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0506 Subscription Campaign “For which Zip Codes should we buy mailing lists?”

0506 Subscription Campaign “For which Zip Codes should we buy mailing lists?”. This report (7 pages) will take three different approaches to identify Zip codes for which a purchased mailing list might yield good results in the 0506 subscription campaign. The three approaches are:

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0506 Subscription Campaign “For which Zip Codes should we buy mailing lists?”

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  1. 0506 Subscription Campaign“For which Zip Codes should we buy mailing lists?” • This report (7 pages) will take three different approaches to identify Zip codes for which a purchased mailing list might yield good results in the 0506 subscription campaign. The three approaches are: • Where have we been most successful in the past? • Which promising Zips are under-penetrated? • Zip codes that provided “True New” subscribers in 0405 • After identifying possible Zip codes using each approach, I will combine the results to make my recommendations: At a minimum, I recommend buying mailing lists for the following Zip codes: 55419, 55410, 55416, 55449 (Blaine) and 55044 (Lakeville). I also recommend that these Zip codes not be mailed until August 2005 at the earliest. This is because of the tendency of “True New” subscribers to procrastinate. This will be discussed in this report. DATA SOURCEAll non-MOA demographic data used in this report comes from either Axciom Corp. or Applied Geographic Solutions. It is provided as part of the MS MapPoint software I used to create the maps used in this report. Use <PageUp> and <PageDown> to navigate C:\All my documents\Demographics\Zips where our patrons are\For which Zip codes to buy mailing lists.pps Prepared May 9, 2005 by Will Beauchemin

  2. Approach #1: Where have we been most successful in the past? Subscriber HHs as % of total HHs by Zip code Stillwater The maroon rings show the 5, 10, and 20-mile radii from Orchestra Hall. Carver8 subs (1.1%) Northfield108 subs (1.6%) The map shows by Zip code the % of total households (as of 2002) that have subscribed to the Minnesota Orchestra any season 0203-0506 to-date. Red and pink represent the highest percent penetration. Low-populated towns, like Carver, can be deceiving when they have a high penetration. If we consider both % penetration and the whole number of subscriber households, we can identify Zip codes with the greatest demonstrated potential for selling subscriptions. W I S C O N S I N Zip codes with 100+ subscribing HHs that have 3%+ subscription penetration:

  3. Number of households by Zip (2002) Approach #2: Which promising Zips are under-penetrated? Blaine In these three maps, yellow circles mark Zip codes within 75-miles of Orchestra Hall that have a high number of households but not a high % of subscriber households. The blue map shows these areas are under-penetrated (dark blue = <1% subscribers). When we look at the green map, below, we see these same under-penetrated areas and their average household spending for entertainment (as of 2002; dark green representing higher spending). When we combine high number of households with entertainment spending and under-penetration, two areas within 30 miles of Orchestra Hall stand out: Lakeville (55044) and Blaine (55449). We will look at these two Zip codes in the next two slides. Lakeville Entertainment spending: AVG annual HH by Zip (2002) Subscribing HHs as % of all HHs by Zip (0203-0506 to-date) Blaine Blaine Note that on this map we want to identify under-penetrated (dark blue) Zip codes. Subscriber HHs as % of total HHs by Zip code AVG annual HH entertainment spending (2002) Lakeville Lakeville

  4. Approach #2: Which promising Zips are under-penetrated (cont.): Close-up on Blaine (55449) Blaine Subscriber HHs as % of total HHs by Zip code AVG annual HH entertainment spending (2002) Blaine has 42 subscriber households (0203-0506 to-date). This is only a 0.96% penetration of all households that existed in 2002 in its Zip code (55449). Blaine’s average annual household spending for entertainment in 2002 was $3,107. To put this in perspective, St. Louis Park’s was $3,181 and Edina’s Zip codes are all slightly over $4,000 per year. Blaine’s figures are misleading, however, since many new upper-scale ($750,000+ home price) neighborhoods were being developed in 2002. Blaine is far wealthier and more populated than the 2002 figures suggest.

  5. Approach #2: Which promising Zips are under-penetrated (cont.): Close-up on Lakeville (55044) Lakeville Subscriber HHs as % of total HHs by Zip code AVG annual HH entertainment spending (2002) Lakeville has 104 subscriber households (0203-0506 to-date). This is only a 0.87% penetration of all households that existed in 2002 in its Zip code (55044). Lakeville’s average annual household spending for entertainment in 2002 was $3,566. To put this in perspective, St. Louis Park’s was $3,181 and Edina’s Zip codes are all slightly over $4,000 per year. According to the Metropolitan Council, between April 2000 and April 2002, Lakeville was among the Top 10 Metro towns with the most new households: Maple Grove - 1,621 Shakopee - 1,416 Blaine - 1,233 Apple Valley - 1,202 Woodbury  - 1,202 Lakeville - 1,166 Eden Prairie - 1,079 Plymouth - 1,009 Savage - 932 Minneapolis - 885 Lakeville’s growth, its high entertainment spending, and its under-penetration all point to it having the potential for gaining us new subscribers.

  6. Approach #3: Zip codes that provided “True New” subscribers in 0405 In the 0405 subscription campaign, we had 706 “True New” subscribers. These are patrons for whom we have no purchasing history until they bought an 0405 subscription. These “True New” came from 143 different Zip codes, but just 13 Zip codes contributed 23% of the total: “True new” subscribers, regardless of Zip code, appear to be procrastinators: more than half of them subscribed from August-October 2004. Therefore, “True New” probably should not be approached until August at the earliest.

  7. That the higher percent-penetrated Zip codes are lower in “True New” subscriptions might be due to their being at or near “saturation” (i.e., their sales potential). Blaine 55449 (source of 3 “True New” subs in 0405) Lakeville 55044 (source of 3 “True New” subs in 0405) Recommendations: Combining the three approaches All the information on this page is taken from previous slides. It is combined here to identify those Zip codes that have more than one reason for being “promising”. Approach #1: Where have we been most successful in the past? Zip codes with 100+ subscribing HHs that are 3%+ of total HHs in that Zip: Approach #3: “True New” Zip codes #9 in “True New” subscribers (11) #7 in “True New” subscribers (13) #2 in “True New” subscribers (14) Approach #2: Which promising Zips are under-penetrated? At a minimum, based on the results above, I recommend buying mailing lists for the following Zip codes: 55419, 55410, 55416, 55449 (Blaine) and 55044 (Lakeville). I also recommend that these Zip codes not be mailed until August 2005 at the earliest because of the tendency of “True New” HHs to subscribe late.

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