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CARIBBEAN REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

This document discusses the importance of early warning systems in adapting to climate change in the Caribbean region and provides information on adaptation processes, initiatives in progress, and future considerations.

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CARIBBEAN REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

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  1. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. CARIBBEAN REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM Climate Early Warning: A means for Adapting to Climate Change? Capital Plaza Hotel, Port of Spain,Trinidad&Tobago 27-28 May, 2013

  2. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. ADAPTATION • Adaptation to climate change can be defined as adjustments of a system to reduce vulnerability and to increase its resilience to climate change. • Adaptation can either occur • in anticipation of change (anticipatory adaptation), • or be a response to those changes (reactive adaptation

  3. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. ADAPTATION PROCESS • (a) downscaling • (b) regional climate change projections • (c) regional climate change scenarios • (d) (c) + impact models (crop, hydrology models)

  4. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. ADAPTATION PROCESS • (e) impacts of extreme events under different climate scenarios • (f) Climate impact scenarios • (g) Adaptation options

  5. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. INITIATIVES IN PROGRESS • Suite of activities to determine: • extent of risk arising from climate change to which region will be exposed in future. • vulnerability of the region’s natural and socioeconomic systems to climate change. • impacts of CC on the natural and socioeconomic systems of the region. • regional response to mitigate those impacts and costs for implementing. • implementation of mitigative actions (ADAPTATION) • building regional capacity to carry out the above actions

  6. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. APPROACH TO ADAPTATION • Regional position on addressing Adaptation is that the • Caribbean is already vulnerable to risks arising from present day climate variability. • CC will further exacerbate this situation. • Need to adapt and bolster resilience to risks from climate variability as the first step in our adaptation to longer term risks arising from climate change. • As the certainty of projections of future CC & associated risks increase further adaptation will be recommended.

  7. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. EARLY WARNING Early Warning is the provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response. (UNISDR) Early Warning can be defined as the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. The

  8. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. EARLY WARNING • A complete and effective early warning system comprises four elements The “four elements of effective early warning systems”, the Early Warning Chain, include the development and operation of early warning systems in regard to: (a) knowledge of risks; (b) monitoring and warning services; (c) warning dissemination and communication; and (d) emergency response

  9. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. CC & EWS • Climate Change will change the frequency, spatial and temporal distribution and intensity of natural hazards. Hence it is reasonable to • (1) assess climate change induced trends of natural hazards and • (2) detect and deduce resulting implications for and potentials of Early Warning Systems under changing climate conditions

  10. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. CC& EWS • CC & Risk Knowledge: • Monitoring & warning services affected by CC – spatial & temporal changes in risk patterns resulting from changed vulnerability & new dimensions of NHzs (intensity, frequency, distribution) may introduce need for adapting the distribution of EWS. • Change in global drivers like ENSO • Monitoring systems for slow onset events • Changed vulnerability due to rural exodus & urbanization • Monitor CC induced evolution of risks to detect affected areas & to position EWS at the right place & the right time

  11. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. Future Considerations • Critical value of EW grown with strengthening of links between DRR & CC especially in context of expanding urban development under stress from environmental changes • Need in future to: • address socioeconomic aspects of EW and • Strengthen climate monitoring capacities (regions most under threat lack the capacity)

  12. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. Climate Change Concerns in Water Sector • Need to Adapt • Increasing variability in the hydrological cycle evident over last 30 years in many parts of world • Chances are that this will intensify with global warming • Extreme weather events becoming more common and severe and bring mounting human suffering and escalating economic losses

  13. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. Sector Adaptation Technological and Structural • Access to and use of forecasting and early warning systems based on short- to medium-term weather forecasts. • Increased storage (cope with rainfall and runoff) • Reservoirs – design & capacity • Ground water storage (less evaporation) from storm water runoff, irrigative return flows, reused waste water • Rainwater harvesting

  14. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. Sector Adaptation • Needs in the region • (a) Data • Restoring and extending hydrological data base • Resource inventories • Long-term climate data • (b) Downscaled climate models • Resolution scale of global models too small and timescale too long to encompass local climate variability • Coupling of climate &hydrological models • (c) Capacity to forecast climate at basin, regional or national level over seasons or years – short-term forecasting

  15. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. CC & EWS • NAPA’s in 24 countries which submitted proposals on DM & EWS half of the proposals were on EWS and 5 on strengthening Meteorological services. • Of a total budget of $65M US, $28.677M US requested for EWS & 10.5M US for Meteorological services. • Conclusion : Developing countries see need to strengthen their EW & forecasting capacities as the most pressing one in order to adapt to CC

  16. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT “Emerging CHALLENGES for EARLY WARNING Systems in context of Climate Change and Urbanization” A Joint Report prepared DKKV (German Committee for Disaster Reduction) & Platform for Promotion of Early Warning(UNISDR) with inputs from Partner organisations and coordinated by Humanitarian & Development Network.

  17. U Trotz Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. For further information please contact us at: THE CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE 2nd Floor, Lawrence Nicholas Bldg. P.O. Box 563 Bliss Parade, Belmopan City, Belize Tel: +501-822-1094/1104 Fax: +501-822-1365 Website: www.caribbeanclimate.bz THANK YOU

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