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Peak oil, climate change and transition – PLACE

Peak oil, climate change and transition – PLACE. PLACE: nn-Mmm-08 Ben Brangwyn Co-founder, Transition Network. Agenda. Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change Responses at different levels global, national, local, personal PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” What is a transition town

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Peak oil, climate change and transition – PLACE

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  1. Peak oil, climate change and transition – PLACE PLACE: nn-Mmm-08 Ben Brangwyn Co-founder, Transition Network

  2. Agenda • Peak Oil and its effects • Climate Change • Responses at different levels • global, national, local, personal • PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” • What is a transition town • Examples and achievements so far • Q&A discussion

  3. Peak Oil – fields, regions, world • we’ll never “run out” of oil • we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil • oil underpins • industrial development • agriculture • economics • population • about ½ way through it… • it’s going to decline

  4. Peak Oil – discovery • before you extract it, you have to find it • US discovery peaked in 1930s • production peaked in 1971 • UK discovery peaked in 1975 • production peaked in 1999 • world discovery peaked in 1960s • production will peak in 20??

  5. Peak Oil – official numbers • EIA - Energy Information Administration • IEA - International Energy Agency

  6. Peak Oil vs Peak Exports • Oil producers getting richer • Developing their own economies • Middle East growth: 5-6% pa • Russia growth: 7% pa • Increasing their domestic consumption of oil • fuelled by subsidised prices • Less available for countriesthey export to. Like us …

  7. Peak Oil – what’s it like? • terminal decline • demand destruction • examples: • 1990s: North Korea • 1990s: Cuba • 2000: UK fuel crisis • Now: Poor countries

  8. Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor) • Asia • Nepal • Pakistan • Bangladesh • Sri Lanka • Philippines • China • India • Vietnam • Africa • Uganda • Zimbabwe • Ghana • Nigeria • Senegal • Kenya • Gambia • Philippines • Americas • Argentina • Nicaragua • Chile • Costa Rica • Dominican Republic • Middle East • Iraq • Iran

  9. Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re in Argentina) • Argentina: • worst energy shortage in nearly 20 years • collapse of both the power grid and the fuel supply system • electricity supplies have been severely curtailed, plunging entire districts into darkness and causing the layoff of industrial workers • shortages of compressed natural gas, which powers many Argentine cars and 90% of the capital's taxis, are common • can no longer meet peak electricity demand.

  10. Climate Change – the end of the debate The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Upsala Glacier, Argentina

  11. Fossil Fuels, Carbon and Economic Growth

  12. Peak Oil & Climate Change PLANNED RELOCALISATION • local resilience • carbon reduction • consume closer to home • produce closer to home • play closer to home • decentralised energy infrastructure • the Great Reskilling • localised food • energy descent plans • local medicinal capacity • local currencies CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) • climate engineering • carbon capture and storage • tree-based carbon offsets • international emissions trading • climate adaptation • improved transportation logistics • nuclear power PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) • coal to liquids • gas to liquids • relaxed drilling regulations • massively scaled biofuels • tar sands and non-conventional oils • resource nationalism and stockpiling

  13. What can be done? • Global • Oil Depletion Protocol • Contraction and Convergence • Kyoto • National • TEQs (energy rationing) • Community • Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural • Personal • “The work that reconnects” • lessons from addiction counselling • getting Gaia’ed

  14. Can we respond? • Going up the energy slope, we used • ingenuity • creativity • adaptability • cooperation • Going back down… • if we’re early enough • if we’re cooperative • the future could be a whole lot better…

  15. What’s stopping us? (1) • Myths of today • Things are getting better • We must keep shopping • Technology will solve all our problems • There is no alternative • You can’t stop progress • Living standards are rising • New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner • Humans are selfish and greedy by nature • The market will solve it • We’re all doomed…

  16. What’s stopping us? (2) • Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) • Short term vs long term thinking • rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian • Belief in authority figures • electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose • obedient children survive • Sunk cost, or investment in the present • “it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job depends on him not believing it” • Optimism • an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling • Left brain, right brain

  17. Techno-Fantasy Where are we going? Peak Energy? Green-Tech Stability • Energy & Resource Use • Population • Pollution Industrial Ascent Creative Descent (Permaculture) Earth stewardship Pre-industrial culture Post Mad Max Collapse Historical Time Future Time Industrial Revolution Great Grand Children BabyBoom Agriculture 10.000yrsBP

