James Neumann Principal May 19, 2010

1. Proposed Methodology and Action Plan to Develop the Impact Assessment and Menu of Adaptation Options for Uzbekistan James NeumannPrincipalMay 19, 2010

2. Overview • Objectives of the study • Introduce the Industrial Economics team of consultants (see Handout 1) • Key Steps in the Process (see Handout 4) • Initial Mission • Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Agriculture • Initial stakeholder consultations • Capacity Building Workshop(s) • Develop Initial Menu of Adaptation Options • Second stakeholder consultations and National Workshop • Goals for this visit

3. Objectives of the Study “Enhance the ability of four countries in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments.” • The four countries are: • Albania • Moldova • Macedonia • Uzbekistan • Strategies used: • raising awareness of the threat • analyzing potential impacts and adaptation responses • building capacity among national and local stakeholders • A key product of consultant team’s work is a menu of adaptation measures for crop and livestock production sector.

4. Key Staff of the Industrial Economics Consulting Team • James Neumann, IEc, Project Manager • Kenneth Strzepek, Univ. Colorado and MIT, Technical Director • Ana Iglesias, Univ. of Madrid, Agronomist and Crop Modeler • Peter Droogers, FutureWater, Crop and Water Resources Modeler • Janusz Kindler, Warsaw University of Technology, Water Resources Expert • Richard Adams, Oregon State Univ. and Brent Boehlert, IEc, Agricultural Economists • Samuel Fankhauser, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Economist & Expert Reviewer • Andrew Schwarz, IEc, Participatory Process Expert

6. Initial Mission • Learn from you about the Uzbekistan context: • What are the key crops and livestock? • Which of these seem particularly vulnerable to climate change? • What has been done so far to respond? • What major policies are under consideration? • Identify data to support the modeling studies • Identify key people and institutions to coordinate and jointly conduct the study • Concludes with a detailed Inception Report and Data Request

7. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Agriculture • Climate Projections – three scenarios from among the 56 IPCC AR4 GCM options • Crop Modeling – Process-based models (e.g., AquaCrop) for select crops • Water Resource Availability “Screening Tool” – CLIRUN – projects runoff for key basins • Basin-level Water Modeling – WEAP for one or two large basins in each country

8. Dimensions of the Impact Assessment • GeographicScope: Agro-ecological zone, with representative crop modeling for each region. • Crops: Selected field crops/cereals, vegetables, fruit and nut trees, fiber crops – also livestock focus. • FutureClimate: Three future climate scenarios, wet/median/dry, reflect the range of GCM outcomes at the country level. • Time: Decadal averages from 2010 to 2050 (i.e., 2015, 2025, 2035, 2045) • EconomicBaseline: current conditions/markets with FAO projections of market prices through 2050.

9. Example of a Water Model Interface (WEAP)

10. Capacity Building Workshop • Conduct a formal training workshop at a central location for a specific impact assessment technique. • Candidates include: • Process-based crop modeling (e.g., AquaCrop) • Screening tools for crop and water assessment (e.g., CLIRUN, CLICROP) • Basin-level water resources modeling (e.g., WEAP)

12. Stakeholder Consultations • Conducted in each AEZ, two sets of meetings • At first meeting, present draft impact results for crop yields and water availability under climate change. • Then, ask: • Experts/analysts: Do the crop, livestock, water modeling results look reasonable to you? • Farmers: What options would you employ in response to these outcomes? What other ideas do you have?

13. Develop Initial Menu of Adaptation Options • Take results of impact assessment and stakeholder consultations. • Generate farm-level estimates of net benefits of adaptation options, using readily available data and FAO price projections • Rank initial set of adaptation options based on net benefit criteria • Add a second, qualitative ranking based on the recommendations of our expert team • Experts will also add country-level policy options (e.g., changes to water allocation scheme) to the menu

14. Overview of Approach

15. Second Stakeholder Consultations & National Workshop • At second consultation meeting, present our draft adaptation menu, ask: • Which of the recommended options do you favor? • Do the economic parameters we used (e.g., price of fertilizer inputs, cost of irrigation improvements)? • What barriers do you see to implementing the recommendations (economic, institutional, policy)? • What options are missing from our list? • Ask the same set of questions at the National Workshop

17. Goals for this Visit • Identify most important and potentially vulnerable crops and livestock in Uzbekistan, based on your current experience • Make contact with key institutions and people • Discuss available data • LISTEN AND LEARN!

18. IEc INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED 617.354.0074