Saudamini Das, Asso Prof. Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi &

1. Awareness as an adaptation strategy for reducing health impact from Heat Waves: Evidence from a Disaster Risk Management Program in India Economics of Climate Change Adaptation Workshop, UNDP, ADAPT ASIA-PACIFIC Workshop, 24-26 Oct 2012, Bangkok The views expressed are those of the presenter and should not be attributed to either UNDP or USAID. Furthermore, it is strongly recommended that both the PowerPoint slides and the videos of the presentation of content included herein are viewed in conjunction in order that statements appearing in the PowerPoint slides are not interpreted out of context. Saudamini Das, Asso Prof. Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi & SANDEE Fellow

2. Heat Waves – Spell of hot & humid weather Under normal conditions, the body’s internal thermostat produces perspiration that evaporates and cools the body. In extreme heat and high humidity, evaporation is slowed and the body has to work extra hard to maintain normal temperature. If core body temperature exceeds 40.6 C, heat stroke occurs causing death.

3. Formal Definition: Heat Waves(Indian Meteorological Department) • If normal temperature < 40 C Heat Wave  + 5 or 6 C Severe Heat Wave  +7 C • If normal Temperature > 40C Heat Wave  +3 or 4 C Severe Heat Wave  +5 C • If max temperature is around 45 C for two days (40 for coastal area), it is called heat wave condition

4. Background of Heat Waves • Global phenomena • Examples of high mortality: Chicago 1995, 1999; Mexico 1998; France, Italy and many parts of Europe 2003; Orissa 1998; AP 2003 • International Response: • Study effects on health (California Study), • Identify risk and effective intervention (Euro HEAT Project), • Heat warning, activation of social network, • Health education and awareness etc. • No evaluation of health education / awareness programs

5. Literature linking Heat Waves and Mortality • Link between mortality and temperature rise is established (Deschenes 2010; Deschenes & Greenstone 2008, 2007; Menne & Ebi 2006; Basu & Samet 2002) • Studies on heat wave incidences • Individual event analyses(O’Neil et al. 2003, 2009; Smoger 1998; Semenza et al. 1996; Naughton et al. 2002) • Case cross over approach(Michelle L Bell et al. 2008) • Impact evaluation of state responses (heat alerts) by regression discontinuity method (Alberini et al (2008)

6. Heat Waves in Odisha General features of the State • 30 districts • 10 Agro-climatic zones • Per capita annual income: US$220 • Below poverty line: 47.15% • Workforce in agri = 75% • Urban population = 15%

7. Heat Wave Deaths in Odisha HWDs

8. Temperature anomaly: distribution of max summer temperature and heat wave days in Bhubaneswar Max Temp

9. Odisha Government Interventions Before 2002 (1999-2002) Calamity Committee meeting (February and March) HW warning, JalChhatra, Health facility, rescheduling of work hours, school timing, bus timing etc. Television discussions by health department Additional after 2002 (DRM Project) Awareness generation through multiple media Awareness activities (GOs/NGOs)

10. Posters & Advertisements

11. Logic Model for Awareness Program

12. Study Objectives • Does intensive dissemination campaign on heat waves help reduce deaths more? (DRM vs. non-DRM) • Did the Awareness Campaign and Grass root program compliment each other?

14. Methodology • Difference-in-Difference (DID) for the 1st objective • Examine difference in deaths between DRM and non-DRM districts • Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference (DDD) for the second • Difference between DRM & non-DRM districts for intensive campaign years over no campaign years • Panel Data (13 (1998-2010) years, 30 districts) from multiple secondary sources

15. What is DID? Deaths DRM Non-DRM DID Before After Time 2 period, 2 group set up

16. Results -1: (Diff-in-Diff between DRM & non-DRM districts)

17. Result – 2: DDD results for variable of interest (District Fixed Effect Poisson Estimates) • Averted Deaths for DRM districts = 155 (170 with revised data) • Das & Smith, Climate Change Economics (2012), Vol 3, No 2.

18. Economic efficiency of DRM project for heat waves adaptation • Project cost (2002-2008): US$27m for 125 districts • Share of Odisha (16 districts): US$3.4m or Rs167m (8 disasters were covered) • Expenditure on heat waves: Rs20.88m • Cost per life saved: Rs0.12m • VSL for Odisha at 2002-08 average PCI:Rs14.17m (118 times higher) • VSL for India: Rs13.7-14.2 to Rs55.5-60.6million at 2000 - 01prices ≈ Rs17.8-18.4 to Rs72 -78.12m at 2002-08 PCI

19. Conclusions & Policy Implications • ‘Issuing heat warning and making people aware of the dos and don’ts during heat waves’ seems to be a successful adaptation strategy • Strategy disseminated intensively in DRM districts of Odisha witnessed reduced heat wave deaths despite severe heat wave conditions. The averted deaths around 170 in these districts. • Media use and grass root programs seem to have complemented each other. • The results are not strongly robust – need to be re-examined with more detailed data on deaths, awareness media and heat wave measures

20. THANKS !!!!