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The Relationship Between GDP per capita & Health, Education and the Environment

The Relationship Between GDP per capita & Health, Education and the Environment. David Zafar Ahmed Stéphanie Eller Séverine Erismann December 4 th , 2009. Content. - Hypothesis - Statistical tools - GDP per capita - Results: - Health - Education - Environment - Conclusions

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The Relationship Between GDP per capita & Health, Education and the Environment

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  1. The Relationship Between GDP per capita & Health, Education and the Environment David Zafar Ahmed Stéphanie Eller Séverine Erismann December 4th, 2009

  2. Content • - Hypothesis • - Statistical tools • - GDP per capita • - Results: - Health - Education - Environment • - Conclusions • - Future work

  3. Hypothesis • Higher GDP per capita leads to better Health & Education systems, and more Environmental degradation resp. higher CO2-emmissions • Comparingdevelopmentindicators in Europe and Asia • Global Data: Reliable source • Validity: Methods & Indicators • Assumptions…

  4. Statistical Tools • PP1 • - Center- Mean, Median (Quartiles) • - Variability- Standard Deviation, Range • PP2 • - Comparison of means of two Regions- z-score, t-test, F-test- Outliers • PP3 • - Linear Correlation Analysis (r), Scatter plot, - Regression Model: Bivariate and Multiple Linear Regression, Multicollinearity, P-value, Coefficient, R-squared, Heteroskedaticity

  5. GDP per capita Box plot showing GDP per capita acrossregions • Outliers • Heterogenous economies

  6. Results: Health Relation between GDPPC and PHY in the world • Assumption: the higher the GDPPC, the higher are the healthindicators 1) Shape – linear or non- linear? Relationship or some association? 2) Problems of Multicollinearity?

  7. Relation between GDPPC and PHY in Asia Relation between GDPPC and PHY in Europe

  8. Results: Education Relation between GDPPC and ALR in the world • Assumption: the higher the GDPPC, the higher the ALR - Systematic Lack of Data - Possibly Non-Linear - Low correlation levels

  9. Relation between GDPPC and ALR in Europe Relation between GDPPC and ALR in Asia

  10. Results: Environment Assumption: the higher the GDPPC, the higher the level of CO2PC Relation between GDPPC and CO2PC in the world Highest Correlation (r = 0.7) Bivariate Regression:Worldr= 0.61Regional: Europe and Asia have the same explanatory power and 50% of CO2PC can be explained by GDPPC

  11. Relation between GDPPC and CO2PC in Asia Relation between GDPPC and CO2PC in Europe

  12. Conclusions • - What’s new about your approach? • New to us! • - What did you learn from this exercise? • Reaffirms some assumptions, but Statistical analysis can help provide a nuanced approach. • - Policy implications • Health-Model insufficient for concrete recommendations Education- Lack of info, resources dedicated to data-gathering • Environment- The relationship between GDP per capita CO2 per capita shows a stronger relationship in the regions of Asia and Europe than our selected health and education variables. Asia – Industrialization, environmental impactsEurope- Technology & Innovation, environmental protection

  13. Future work • Limitations • - Widespread lack of Educational data • - GPD per capita NOT the whole story! (necessary but not sufficient variable, condition for development, other indicators that help to explain these 3 areas, more data needed) • Multicollinearity • What’s Missing? • Polynomial Regression Analysis (Beyond You & Me) • Continued Research • These are complex issues, more indicators needed for comprehensive analysis • Disaggregate the Issues (breakdown into sub-categories within Health, Education, and Environment + alternatives to the categorisation of regions )

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