Adjusted Forest Accounts for China 中国森林账户的调整*

1. Adjusted Forest Accounts for China 中国森林账户的调整* Zhuang Jian 庄 健 Senior Economist ADB Resident Mission in the PRC 亚洲开发银行驻中国代表处高级经济学家 * On behalf of Ms. Liu Xuelin, Economist, ADB

2. Topics to be covered • Background（背景） • Data limitations and the scope of accounting（数据缺口与核算范围） • Estimating forest depreciation using the net price approach（使用净价格法估算森林折旧） • Estimating forest depreciation using the user cost approach （使用用户成本法估算森林折旧） • Policy implication （政策含义）

3. Background（背景） • The territory of China: 7% of the world land surface; population: 20%. However, its forest cover: only 4% of the world; standing timber volume: <3% (Ministry of Forest, 1990). • 中国国土面积为世界的7%，人口为世界的20%，但森林面积仅为世界的4%，林木数量不到世界的3% • Timber densities stood at 84 m3/ha during 1977-1981 and 79 m3/ha during 1984-1988. These figures are biased by remaining virgin forests in remote area such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Jilin and Heilongjiang. Stocking elsewhere averages only about 30 m3/ha, far below the world standard (100 m3/ha). • 1977-1981年和1984-1988年中国林木密度分别为每公顷84和79立方米，但这些数据因包含西藏、新疆、吉林、黑龙江等偏远原始林而有所偏差，在中国其他地方的平均林木密度仅30立方米/公顷，远低于世界标准（100立方米/公顷） • China is a forest deficit nation. The main natural forests have been greatly decreased, timber stocks have dropped, the quality of forests has declined. • 中国是一个森林赤字国家。主要天然林大量减少，木材存量下降，森林质量恶化。 • More and more experts discuss the importance of integrating environmental depreciation into the national accounts. It is necessary to conduct an economic valuation on forest accounting to discover its effect on the national economy. • 越来越多的专家学者讨论将环境折旧纳入国民核算，因而有必要对森林核算进行调整评估，分析其对国民经济的影响

4. Data limitations and the scope of accounting • 数据缺口与核算范围 • Although 4 forest resources surveys in 1973-1976, 1977-1981, 1984-1988 and 1989-1993 had carried out, forest volume, consumption of timber, and forest resource reduction has to be adjusted or estimated. Calculation was confined from 1976-1992. • 尽管中国对1973-1976，1997-1981，1984-1988，1989-1993年间的森林资源进行了调查，但有关森林物量、木材消耗量、森林资源的减少等都还需要重新调整或估计，由于数据所限，本测算的时期定为1976-1992年 • Selected natural forests, mainly timber forest in China as research domain • 选择天然林，主要是成木林作为研究对象

5. Variations of timber stocks (million m3) 林木存量的变化 （百万立方米） • Opening stocks – Net reduction = Closing stocks • 期初存量 – 净减少 = 期末存量 • Net reduction = Consumption – Withered – Fire damage – Insect damage + Growth • 净减少 = 消费 – 枯萎量 – 火灾破环 – 虫灾破环 + 自然增长 • Fire damage = Fire area * average density *0.5 • 火灾破环 = 火灾面积 * 平均森林密度 * 0.5 • Insect damage = Insect area * average density *0.1 • 虫灾破环 = 虫灾面积 *平均森林密度 * 0.1

6. III. Estimating stumpage value and forest depreciation by the net prices approach 测算立木价值和运用净价格法计算森林折旧 • SV = PS – (1+r) (CM + CT+CH) = PS – AC • SV is the stumpage value, PS is the price of marketable products, r is the standard profit margin or return on capital. CM is the cost of management, CT is the cost of transport, CH is the harvesting costs, and AC is the average costs. • SV为立木价值（元/立方米）， PS为市场产品的价格，r 为标准利润率或资本回报率， CM、 CT 、CH分别为管理、运输和采伐成本，AC 为平均成本

7. Depreciation = The reduction of timber volume * the stumpage value 森林折旧 = 木材物量减少量 * 立木价值 Billion Yuan, GOP: the gross product of the forest sector

8. Estimating forest depreciation using the user cost approach （使用用户成本法估算森林折旧） Y = Output – Intermediate Cost 增加值=总产出-中间消耗 Y = Wages + Taxes less subsides +OS 增加值=工资+生产税减补贴+营业盈余 UC = OS – CR 用户成本=营业盈余-资本报酬 100 million Yuan

9. Comparison of two depreciations and adjusted NNPs 两种折旧和调整后的国民生产净值比较 FNNP, forest-adjusted NNP, billion Yuan

10. Policy implication （政策含义） China should invest more in reforestation and plantation to keep its sustainable development 中国应向植树造林投入更多的资金以促进其可持续发展 Adopt a timber import strategy 采取木材进口战略 Set up timber substitution and saving policies 制定木材替代和节约政策

11. Thanks!