University overhead $0 Federal Travel $0 Federal Publication Charges 13