THE CHANGE EQUATION Building your Capability for Change

1. THE CHANGE EQUATION Building your Capability for Change Peter Duschinsky Managing Director, The Imaginist Company

2. The Purpose of this presentation To: • Examine what makes an organisation good at managing change • Introduce the key models and tools in the Change Equation methodology • Develop the concepts of: Change Readiness and Capability for Change • Show how the Change Equation can be incorporated into your standard practices: • at project level - to deliver consistently improved project outcomes • at programme level – to deliver Capability for Change into the organisation as a key outcome

3. 70% of projects fail to deliver the planned benefits

4. Internal Change Programmes fare no better • The Harvard Business School tracked the impact of change efforts among the Fortune 100 and found that only 30%produced a positive bottom-line improvement… • A survey of change programmes in 400 European organisations quoted by Prof. John Oakland, Emeritus Professor, Leeds University Business School found that: • 90% of change programmes faced major implementation problems • Only 30% delivered measurable business improvements • A CIPD survey of 800 executives found that reorganisations failed to deliver real improvement in performance in 40% of cases

5. What makes an organisation good at managing change? • Are there characteristics we can look out for? • Strong, visible, empowering, leadership • Clearly articulated and shared vision • Attention paid to supporting core values • High level of trust between managers and staff – decision-making devolved wherever possible • People able to give priority to new initiatives – overload issue managed well • Innovation encouraged and well managed • Good communication between departments • Collaboration with customers and suppliers • Adherence to standard ways of doing things • HR benefits and rewards aligned to business objectives

6. What makes an organisation good at managing change? • Does your organisation have these characteristics? • Then you are likely to have: • High level of involvement and commitment • Low resistance to change • Resilience in the face of challenges • Able to bring in changes rapidly and effectively in response to need • Capability for Change

7. Capability for Change • “Stock of capability - Attention and resources focused on people and processes, developing the organisation’s capability and resilience” (Rebecca Henderson, Harvard Business School) • Resilience: “The attitudes, skills and strengths, that enable individuals, and teams to thrive within organisational change” (The Taylor Clarke Partnership) • A Capability for Change is crucial if you want to respond to the accelerating pace of change and rising levels of business complexity • But it erodes through natural entropy and neglect, so requires continual investment and maintenance • Any Change / Transformation Programme needs this to be part of its core deliverables, but many don’t • The Change Equation provides the tools you need

8. The Principles behind the Change Equation The Change Equation is based on 3 key contentions: • Projects fail when the complexity of the project exceeds the capability of the organisation to cope • The changes needed in a complex project cannot be achieved within its lifecycle • A conventional ’command & control’ approach to management of complex change projects will not achieve consistently successful outcomes Let’s apply these…

9. Contention 1 “Projects fail when the complexity of the project exceeds the capability of the organisation to cope” • Management typically: • Underestimates the complexity of its projects • Overestimates the capability of their organisation • So if we want to be able to predict success or failure, we need to measure project complexity and organisational capability • We do this by undertaking a Change Readiness Assessment

10. Change Readiness Assessment • The Change Readiness Assessment (CRA) comprises: • Stakeholder interviews, review of project documentation, analysis, senior management team workshop, report & recommendations • It allows us to: • identify the underlying causes of low and negative ROI on projects • quantify the barriers to success • predict the success or failure of projects • deliver a Route Map and Action Plan to help clients gain ownership of the risks and improve performance • Undertaking a CRA at the planning stage will improve a project’s outcomes • Integrating CRA into your standard project planning process will deliver consistently improved project outcomes

11. Capability/Complexity Indicator Organisational Culture Evolution model Process Management Capability Maturity model Change Readiness Assessment Exponential Complexity tool We use a number of key models and tools We will come back to these…

12. Contention 2 “The changes needed in a complex project cannot be achieved within its lifecycle” The actions needed to achieve and embed behaviour change usually have to be linked to a wider programme Building these into a Change (or Transformation) Programme will enable the development of an organisation’s Capability for Change The Change Equation principles provide the framework The CRA Route Maps and Action Plans provide the content

13. Contention 3 “A conventional ’command & control’ approach to management of complex change projects will not achieve consistently successful outcomes” Conventional change management interventions attempt to impose change…so people give up, fall back on ‘what’s in it for me’ and the change project fails   In a complex project, newly emergent ways of working and new forms of organisation need to be recognised, nurtured and embedded You need to employ project and programme managers with the right skill-sets to achieve this

