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LCS and population density ~An implication of the Shiga scenario~

The AIM Workshop 2008. LCS and population density ~An implication of the Shiga scenario~. Koji Shimada Ritsumeikan Univ. 17 February 2008. Background.

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LCS and population density ~An implication of the Shiga scenario~

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  1. The AIM Workshop 2008 LCS and population density~An implication of the Shiga scenario~ Koji Shimada Ritsumeikan Univ. 17 February 2008

  2. Background • According to the Shiga scenario, in transport sector, we have to pursue a path to reduce automobile passenger traffic demands (p-km) by 44% from BaU case. • In order to follow the path, we have to: • reduce the automobile trip share; (66%→46%) • increase the public transport trip share. (25%→37%) • reduce the average trip length by 25%

  3. Passenger transport demand by mode

  4. Trip share relation between automobile and public transport in 275 cities (Japan, 2000)

  5. Population density andtraffic share in 238 cities (Japan, 2000) Need to triple the population density!

  6. Population density and trip lengthin 190 cities (Kansai region, 2000)

  7. Population density and trip lengthin 35 cities (Shiga, 2000) Need to triple the population density?

  8. An image of tripling population density Ohmi-hachiman city (1000 p/km2)

  9. (出所)「国土交通省近畿地方整備局琵琶湖河川事務所提供」(2003年10月～2004年4 月に高度1kmより撮影） <横: 2.2km 縦: 1.5km> (以下航空写真: 　　　　　　　同出所) Otsu city (3000 p/km2)

  10. Conclusion • To halve the CO2 emission in Shiga by 2030, we identified a path to reduce automobile passenger traffic demand by 44% compared to BaU case. • The path requires both automobile trip share’s decrease to 46% and public transport share’s increase to 37%. • The path also demands a 25% trip length reduction. • Tripling the population density would be one of the options to follow the path. • Although the relation between population density and automobile average trip length is still vague.

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