1 / 27

Psychology for Policy Analysis

Psychology for Policy Analysis. Introduction 9.24.12. Guess 2/3 the average!. Instructions: Guess what 2/3 of the average of all guesses in class will be, from 0-100 (inclusive). The winner will be the one closest to the 2/3 average of all guesses. Psychological assumptions… .

barr
Download Presentation

Psychology for Policy Analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Psychology for Policy Analysis Introduction 9.24.12

  2. Guess 2/3 the average! Instructions: Guess what 2/3 of the average of all guesses in class will be, from 0-100 (inclusive). The winner will be the one closest to the 2/3 average of all guesses.

  3. Psychological assumptions… • Permeate the social sciences • Rational view • Behavioral view • Biased judgment • Malleable preferences • Influenced by social context! • Psychology as a tool for policy!

  4. After this course you will • Be a better consumer of psychological research • Understanding the scientific method in social science • Becoming familiar with experimental design • Possess an additional set of tools for policy analysis, design and implementation • Example: Psychology and decision making in poverty

  5. A simple, yet profound fact

  6. A simple, yet profound fact Decisions stem not from the objective states of the world, but the individual mental representations created of those states!

  7. A simple, yet profound fact Decisions stem not from the objective states of the world, but the individual mental representations created of those states! This is NOT to claim that all behavior is erratic and unpredictable…

  8. Everyone is “irrational”.

  9. Classic Studies in Psychology • Milgram – obedience to authority • Zimbardo – Stanford prison experiment • Asch – conformity

  10. Classic Studies in Psychology • Milgram – obedience to authority • Zimbardo – Stanford prison experiment • Asch – conformity Each of these highlight the power of the situation!

  11. Cognitive Biases • Shortcuts for dealing with a busy world • Why: bounded rationality! • How much attention do we have?

  12. Cognitive Biases • System 1 versus System 2 • Intuition vs. Reasoning • Problems with monitoring and correction

  13. A bat and a ball together cost $1.10. The bat costs a dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

  14. Another example… • “Please indicate the average amount of time that you have spent watching, reading and listening to the media coverage of the situation in Iraq (TV, newspapers, magazines, online), per week, since the first week of the war.” Low Frequency Mid Frequency High Frequency • Interest, continued media consumption and confidence in assessments about the war

  15. Low

  16. Understanding human behavior • Rational agent model (normative) • Well-informed • Stable preferences • Controlled and calculating • Behavioral model (descriptive) • Mediocre judgment • Malleable preferences • Impulsive *but, behavior is often predictable!!

  17. Other concepts • Power of defaults • Organ donation Nudge, recent book by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein • Cognitive priming • Princeton students • Female Asian graduate students in mathematics • Channel factors matter! • Tetanus shots

  18. What should I keep in mind?

  19. The inconsistency of humans… • Chronic divergence between intentions and behaviors • Influence of context • Current vs. future self

  20. The inconsistency of humans… • Chronic divergence between intentions and behaviors • Influence of context • Current vs. future self • But: inconsistency ≠ unpredictability!

  21. A two part approach • Understanding mechanisms/assumptions • Designing and testing interventions The role of social context!

  22. Decisions stem not from the objective states of the world, but the individual mental representations created of those states!

  23. Guess 2/3 the average! Instructions: Guess what 2/3 of the average of all guesses in class will be, from 0-100 (inclusive). The winner will be the one closest to the 2/3 average of all guesses.

  24. Next week… • More on bounded awareness • Introduction to behavioral economics

More Related