  18. Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? Official Transition Initiatives • 400+ “mullers” • UK • Ireland • USA • Spain • Italy • New Zealand • Australia • France • Israel • Canada • Mexico • Norway • South Africa • Sweden • Uruguay • Argentina… • Totnes • Penwith (Cornwall) • Kinsale • Ivybridge • Falmouth • Moretonhampstead • Lewes • Stroud • Ashburton • Ottery St Mary • Bristol • Brixton • Forest Row • Mayfield • Glastonbury • Forest of Dean • Lostwithiel • Nottingham • Wrington • Brighton&Hove • Portobello (Edinburgh) • Market Harborough • Sunshine Coast, Oz • West Kirby • Llandeilo • Bro Ddyfi • Whitstable • Marsden&Slaithwaite • Frome

  19. How are they organising? Transition Model • Understanding: • PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” • Adaptability, creative • NOW • 7 Buts • 12 Steps • Transition Network

  20. Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1) • we don’t have funding • “they” won’t let us • no enemies… apparently • turf wars with other green groups

  21. Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2) • no one cares about the environment • it’s too late anyway • I don’t have the right qualifications • I don’t have the energy to be doing that

  22. Transition Model - Step 1 • Set Up a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset • atrophy • personal agendas • humility • stages 2-5 • reforms from subgroups

  23. Transition Model - Step 2 • Awareness raising • allies and networks • prepare community • movies • talks • events

  24. Transition Model - Step 3 • Lay the foundations • other groups • existing projects • official bodies • businesses • collaboration

  25. Transition Model - Step 4 • Organise a Great Unleashing • coming of age • powerful, passionate, informative, inspirational • timing • content • making connections

  26. Transition Model - Step 5 • Form “working groups” • starting new groups • bringing in existing groups • guidelines • training • working groups and the steering group

  27. Transition Model - Step 6 • Use “Open Space” • shouldn’t work! • requirements • preparations • World Café • Harrison Owen - Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide • Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future

  28. Transition Model - Step 7 • Develop visible practical manifestations of your project • not a talking shop • chose carefully • lure in fence-sitters • team building potential • getting dirt under your fingernails

  29. Transition Model - Step 8 • Facilitate the Great Reskilling • Grandma, what was it like when you were a kid? • repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building, loft insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless…) • eg WWOOFing

  30. Transition Model - Step 9 • Build bridges to Local Government • becomes crucial • don’t wait too long… • open door • Community Development Plan • elections…!

  31. Transition Model - Step 10 • Honour the Elders • elders as a community resource • 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil scarcity to abundance • oral history • community infrastructure • not about going backwards

  32. Transition Model - Step 11 • Let it go where it wants to go… • focus on the questions • unleash the community • any sense of control is illusory

  33. Transition Model - Step 12 • Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action Plan • assess current situation • create 15-20 year vision for all key areas • integrate with community plan if possible • identify steps needed to get there • start the work

  34. What have they achieved so far…? (1) Lewes • school workshops • grow your own food courses • rug making course • mending course • Lewes non-plastic bag • library books on sustainability • many events, talks and films Penwith • many films and talks • food and farming day with Soil Association • reskilling – composting toilets and reedbeds Totnes • 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events • 10-week “skilling up for powerdown” course • seed sharing days • oil vulnerability auditing • Estates in Transition • local food directory • local currency (phase 2) • oral history archives • nut tree capital of Britain • transition stories • lobbying (food and sustainable building regs) • community plan engagement • Totnes Renewable Energy Company

  35. What have they achieved so far…? (2) Brixton • greenmapping / urban agriculture project • permaculture design course • films and talks • presenting to school boards on peak oil and climate change • urban food growers network day Bristol • many films, talks and events • transition training 2-day course • city orchard (central buying of trees for productive planting by individual homeowners • guerilla gardening • photo exhibition and competition of “living more, using less” Stroud • CSA, local food festival • tool share • textile courses, visits to hemp manufacturers, fashion show • planning Stroud Hemporium • Heinberg meeting with council • Transition “think tank” with local council • many events and talks

  36. Transition Training • Totnes: 18 to 19-Oct-07 • 17 people (Birmingham, Lostwithiel, Exeter) • Bristol: 20-Nov-07 • London: Dec-07 • Scotland? • Wales? • North…

  37. Our choice… • We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

  38. Transition Initiatives Thank you Ben Brangwyn

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