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Multi-physics Multi-IC Ensemble Plan for 2012 Hurricane Season

Multi-physics Multi-IC Ensemble Plan for 2012 Hurricane Season. Zhan Zhang and Vijay Tallapragada NCEP/EMC HFIP Regional Ensemble Conference Call March 12, 2012. Base Models for Hurricane Ensemble. 2012 Operational HWRF (NCO, CCS); Triple nest domain (27/9/3 km);

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Multi-physics Multi-IC Ensemble Plan for 2012 Hurricane Season

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  1. Multi-physics Multi-IC Ensemble Plan for 2012 Hurricane Season Zhan Zhang and Vijay Tallapragada NCEP/EMC HFIP Regional Ensemble Conference Call March 12, 2012

  2. Base Models for Hurricane Ensemble • 2012 Operational HWRF (NCO, CCS); • Triple nest domain (27/9/3 km); • 43 vertical levels; • Two Moveable nests. • Basin Scale HWRF (EMC/HRD, Jet); • Single basin domain (27Km), covers both AL and EP; • 61 vertical levels; • Continuous runs at 6-hr interval starting on June 1, 2012; • Single static nest over Florida (9km).

  3. Potential Physics/IC based Ensemble Candidates • Candidates for Multi-Physics based on operational 3km HWRF configuration: • MYJ PBL Scheme (J.W. Bao, ESRL, Jet) • NOAH LSM (Bob Tuleya, EMC, Jet) • HWRF-HYCOM (Hyun-Sook Kim, EMC, CCS) • Candidates for Multi-Initial Conditions based on operational 3km HWRF configuration : • Assimilation of TDR and modified DA (Mingjing Tong, CCS); • 27/9/3 HWRF (43 levels) off of IC/BC from basin-scale HWRF (EMC/HRD, Jet) • 27/9/3 HWRF (61 levels) off of IC/BC from basin-scale HWRF (EMC/HRD, Jet)

  4. Stream 2 Ensemble Candidates for 27/9 HWRF based on GEFS/EnKF-Hybrid • Carefully choose 10 different IC based perturbations from GEFS and/or EnKF-Hybrid GFS ensemble members; • 10 member ensemble to be run on Jet or Zeus (100 cores each member and each storm, subjected to available resources) – Zhan Zhang, EMC, Jet/Zeus

  5. Ensemble Products • Track/intensity ensemble forecasts based on KDE method; • Max Wind Speed Strike Probability; • All 3D fields based on the best ensemble identified by the KDE; • Cyclone Genesis info from Basin Scale runs.

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