14. Integrating the Change Equation into standard practice • Audit • Undertake CRAs on selected projects • Stakeholder face-to-face interviews • Analyse • Identify and quantify key common barriers • Adapt methodology, terminology • Integrate • CRA into standard project management practice • Change Equation principles into programme architecture • Implement • Employ project and programme managers with right skill-sets • Consistent improvement in project outcomes • Capability for Change

15. Capability/Complexity Indicator Organisational Culture Evolution model Process Management Capability Maturity model Change Readiness Assessment: Models and tools Exponential Complexity tool

16. Capability/Complexity Indicator Organisational Culture Evolution model Process Management Capability Maturity model Change Readiness Assessment: Models and tools Exponential Complexity tool

17. Assessing an Organisation’s Culture Levels of organisational culture 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 • ORGANISATION • ‘External’ Focus: • The organisation’s needs and direction • Systems and processes • Efficiency • THE INDIVIDUAL • ‘Internal’ Focus: • Culture • People’s perceptions, attitudes, motivations, aspirations • Effectiveness Point of balance

18. 8 7 Systemist Imaginist 3 4 Dialectic Aligned 1 Pragmatist/Anarchic 2 Structuralist 5 Pragmatist/Aligned 6 Empiricist 9 Pragmatist/Empowered Organisational Culture Evolution Model INTERNAL EXTERNAL

19. 4 Aligned Organisational Culture Evolution Model 8 7 Systemist Imaginist 3 Dialectic 1 Pragmatist/Anarchic 2 Structuralist 5 Pragmatist/Aligned 6 Empiricist 9 Pragmatist/Empowered INTERNAL EXTERNAL

20. 8 7 Systemist Imaginist 4 3 Aligned Dialectic 1 Pragmatist/Anarchic 2 Structuralist 5 Pragmatist/Aligned 6 Empiricist 9 Pragmatist/Empowered Organisational Culture Evolution Model INTERNAL EXTERNAL

21. 8 7 Systemist Imaginist 4 3 Aligned Dialectic 1 Pragmatist/Anarchic 2 Structuralist 5 Pragmatist/Aligned 6 Empiricist 9 Pragmatist/Empowered Organisational Culture Evolution Model 3Rationalist INTERNAL EXTERNAL

22. 8 7 Systemist Imaginist 4 3 Aligned Dialectic 1 Pragmatist/Anarchic 2 Structuralist 5 Pragmatist/Aligned 6 Empiricist 9 Pragmatist/Empowered Organisational Culture Evolution Model INTERNAL EXTERNAL

23. 3 Dialectic 8 7 Systemist Imaginist 4 Aligned 1 Pragmatist/Anarchic 2 Structuralist 5 Pragmatist/Aligned 6 Empiricist 9 Pragmatist/Empowered Organisational Culture Evolution Model INTERNAL EXTERNAL

24. 8 7 Systemist Imaginist 3 4 Dialectic Aligned 1Pragmatist/Anarchic 2 Structuralist 5 Pragmatist/Aligned 6 Empiricist 9 Pragmatist/Empowered Where are you now? Organisational Culture Evolution Model INTERNAL EXTERNAL

25. 8 7 Systemist Imaginist 3 4 Dialectic Aligned 1 Pragmatist/Anarchic 2 Structuralist 5 Pragmatist/Aligned 6 Empiricist 9 Pragmatist/Empowered Where are you now? Where do you need to be? INTERNAL EXTERNAL

26. 5. Optimising Effective process Continuing Improvement 4. Quantitatively Managed Measured process Quality and Productive Improvement 3. Defined Standard process Consistent Execution 2. Managed Repeatable process Controlled environment Software Engineering Institute 1. Initial Ad hoc process Chaotic Assessing an Organisation’s Process Management Capability Where are you? Where do you need to be? What’s stopping you?

