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A Proposed National ESMF-based Modeling System (NEMS)

A Proposed National ESMF-based Modeling System (NEMS). NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems. Louis Uccellini 31 July 2007. ~ Executive Summary ~. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems. Current (2007). Current - 2007. GDAS.

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A Proposed National ESMF-based Modeling System (NEMS)

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  1. A Proposed National ESMF-basedModeling System (NEMS) NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Louis Uccellini 31 July 2007

  2. ~ Executive Summary ~ NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Current (2007) Current - 2007 GDAS NAM anal GFS anal GFS SREF HUR NAM GENS/NAEFS RDAS AQ RTOFS CFS

  3. ~ Executive Summary ~ Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches • Multi-model ensembles • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System • Entering the NPOESS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • GPS soundings • Higher resolution surface radiance data • All models run within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Hybrid vertical coordinate • Coupled • Spanning all scales • Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

  4. ~ Executive Summary ~ NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 - 2015 Rap Refresh Computing factor: 81 Reforecast SREF WAV HUR NAM CFS MFS Global GENS/NAEFS GFS RTOFS RTOFS AQ Hydro / NIDIS/FF AQ CFS & MFS Regional RDAS Hydro GDAS

  5. Overview • A conceptual prototype for a National next-generation production suite • ESMF-based Modeling System • Planned capabilities • Planned components • Criteria for inclusion • Summary “Model of the day” is not a scientifically supportable solution for the future

  6. Concurrent execution of global and regional forecast models (Phase 1) Analysis Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2 • Common Modeling Infrastructure is ESMF-based • In-core Solution • Single executable for analysis, all model domains • No file writes to (or reads from) disk except for saving output • Provides • Concurrent execution of ensembles • Single executable, multiple members • “On-the-fly” breeding throughout the forecast from all members • More efficient execution of rapid updating • In-core updating for analysis increments • Regional (CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Caribbean, Guam & Puerto Rico) • Global (if requirements and resources)

  7. Concurrent execution of global and regional forecast models (Phase 2) Analysis Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 • Real time boundary and initial conditions available hourly • “On-demand” downscaling to local applications • Similar to current hurricane runs but run either • Centrally at OR • Locally (B.C, I. C. retrieved from on-line data) • No boundary or initial conditions older than 1 hour • Flexibility for “over capacity” runs (e.g. Fire Wx, Hurricane) • Using climate fraction must be planned • No impact on remainder of services • For NEXTGEN: A consistent solution from global to local with a single forecast system and ensembles providing estimate of uncertainty Model Region 2 Local Solution

  8. National ESMF*-based Modeling System (NEMS)(uses standard ESMF compliant software) Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Dynamics (1,2) Physics (1,2,3) Analysis -------------- Other Forecast Systems Coupler 1-1 1-2 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-3 Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Post processor & Product Generator Verification Resolution change ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc) * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL 2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, NCAR or NOAA institutional commitments Components are: Dynamics (spectral, FV, NMM, FIM, ARW, FISL, COAMPS…)/Physics (GFS, NRL, NCAR, GMAO, ESRL…)

  9. Planned NEMS Capabilities • Components and capabilities of the NEMS infrastructure • Configuration control • Domain • Resolution (horizontal, vertical) • Standardized fixed field generation (WPS - topography, land use, etc) • Tracer definition • Observations ingest, formatting, QC, etc libraries • Nesting (static and moving, telescoping, 1-way, 2-way) • Concurrent ensemble execution (single executable, multiple members) • Data assimilation (3D-var and advanced techniques) • In-core updating for analysis increments and boundary conditions • Model dynamics and physics including • Atmosphere • Ocean • Land surface and hydrology • Air Quality and trace gases • Post-processor and product generator • Standard operational verification • Documentation for operational and research users

  10. Planned NEMS Capabilities (cont) • Modeling Research • Global and regional • Institutionally supported components • Atmosphere • GFS (NCEP) • NOGAPS (Navy) • FV (NASA, GFDL) • NMM (NCEP) • ARW (ESRL, NCAR, AFWA) • COAMPS (Navy) • FIM (ESRL) • FISL (NCEP) • Ocean • MOM4 (GFDL) • HYCOM (NCEP, Navy) • Land surface and hydrology • Noah (NCEP) • VIC (Princeton, U. Wash) • MOSAIC (NASA) • Sacramento (OHD) • Smirnova LSM (ESRL) • Air Quality and trace gases • CMAQ (EPA, ARL) • GOCART (NASA) • NAAPS (Navy) Under construction Will include in future

  11. Planned NEMS Capabilities (cont) • Operational Models (NCEP only) • Global Forecast System • GFS • Global Ensemble (GENS, NAEFS) • GFS • North American (NAM) • NMM • Short-range Ensemble (SREF) • NMM • ARW • Physics diversity • High Resolution Window (HRW) • NMM • ARW • Air Quality (AQ) • CMAQ • Land Surface & Hydrology (LIS) • Noah • Rapid Refresh (RR) • Dynamics TBD • GSD physics • Hurricane (HUR) • NMM for hurricanes • HYCOM • Seasonal Climate Forecast (CFS) • GFS for climate • MOM4 Will include in Operational NEMS

