Climate change impacts on European mineral soils -

1. Climate change impacts on European mineral soils - Pete Smith Professor of Soils & Global Change School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK E-mail: pete.smith@abdn.ac.uk CarboEurope-IP Annual Meeting, Poznan, Poland, October 2007

2. Published in three papers • Smith, J.U., Smith, P., Wattenbach, M., Zaehle, S., Hiederer, R., Jones, R.J.A., Montanarella, L., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Reginster, I., Ewert, F., 2005. Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990-2080. Global Change Biology11,2141–2152. (doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01075.x). • Smith, P., Smith, J.U., Wattenbach, M., Meyer, J., Lindner, M., Zaehle, S., Hiederer, R., Jones, R., Montanarella, L., Rounsevell, M., Reginster, I., Kankaanpää, S. 2006. Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European forests, 1990-2100. Canadian Journal of Soil Science86, 159-169. • Schröter, D., Cramer, W., Leemans, R., Prentice, I.C., Araújo, M.B., Arnell, N.W., Bondeau, A., Bugmann, H., Carter, T., Garcia, C.A., de la Vega-Leinert, A.C., Erhard, M., Ewert, F., Glendining, M., House, J.I., Kankaanpää, S., Klein, R.J.T., Lavorel, S., Lindner, M., Metzger, M.J., Meyer, J., Mitchell, T., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Sabaté, S., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Smith, J.U., Smith, P., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke, K., Thuiller, W., Tuck, G., Zaehle, S. & Zierl, B. 2005. Ecosystem service supply and human vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science310 (5752), 1333-1337.

3. Climate data: 2080-1990 temperature Note: 2080 and 1990 are 30 year averages of 2051-2080 and 1961-1990 respectively

4. Climate data: 2080-1990 water balance Note: 2080 and 1990 are 30 year averages of 2051-2080 and 1961-1990 respectively

5. Soils data – SOC

6. Soils data – Clay %

7. Data • NPP and litter input data • NPP calculated using LPJ-DGVM for ATEAM grid (g C m-2) and used driectly for croplands and grasslands, and used in the EFISCEN model to calculate litter inputs to the soil - including effects of changing NPP (using LPJ outputs) and effects of changing age-class structure (projected with EFISCEN from national forest inventories)

8. Change in litter inputs 1990-2080

9. Land-use change Forest area in 2080 under the four SRES scenarios

10. Land-use change Forest area in 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080 under the B2 scenario

11. RothC co 2 RESIDUE soil surface DPM RPM BIO HUM IOM -1 -1 -1 k=10 y k=0.3 y k=0.66 y k -1 =0.02 y

12. Climate-only impact on SOC (effect of different climate scenarios) (HadCM3) Smith et al. (2006b)

13. Climate-only impact on cropland and grassland SOC - (effect of different climate scenarios) (HadCM3) J.U. Smith et al. (2005)

14. Change in forest SOC – climate only Smith et al. (2006b)

15. Change in grassland SOC – climate only J.U. Smith et al. (2005)

16. Change in cropland SOC – climate only J.U. Smith et al. (2005)

17. Temperature Water balance Change in SOC - climate only SOC Note: 2080 and 1990 are 30 year averages of 2051-2080 and 1961-1990 respectively

18. Comparing climate-only with climate&litter effects in forest soils (HadCM3) Smith et al. (2006b)

19. Change in litter inputs 1990-2080

20. Comparing climate-only with climate&NPP effects for croplands & grasslands (HadCM3-A2) Climate Only Climate and NPP J.U. Smith et al. (2005)

21. Effect of technology in croplands & grasslands (HadCM3-A2) Minimum Climate Only Climate & NPP Climate & NPP & Tech Maximum J.U. Smith et al. (2005)

22. Change in forest SOC – climate & litter Climate only Smith et al. (2006b)

23. Change in forest SOC – climate & litter Climate&litter Smith et al. (2006b)

24. Change in grassland SOC – climate&NPP&technology Climate only J.U. Smith et al. (2005)

25. Change in grassland SOC – climate&NPP&technology Climate&NPP&technology J.U. Smith et al. (2005)

26. Change in cropland SOC – climate&NPP&technology Climate only J.U. Smith et al. (2005)

27. Change in cropland SOC – climate&NPP&technology Climate&NPP&technology J.U. Smith et al. (2005)

28. Climate impact on mineral SOC • Our results suggest that increased productivity due to climate change will counteract its negative impacts • Improved technology (in arable and cropland) and the age-class structure of Europe’s forests suggest that SOC in mineral soils might increase in Europe over the next 75 years • Even in the worst case, climate change could account for a maximum of 10% of the SOC loss reported by Bellamy et al. (2005).

29. Looking to the future…more work on organic soils Organic soil restoration vs. mineral soil sequestration Data from: Smith et al. (2007a)

30. Thank you for your attention