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Land carbon cycle managed ecosystems and climate

Land carbon cycle managed ecosystems and climate. Galina Churkina Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam, Germany. Outline. Introduction: Role of land ecosystems in the global carbon cycle Drivers behind the European carbon sink Challenges in modeling of land ecosystems.

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Land carbon cycle managed ecosystems and climate

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  1. Land carbon cycle managed ecosystemsand climate Galina Churkina Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam, Germany

  2. Outline • Introduction: Role of land ecosystems in the global carbon cycle • Drivers behind the European carbon sink • Challenges in modeling of land ecosystems

  3. Role of land ecosystems in the global carbon cycle

  4. Global anthropogenic emissions (CAntr)

  5. Global anthropogenic emissions (CAntr) Absorbed by land and ocean Remained in atmosphere (CAtm)

  6. Airborne Fraction (AF)= CAtm/CAntr~ 0.4 in 1950-2000 Trend in AFafter 2000 -? 2005: Jones and Cox, JRL

  7. Yes (Le Quere et al. Nature Geo, 2009) Earth’s carbon sinks are in decline No (Knorr, GRL, 2009, Francey et al. ICDC8, 2009) Earth’s carbon sinks are increasing proportionally to emissions Is AF increasing?

  8. CAtm = CAntr - CLand- COcean (Model) (Model) (Statistics) Crucial role in C uptake Underestimated ? 2009: Le Quere et al.,Nature Geo

  9. Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Modeled with CLIMBER-BGC Observed (atmosphere) Observed (atmosphere) Observed (atmosphere) Management -? (ice core) (ice core) (ice core) 2009: Churkina et al. GBC

  10. Drivers behind the European carbon sinkChurkina et al. 2010, Biogeosciences

  11. European ecosystems are a carbon sink of ~ 111±280 teragrams (Janssens et al. 2003) ~ 232±50 teragrams (Schulze et al. 2009)

  12. Why Europe is a carbon sink? Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen Regrowing forests/ abandment of croplands

  13. 0.1Tg/yr 0.03Tg/yr Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen on land ecosystems of Europe 2007: Dentener et al., GBC

  14. Land cover conversion: Historical trends -6900sq km /yr 5800 sq km/yr -7000 sq km/yr 10100 sq km/yr 1100 sq km/yr -3200 sq km/yr 2008: After Ramankutty et al., GBC

  15. 0.02 degC/yr 0.01 degC/yr Surface Temperature of Europe 2009: Chen et al., MPI-BGC Tech. Rep.

  16. 1.11 ppm/yr 0.29 ppm/yr Atmospheric CO2 After Etheridge et al, 1996 and Keeling & Whorf, 2005

  17. Rates of change in environmental drivers accelerated in the second half of the 20th century

  18. Land C balance and its drivers Atmospheric CO2 andN deposition Climate C balance of Europe Land Use (Conversion & Management)

  19. Land Use Change (Management) Land cover # 1* (Change) Land cover # 1 Land cover # 2 (Conversion) Although modification is not always detectable, it may have strong effect on carbon balance (forest management, fertilization, etc)

  20. Land C balance and its drivers Atmospheric CO2 andN deposition Climate ? ? C balance of Europe ? Land Use (Conversion)

  21. Land use change JULES ORCHIDEE N cycle BIOME-BGC OCN Vegetation models include:C, H2O cycles and More details in: 2010: Churkina et al., Biogeosciences

  22. Data compilation (2009: Schulze et al.) One century of the European carbon balance Atmospheric models: mean and uncertainty (2009:Schulze et al.)

  23. European mean temperature ºC

  24. OCN

  25. Atmospheric CO2

  26. OCN

  27. Land cover conversion in Europe

  28. OCN

  29. Nitrogen deposition in Europe

  30. OCN

  31. OCN

  32. Is response reasonable? NPP change in response to CO2 increase of 100 ppm *2005:Ainsworth & Long, New Phyt.

  33. Is response reasonable? Obs. NPP change in response to N increase by 1-1000 kgN/ha/yr Modeled NPP change in response to N increase by 2-28 kgN/ha/yr * 2007:Elser et al. Ecol. Letters 2008: LeBauer & Treseder, Ecology

  34. Conclusions • European ecosystems are a C sink because of interactions between • CO2 fertilization effect • Climate • N deposition • land cover conversion • C sink is likely underestimated because models do not simulate interactions of LUC and abiotic changes

  35. Challenges in land carbon sink estimates are related to …

  36. Land Conversion

  37. Land Management

  38. Extent of land use change Luyssaert et al., in preparation

  39. Modeling of croplands ton per ha Gap between modeled and statistical yields of wheat. Averages for 1997-2003 Ma et al. sumbitted

  40. Urbanization

  41. Carbon Cycle of Berlin 1 Data sources 1 Federal Working Committee on Energy-Balances 2 Berlin Senat 3 Statistics Agency Berlin-Brandenburg 4 Tree inventories of Berlin‘s districts 2 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 4 Direct C release Indirect C release C storage C uptake Gottschalk et al., in preparation

  42. Land-atmosphere feedbacks

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