  12. Criteria for Inclusion in NEMS • Research • Adherence to ESMF standards • Institutional support for code • Participation in system evolution • Operations • Research criteria plus: • Standard “Transition to Operations” criteria • NCEP: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/ • Forecast performance benefits • IT compatibility • Efficiency • Sustainability • AMOP (Navy) • AFWA IPT process (USAF)

  13. Supplementaries

  14. Enhance NWS forecast services • Provide greater focus on high-impact events • Increase information content in NWS guidance products • Probabilistic and ensemble methods • Accelerate accuracy of numerical guidance • Take on additional environmental information service responsibilities • Increase analysis and verification services for NWS field offices • Efficient Grid Initialization • Analysis of Record (and RTMA) • Gridded Verification

  15. Additional forcing and enabling factors • Computing • ~1,000 processors  10,000 processors • Emphasis on highly scalable processes • Ensembles scale linearly and “perfectly” • Common Modeling Infrastructure • ESMF-based system • Provides maximum flexibility for dynamics and physics components • Common post-processor and product generator, configured as an ESMF component • Concurrent coupling • Concurrent ensemble runs • Observations (number and availability) • Advanced Polar and Geostationary sounders (~100 X greater) • NPOESS (<60 minutes globally) – 2015 (or later) • METOP (1-4) – 2007 • NPP (90-120 minutes globally) – 2009 • GOES-R – 2013 (or later) • Next-generation Doppler radar • Next-Generation Air Traffic-control System (NEXTGEN) • Geographically consistent solutions • Global to terminal scales • At least hourly updating globally • “Completing the Forecast,” “Fair Weather” reports

  16. Additional forcing and enabling factors (cont) • Advanced probabilistic (post-processing) techniques becoming available through NAEFS project • Bias correction • 2nd moment correction • Classical (frequentist) and Bayesian techniques • Advanced dissemination strategies • E.g. NOMADS (“Fat server/Thin Client” technology) • Maturing, ensemble-based, probabilistic systems offer the most potential benefit • Hypothetical ideal state may be • Combination of dynamics (N~2) and physics ( M~3) components and/or • Stochastic physics within the best model • Managed (N, M) component diversity based on controlled experiments and assessment of value-added • CFS & DEMETER work (EMC & CPC) • Components institutionally supported (operational or major research institution)

  17. Conceptual Prototype:Numerical Forecast Guidance (1) • Information should be optimally combined from all available sources • Domestic and international models (global, e.g. NAEFS and regional) • Same product format for all time scales (unified post-processing) • Progress in numerical forecast system development should not be constrained by post-processing • Improved products come from development of improved systems • Robust training and outreach program must • Accompany new probabilistic-based system • Support NWS Field Operations, commercial sector and international users • Support advanced dissemination of forecast information on all time and space scales

  18. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Current - 2007 Current (2007) GDAS NAM anal GFS anal GFS SREF HUR NAM GENS/NAEFS RDAS AQ RTOFS CFS

  19. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Next Generation Prototype Phase 1 - 2009 Computing factor: 3 Reforecast NAM anal GFS Anal GFS WAV HUR SREF NAM • Added • 1-Hourly RDAS • 3-Hourly GDAS • Reanalysis/ • Reforecast GENS/NAEFS AQ RTOFS CFS 1-hourly RDAS (6) 3-hourly GDAS (2)

  20. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Next Generation Prototype Phase 2 - 2011 Computing factor: 9 • Added • Hydro/NIDIS • products • Moved • GFS ½ h earlier • Expanded • Hurricane & wave • products • Incorporated • Multi-domain • rapid updating + • Fire Weather Reforecast SREF NAM Anal NAM GFS Anal GFS WAV HUR GENS/NAEFS AQ Hydro / NIDIS AQ RTOFS CFS & MFS RDAS GDAS

  21. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Next Generation Prototype Phase 3 - 2013 Computing factor: 27 SREF Reforecast GFS WAV • Added • Flash flood • products • Moved • SREF concurrent • to NAM • Expanded • Reforecast • capability GFS Anal HUR NAM NAM Anal GENS/NAEFS AQ Hydro / NIDIS/FF AQ RTOFS CFS & MFS RDAS GDAS

  22. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 - 2015 Computing factor: 81 Rap Refresh Reforecast SREF WAV • Added • Hourly GDAS • Moved • GFS concurrent • to NAM & SREF • Expanded • Hurricane • capability (hires) HUR NAM CFS MFS Global GENS/NAEFS GFS RTOFS RTOFS AQ Hydro / NIDIS/FF AQ CFS & MFS Regional RDAS Hydro GDAS

  23. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems Next Generation Prototype Final – 2017+ Computing factor: > 240 GLOBAL NEXTGEN SPACE WEATHER Rap Refresh Reforecast GENS/NAEFS HENS ECOSYSTEMS HUR SREF RTOFS CFS MFS Global >100% of 2015 computing NAM RTOFS GFS WAV Regional CFS & MFS AQ Hydro / NIDIS/FF AQ CFS & MFS Hydro RDAS GDAS

  24. EVOLUTION of the Next-Generation NCEP Production Suite (1) * Relative to NCEP’s 2007 computer ** If no new resources or new unfunded items

  25. EVOLUTION of the Next-Generation NCEP Production Suite (2) * Relative to NCEP’s 2007 computer + If positive upgrade to services ** If no new resources or new unfunded items @ additional 3x computing upgrade in 2009 required

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