THORPEX: THe Observing system and Predictability Experiment – A World Weather Research Program

1. THORPEX: THe Observing system and Predictability Experiment – A World Weather Research Program • INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM OBJECTIVES • SCIENCE GOAL: • Promote research leading to new techniques in: • Observations (OBS), • Data assimilation (DA), • Forecasting (FCST), and • Socioeconomic Applications (SA) • SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS • SERVICE GOAL: • Accelerate improvements in utility of forecasts for high impact weather • THORPEX ANSWER: • Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting through • Enhanced collaboration • on international level • between research & operations

2. STATUS OF PLANNING International Science Plan: Completed & accepted (Dec. 2005), 51 pages International Implementation Plan (TIP): Completed & accepted (Febr. 2005), 93 pages US THORPEX Plan First Draft ready in Aug. 2004 Under revision NOAA THORPEX Science & Implementation Plan Completed in June 2003, 52 pages

3. NOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTS3-7 day precipitation forecasts8-14 day probabilistic daily weather forecastsNOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS NEW NWP Sub-systems developed in coordination End-to-end forecast process Strong feedback among components Two-way interaction Error/uncertainty accounted for TRADITIONAL NWP Each discipline developed on its own Disjoint steps in forecast process Little or no feedback One-way flow of information Uncertainty in process ignored SOCIOEC. SOCIOEC. SYSTEM SYSTEM INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

4. DIRECT LINK BETWEEN NOAA THORPEX SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (NTSIP-2002) ANDTHORPEX INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE PLAN & THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (TIP) TIP TIP – “OBSERVING SYSTEM” TIP – “DATA ASSIMILATION…” NTSIP SOCIOECON. SYSTEM CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES GLOBAL INTERACTIVE FORECAST SYSTEM (GIFS) TIP – “SOCIAL & ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS” TIP – “PREDICTABILITY & DYNAMICAL PROCESSES”

5. STATUS - NOAA • Grant program • 12 studies funded at slightly reduced level • 2 on Observing System • 5 on Data Assimilation • 3 on Predictability/Forecasting • 1 on Socio-Economic Applications • 1 on Cross-Cutting • IPY Planning • Pre-Proposal (Short-Term Arctic Predictability, STAP) submitted, Jan. 2005 • Predictability of weather, sea ice, ocean wave, and land surface in the Arctic on 3-90 days • One of 10 NOAA submissions • Coordinated with a group of 10 PIs (JCSDA, SIMMS, OAR, OGP, NIC, NWS, SIP) • Full plan due June 2005 • Need to coordinate with US/NA/International THORPEX plans/efforts • North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

6. NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM • Joint research/development with Met. Services of Canada & Mexico • Combine Canadian / US ensemble systems • Seamless forecasts over borders and lead times • Share development and computer resources • Better represent forecast system related uncertainty • Timeline • May 2003 Kick-off Workshop • Nov 2003 Research, Development & Implementation Plan complete • Sept 2004 Initial Operational Capability • Nov 2004 Inauguration Ceremony & 2nd Workshop • High level management, press coverage • Link with GEOSS • Example for GEOSS empowered applications • Phased operational implementation • March 2006, 2007, 2008 • Prototype for THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)

7. ISSUES • Long term budget planning • Need to bring budget and RDI (research, development & implementation) planning in sync • Mismatch between science plan/high level promises and available resources • Current 1.3M (2.3M for 06?) budget does not allow full NOAA participation • Cannot take advantage of IPY-related opportunities • Cannot fulfill GEOSS expectations (THORPEX IS GEOSS for global weather forecasting) • Cannot take full advantage of other international collaborative efforts • Cannot achieve NOAA’s goal of promoting global environmental safety • Immediate concerns • Need funding for transition of grant-based research into operations • Entering 2nd year of grant research • Must find a solution, otherwise good efforts may be wasted • Operational Test Center must be established (jointly with JCSDA) • Need funding for directed research/development (by NOAA Labs & others) • To fill gaps in program (new fcst system will be as good as its weakest point allows) • Foster interagency collaboration • IPY offers good opportunity (and challenge)

8. BACKGROUND

9. NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Committee Louis Uccellini (Chair) NWS Michael Uhart OWAQ Marie Colton ORA/NESDIS Gregg Mandt NWS Jim Kimpel (OAR) NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee Zoltan Toth Chair, Program Manager NOAA/NWS Observations: Data Assimilation Jaime Daniels NOAA/NESDIS Craig Bishop NRL David Emmitt SWA L.-P. Riishojgaard JCSDA Chris Velden CIMSS Dezso Devenyi NOAA/FSL Forecasting/Predictability: Socioeconomic Applications: Jim Hansen MIT Rebecca Morss NCAR Jeff Whitaker/T. Hamill NOAA/CDC James Wilczak NOAA/ERL George Kiladis NOAA/AL

