Climate change impacts

1. Climate change impacts Lučka Kajfež BogatajUniversity of Ljubljana, Slovenia

2. OUTLINE • Climate change scenario logics • Climate change as environmental issue • Climate change as a problem of national and international security • Risks of mis-understanding of scenarios by policy makers and politicians

3. Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Climate Change Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) Key Questions • Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably? • Can we cope with the future demands on water? • Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty? • Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change? • Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems? Biodiversity The Perfect Storm? (Beddington, 2009)

5. Exploration of future climate is relevant… • Where are we heading? • Actions now influence the future: • Inertia (lifetime avg. power plant > 40 years;lifetime CO2 in atmosphere > 100 years • Climate system may change irreversibly, we may pass thresholds… • We shall (or need) to act: • Prevent certain futures from happening • Adapt to certain futures

6. The Global Scenario Group "taxonomy of the future” http://www.gtinitiative.org/perspectives/taxonomy.html

7. A1 B1 Hyper individualism Business class Creative societies Global sustainability Markets first Market World Changing course ‘The end of history’ New global age ‘Our Common Future ‘ Cybertopia Policy first Just do it Shared responsabilities The hundred flowers Ecologically driven Have & have- nots Sustainability first Over the edge Regional stewardship New Empires Security first Prism Provincial enterprise Transformed World ‘Clash of civilizations’ Cultural pluralism ‘No Logo’ Great transitions Turbulent neighbourhoods Change without progress B2 Fortress World Voluntary simplicity Battlefield A2 Barbarization Local stewardship Tribal society

8. There are many types of scenarios

9. SRES scenarios logics • Matrixes from pairs ofindependent and unrelated axes. • Use axes to deduce scenariologics for the four quadrantsof the matrix (and name them).

10. Examples: scenario logics (deductive) Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentIntergovernmental Panelon Climate Change MEA IPCC (SRES) www.peer.eu

11. From exploratory to anticipatory scenarios

12. IPCC new approach with scenariosRepresentative Concentration Pathways Vir: Van Vuuren et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

14. Old /SRES and new /RCPs scenarios Knutti & Sedlacek (2012)

16. Primary energy and oil consumption

18. Best Case Worst Case Most likely

20. Provisional Scenario Analysis 2050-2100 High Climate Sensitivity Worst Case 6-8ºC 3-6ºC Failed Mitigation Policies Successful Mitigation Policies 2-5ºC Best Case 2-3ºC Low Climate Sensitivity

21. Europe: Geographic Changes +10 -1 +50% -50% 2080-2099Minus 1980-1999(A1B)

22. Climate change effectsonhydroelectric production potential

23. Relative change of average (1961-90) total discharge volumes calculated with WaterGAP 2.1 for the 2070s

26. SCENARIOS • Have the ability to address complexissues in an integrated manner. • Have the ability to deal with surprises,system changes, bifurcations. • Are an excellent tool for communication • Possibilities for participation are large.

27. Communication betweenpolicy-makers and scientists ”Speaking truth to power” Aaron Wildavsky

28. Scenarios communication problem: differences in attitudes and behaviors (Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000)

29. What is the objective when we communicate scenarios to „users“? • To raise the awareness of politicians, managers and decisionmakers about the uncertainty of the future. • To alertthem to emerging problems and possible surprises in the political/business environment • To help managers and decision makers to “think big”about a problem – creative, comprehensive, open.

30. What might be their (negative)reaction? • Raising awareness can be understood as criticism of their present program (who wants to disscuss uncertain future). • A lot of problems already present, no need to add extra burden • General lack of visions, shortsighted plans very common, thinking „inside the box“ • To raise the awareness of politicians, managers and decisionmakers about the uncertainty of the future. • To alertthem to emerging problems and possible surprises in thepolitical/businessenvironment • To help managers and decision makers to “think big”about a problem – creative, comprehensive, open.