27. The Organisational Capability Indicator

28. How should we measure complexity? LOW Complexity HIGH ‘Developmental’ Apply management improvement techniques to “make it work better” Little impact on people ‘Transitional’ Replace one system or process with another Some impact on people ‘Transformational’ Scrap whole operation/business and start again Major impact on people ‘Developmental’ Apply management improvement techniques to “make it work better” ‘Transitional’ Replace one system or process with another ‘Transformational’ Scrap whole operation/business and start again e.g. Complicated = not simple, but outcomes are ultimately knowable Complex = not simple and outcomes are never fully knowable

29. Terminal 5 Over 28,000 lost bags, 700 cancelled planes and more than 150,000 disrupted passengers “The Terminal 5 debacle is a national disgrace” Daily Mail, 14 April 2008

30. Shortage of staff car parking spaces Only one employee security checkpoint operating Some staff unable to log on to the computer system Hand-held communication software running slow No managers on the ground to re-allocate work Shortage of bar-reading storage bins Baggage handling staff late in arriving 60 staff queue to get into terminal 6am: 3 planes leave without bags Bags pile up, unattended By midday 20 flights cancelled 4pm: baggage conveyor belt grinds to a halt, BA suspends all baggage check-in So what went wrong?

31. “The Perfect Storm” • In 2004, HP's project managers knew all of the things that could go wrong with their ERP centralisation programme. But they just didn't plan for so many of them to happen at once. • The project eventually cost HP $160 million in order backlogs and lost revenue—more than five times the project's estimated cost. • Gilles Bouchard, then-CIO of HP's global operations, says: "We had a series of small problems, none of which individually would have been too much to handle. But together they created the perfect storm.” • Complexity is exponential!

32. Complexity is Exponential ”We live in a world that can change exponentially – but we have brains that are hardwired to plot things out linearly - the software in our brains compels us to think about progressions as being simple arithmetic ones So as a species, and a society, we deal poorly with uncertainty in non-linear domains.” Prof Albert Bartlett, University of Colorado • That’s one good reason why management typically under-estimates the complexity of projects!

33. How should we measure complexity? LOW Complexity HIGH ‘Developmental’ Apply management improvement techniques to “make it work better” Little impact on people ‘Transitional’ Replace one system or process with another Some impact on people ‘Transformational’ Scrap whole operation/business and start again Major impact on people Your project is too complex – break it down into separate projects and employ a programme manager ‘Developmental’ Apply management improvement techniques to “make it work better” ‘Transitional’ Replace one system or process with another ‘Transformational’ Scrap whole operation/business and start again e.g. Complexity Factor Complexity Factor A complex project – needs a dedicated project team A complicated project – needs an experienced project manager Not simple - needs some project management Simple project Exponential Complexity Model Exponential Complexity Model

34. The Exponential Complexity Tool • Which 3 factors? They must be: • Common to all projects • Quantifiable by stakeholders • Good predictors of the complexity of a project • The Exponential Complexity Tool uses the following 3 factors: • Number of people or Stakeholders involved • (More people = more complex = higher risk) • Number of business activities or Processes affected • (More ambitious = more complex = higher risk) • Elapsed Time to implement (in months) • (Longer to implement = more complex = higher risk)

35. The Exponential Complexity Tool • Think about a project you are familiar with • Where on the scale do you think you are? • Think about a project you are familiar with • Where on the scale do you think you are? • Now do the numbers: Stakeholders x Processes x Time Your project is too complex – break it down into separate projects and employ a programme manager 20 200 18 mths Complexity Factor A complex project – needs a dedicated project team 72,000 A complicated project – needs an experienced project manager Not simple - needs some project management Simple project Exponential Complexity Model

36. Combining Capability and Complexity

37. Deliverables: Action Plan

38. 3 Dialectic EXTERNAL INTERNAL (Organisation) (Individual) Deliverables: Route Map 8 7 Systemist Imaginist 4 Aligned 1 Pragmatist/Anarchic 2 You are here Structuralist You need to be here 5 Pragmatist/Aligned 6 Empiricist 9 Pragmatist/Empowered

39. Summary • The Change Equation methodology is designed to be integrated into standard practice: • at Project level – CRA ensures Change Readiness and deliver consistent improvement in change project outcomes • at Programme level – Change Equation principles, Route Maps and Action Plans provides framework and content to deliver organisational Capability for Change as a key outcome (NB this needs to be coupled with strong, visible, creative leadership – we hope you agree that’s a given…) • If you think this approach might be of value to your organisation, please contact us

40. Peter Duschinsky Managing Director The Imaginist Company Email: peterd@imaginist.co.uk Tel: 020 8201 1478 Mob: 07801 802 571 Web: http://www.imaginist.co.uk ‘The Change Equation’ is available from Amazon.co.uk