10. THORPEX: A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN Based largely on work of NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting (October 21-22 2002): • NOAA NWS • Zoltan Toth • Naomi Surgi • NOAA OAR • Melvyn Shapiro • Jeff Whitaker • Outside NOAA • Craig Bishop NRL • David Carlson NCAR • Ron Gelaro NASA • Rebecca Morss NCAR • John Murray NASA • Chris Snyder NCAR With further input from NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team Acknowledgements: D. Rogers, L. Uccellini, S. Lord, J. Gaynor, W. Seguin

11. THORPEX: A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN INTRODUCTION New forecast paradigm SCIENCE PLAN Major Themes Open Science Questions Research and Development Tasks IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Work Plan Deliverables Performance measures Education/Outreach Path to Operations APPENDIX Link with NOAA Strategic Goals NWS STIP Process

12. NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW • ANSWER SCIENCE QUESTIONS Advance basic knowledge, directed explicitly toward NWP applications Each task must be conceived as part of overall program • DEVELOP NEW METHODS Sub-system development Academic research Cross-cutting activities Academic + operational centers Infrastructure / Core tasks Facilitate other activities - Strong agency involvement Operational Test Facility Real time test and demonstration • RECOMMEND/PREPARE OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION Integral part of program Strong participation by operational centers

13. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES Observing system (OBS) Data assimilation (DA) Forecast procedures (FCST) Socio-economic Applications (SA) Cross-cutting activities Core tasks

14. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 1 OBSERVING SYSTEM New in-situ and remote instruments/platforms to complement existing network Adaptive observing instruments/platforms For large data sets Super-obing etc prior to OR within data assimil. (Joint work with data assimilation) Obs. error estimation (correlated/uncorrelated)

15. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 2 Observing system DATA ASSIMILATION Improve techniques Forward models, transfer codes Thinning of data Treatment of data with correlated errors Advanced methods to use case dependent covariance 4DVAR research, e.g., continual update of error covariance Ensemble based techniques Treatment of model errors Adaptive observing techniques Quick use of targeted data (“pre-emptive” forecasting) Methods in the presence of Strong non-linearities Model error Effectiveness of targeted data in analyses/forecasts Effect on climatological applications of data

16. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 3 Observing system Data assimilation FORECAST PROCEDURES Initial ensemble perturbations (Joint with data assimilation) Role of non-modal behavior Separate model related error from initial value errors Systematic vs. random errors Atmospheric features most affected Critical model features responsible for different errors Improve model formulation to reduce errors (Coupling techniques) Techniques to account for remaining uncertainty in ensembles Adaptive modeling and ensemble techniques

17. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 4 Observing system Data assimilation Forecast procedures SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS Probabilistic forecasting Statistical post-processing New procedures for intermediate and end users Add-on costs of new THORPEX NWP process Cost of data from multi-use satellite platforms (Joint with Observtns.) Incremental societal/economic benefits of new NWP process New NWP verification measure Societal aspects of new adaptive NWP procedures Equitable use of NWP resources

18. CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES Integrating NWP procedures from four sub-systems Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) Data needs of NWP What variables/resolution/accuracy required Instrument/platform neutral assessment What instruments/platforms can provide data needs Existing and new in-situ & remote platforms Adaptive component to complement fixed network Most cost effective solution Relative value of improvements in four sub-systems Improvements in which sub-system offer best return? Reallocation of resources Test of proposed operational configurations Major field program if needed Cost/benefit analysis - Select most cost effective version

19. CORE TASKS Needed for efficient research & planned operations Strong agency involvement THORPEX data base (observations, forecasts) Information Technology challenge High data volume Transmission Storage of data Foster collaboration in critical areas Workshops (Societal and economic impacts) Joint proposals – Interdisciplinary collaboration Critical in past programs like FASTEX Test-bed – Pathway from research to operations Formal procedure for researchers to follow Melting pot for new ideas Venue for cross-cutting activities

20. NOAA THORPEX OBJECTIVES • 1) Develop new forecast procedures leading to • Improved operational NWP forecasts; and • Develop/adapt cost/benefit tools to measure resulting societal impact • ULTIMATE MEASURE OF SUCCESS • The overall success of the NOAA THORPEX program will be measured in a unique and comprehensive way. The program will be considered successful if the newly developed cost/benefit analysis tools (point 3 above) indicate that the forecast improvements (point 2) due to the new THORPEX procedures (point 1) can be achieved operationally in a cost-effective manner. That is, the incremental economic and societal benefits associated with the use of the new THORPEX forecast procedures outweigh their implementation and maintenance costs.