31. Scenarios help to reduce ourover-confidence into the future Understanding uncertainty Key sources of uncertainty when looking into the future: • Ignorance: our scientific understanding is incomplete (‘known unknowns’ & ‘unknown unknowns’) • Surprise : unexpected events bound to alter future (inherent unpredictability) • Volition: future human choices matter Raskin et al., 2002

32. The goal of scenarios is not to predict the future but to tell what decisionmakers need to know to take meaningful action in the present • There is never enough information if you don’t want to decide. • Dealing with Climate Uncertainties requires Political Leadership

33. The features of media reporting of climate change scenarios • Informed Citizens is key for understanding climate change action (the lack of publicunderstanding is a majorobstacle) • The media is an important intersectionbetween science and civil society, acting as a frame/filter of scientific knowledge on climate change matters. • A communication for behavoural change needs independent reporting, well-informed mediaandalso citizens’ media. • Local media have a crucial role to play beyond disseminating information. There is more information on global processes of climate change but much weaker information at a local level, where the actors in climate change adaptation are.

34. The features of media reporting of climate change scenarios (reality) • Media coverage of climate change generally lacks in-depth analysis • Very rarely the media present science in a responsible way (a climate-movement at the ground level is needed to put pressure on politicians) • The framing of climate change often reinforces the uncertainty of climate change, casting not only doubts on the science of climate change but also posing reservations on the economic costs of taking action. • The media too often give shelter to marginal positions that lie outside the scientific consensus in a proportion way bigger than their academic weight.

35. Warning for the policy makers and media Scenarios are not • Predictions : A likely description of the future state of a system – thusunconditional upon major exogenous assumptions. • Extrapolation: A continuation of a trend • Pure speculation: Any statement on plausability is even impossible

36. For instance, World economy in 100Years For instance, climate system For instance, Weather next week Available theories oncausaility agreement onthese theories Information on relevantparameters

37. Example of qualitative scenarios (narrative descriptions of future developments (i.e. presented as storylines) Communication? ENVSEC, 2012

38. 3 scenarios for Slovenia (2008) Participants formulated three distinct scenarios: Clueless, Green Oasis and Chameleon AnotherexampleofqualitativescenariosCommunication? Effect? NONE

39. Projekt načrtovanja scenarijev Scenariji razvoja Slovenije do leta 2035 Trendi in priložnosti v času podnebnih sprememb Leta 2008 v okviru Službe Vlade za razvoj, s pomočjo agencije Scenario Development tri zgodbe = scenariji

40. 3 scenariji: ključni poudarki Brez idej :zanikanje Zelena oaza:ozaveščenost in izobraževanje Kameleon:premalo in prepozno

41. 3 scenariji: ključni poudarki BREZ IDEJ – odsotnost vladnega delovanja in zanikanje motečih učinkov na okolje - upanje, da se problemi rešijo sami od sebe. Korektivni ukrepi: ko je že prepozno. Vse bolj ekstremni vremenski pojavi Ni tehnološkega razvoja  Slovenija prostor za umazane tehnologije. ZELENA OAZA – zgodnji ukrepi, tehnološke spremembe, spremembe stališč in vrednot. Politike in predpisi: se izvajajo v največji možni meri. Gospodarstvo: manj ogljično intenzivno. Splošni nacionalni ponos, “sreča”  doseganje trajne spremembe. Globalno sodelovanje. KAMELEON – zgodba evolucije: majhna, posamezna prilagajanja; veliko majhnih korakov brez nove poti. Ni proaktivne naravnanosti. Posamezni ukrepi, brez usklajevanja ali prepričanja.

42. Climate change as a threat to national security Climatechange • is a threat multiplier • will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies • increases number and intensity of conflictsandreduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution • leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena

43. The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world • The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substance http://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://

44. Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories Main trajectories WGBU 2007 (modified)

45. Water Scarcity Demography Crop Decline Hunger Coastal Risks Recent Conflicts A Multiplier for Instability

46. National Security – Climate change linkages • In every country National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests. • Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events • Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change. • Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence • Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc. • Recommendation for states policies

47. Solutions? There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security

48. Disinterest Disarray Confusion Policy in a changing climateBarriers Lack of information Ignorance Split Incentives Cultural barriers Impatience Maladministration High discount rates Regulatory barriers Mispricing Externalities and price structures

49. Policy in a changing climateHopefully....

50. Human-driven erosion of resilience Source: IGBP 2007