21. LINK WITH NOAA MISSION GOAL NOAA’S 3rd MISSION GOAL – sounds like excerpt fromTHORPEX doc.: NOAA will “provide integrated observations, predictions, and advice for decision makers to manage… environmental resources”. Mission strategies and measures of success directly correspond with THORPEX Sub-program areas: NOAA MISSION STRATEGY THORPEX FORECAST COMPONENTS Monitor and Observe Observations Understand and Describe Data Assimilation Assess and Predict Forecasting Engage, Advise, and Inform Socio-economic Applications Different Line Offices responsible for various forecast components – NEED FOR NEW MATRIX MANAGEMENT CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATION

22. LINK WITH NWS STIP PROCESS National Weather Service (NWS) – NOAA’s operational weather forecast provider NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) – Operational requirements should motivate all service oriented research Research must have thread to operations & Credible path to operational implementation SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS THORPEX seeks advanced knowledge on two fronts: Nature (atmospheric and related processes) Forecast procedures (OBS, DA, FCST & SA techniques) Integrating knowledge from two areas leads to new forecast paradigm of INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, AND USER CONTROLLABLE FCST PROCESS

23. NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX • 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists • Apr 2000 First International Meeting • Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed • Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting • Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting • Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan • Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Committee formed • Feb 2003 Pacific TOST Experiment (PTOST) • Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity • Sep 2003 25 Full Proposals received • Oct-Dec 03 Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATREC) • Feb 04 Scientific review and evaluation of AO proposals completed • Apr-Jun 04 Grants for 12 out of 25 proposals distributed • Sept 2004 Initial Operating Capability for NAEFS • Jan 2005 NOAA IPY Pre-proposal (Short-Term Arctic Predictability - STAP)

24. 4.2 THORPEX ORGANIZATION PROPOSED INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE • Solid plan • Reflects expected organization of work ICSC In charge Advisory bodies: Science, Operations, Users Executive Board (Headed by IPO Director) Regions: Asia, Europe, NA, etc Working Groups: Science, Demos, GIFS

25. THORPEX INTL ORGANIZATIONAL FLOWCHART Support Core Research Deliverable Observing System Data Assim. & Obs. Strateg. Global Interactive Forecast System Data Management and Policy Predict- ability TIGGE Data Base Socio-Econ. Applications Facilitates Res. & Demo

26. THORPEX ORGANIZATION NATIONAL – INTERNATIONAL LINKS INTERNATIONAL LEVEL REGIONAL LEVEL US NATIONAL LEVEL International Core Steering Committee ICSC, Chair: M. Beland US Interagency Coordination US Rep.: R. Rosen Alt.: L. Uccellini International Leadership National Leadership THORPEX Executive Board (TEB) / IPO ? NOAA NTEC L. Uccellini NSF J. Moyers NASA R. Birk J. Kay ONR S. Cheng International Exec. Leaders Agency Execs Regional Committees Europe, Asia, etc NA Committee US Rep: D. Parsons NOAA Sci/Impl Z. Toth Agency Sci/Imp NSF Program Man. L. Gates Science, Demo, GIFS Working Groups ???? Intl. Science & Implementation NASA Sci/Impl T. Miller ONR Sci/Impl. C. Reynolds

27. NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART NTEC MEMBERS J. Hayes, D-OST/NWS J. Kimpel, OAR M. Colton, D-ORA/NESDIS NOAA Senior Management CHAIR L. Uccellini, D-NCEP/NWS Interagency Coordination NOAA Line Offices STAFF: Z. Toth, NTSIC Chair M. Ralph & F. Toepfer, PPBES NTSIC MEMBERS Obs. Systems: J. Daniels (ORA), D. Emmitt (SWA), C. Velden (U. Wisc/SIMMS) Data Assim: C. Bishop (NRL), L.-P. Riishojgaard (NASA/JCSDA) Forecasting: J. Hansen (MIT), G. Kiladis (AL), D. Devenyi (FSL), J. Whitaker/T. Hamill (CDC) SA Applications: R. Morss (NCAR), J. Wilczak (ETL) NOAA Res. Labs: AL, CDC, ETL, FSL, ORA Regional Sci. Com. Science/Demo Working Groups CHAIR Z. Toth,EMC/NCEP NOAA Joint Inst.: JCSDA, CIMMS, SIP NWS-NCEP Operational Implementations F. Toepfer Consistent with D. Rogers Memo of 7/9/2003, establishing NTEC & NTSIC International Forecasting Activities NOAA THORPEX Administrative Assistant

28. NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART – ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES • 1) Provide overall guidance • 2) Secure necessary funding • 3) Make all funding decisions • 1) Develop and update NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan • 2) Evaluate proposals submitted to NOAA THORPEX Research Grant Program (AO) NOAA THORPEX EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE (NTEC) • Leads committee, makes final decisions if it lacks consensus • Interfaces with USWRP/ International Executive Commit. • Interfaces with Chair of NTSIC • 1) Leads and coordinates NOAA THORPEX Program as directed by NTEC • 2) Prepares draft budget • Recommends funding for: • Research grants • Operational implementation • Infrastructure • International commitments, etc CHAIR NOAA THORPEX SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE (NTSIC) CHAIR