Institutional Capacity Building Through Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF)

1. Institutional Capacity Building Through Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) Kabineh Konneh Program Manager NOAA Climate Regional Decision Support Research Program, (NCRDS) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Program (NOAA-OGP) Tel: +1 (301)-427-2374 E-mail: kabineh.konneh@noaa.gov http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/csi/esd/africa/index.htm International Workshop on Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges; WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 11-13 May, 2005.

2. Structure of the Talk • Climate and societal vulnerability • Disproportional vulnerability of developing regions • RCOF and its evolution • Location of RCOFs from 1996 to date • Institutional Capacity Building • RCOFs and institutional synergies • Research capacity building • Use of RCOF products • Accomplishments of the (RCOFS) • Challenges of the RCOF process • Conclusions and recommendations

3. Climate, Economic Sectors, Society and Ecosystems • Climate affects everything we do, and everybody is vulnerable to climate risks-Populations, Economies, AND Ecosystems Climate, People, Economic Sectors and Ecosystems

4. Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) Process • Provides information to help reduce climate risks • Strengthens the capacity ofNational Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), and users • Provides a platform for effective interaction between forecasting and user communities

5. Climate Outlook Forums 1997-DateServing society’s needs for climate information

6. Institutional Capacity Building Through RCOFs • Capacity building is a function of: • affording the institutions and communities access to the latest climate information • translating scientific insights into user-friendly format • hands-on use of the information (probabilistic forecast) and • developing decisions support tools tailored for specific decision context.

7. NMHSs • Forecasting capability of the NMHs staff has gone beyond simple weather forecasting (3-5) days, to 3-6 months using the knowledge of ENSO • Pre-COF training of national forecasters has improved their capacity for long-range forecasting • NMHSs now do dynamical modeling which better captures the chaotic nature of the climate system, especially in the GHA

8. Capacity Building of User Communities • Reducing climate related vulnerability and food security emergencies • Agricultural decision makers (downscaling of climate information for agricultural applications) : Agricultural extension institutions • Factoring climate information into water resources management (prototype reservoir management prediction models: Water resource managers in hydropower institutions • Factoring climate information into public health climate related risk management (prototype malaria prediction models): Public health institutions • Greater awareness of the value of climate information in climate risk management • Food security monitoring • Monitoring current growing season for rainfall and vegetation indices on a regular basis to anticipate humanitarian response (WFP, 2000/2001 COF forecast): Food security institutions (NGOs) and public sector institutions

9. Intermediary Capacity Building • RCOFs have created effective collaboration and understanding between the forecasters and journalists • Through associated sector training (a major component of RCOFs), the media now has better understanding of the basic language and subject of seasonal forecasting • RCOFs have facilitated establishment of regional networks of climate journalists in the GHA and SADC Regions • These networks now do specialized reporting on climate issues

10. Improving Regional and National Climate Research Capacity: Climate Applications Research • Developing new methodologies and enhancing existing ones for applying climate information • Assessing the effectiveness of communicating the information • Identifying and addressing challenges of using the information • Pilot research through universities, high schools and research institutions and NMHSs

11. Accomplishments of COFs • RCOFs have established regional journalists networks and collaborations • Have contributed to bridging the gap between science and policy • NMHSs now integrating work of major climate modeling centers with local expertise to provide better skilled information • Have provided consensus, legitimate and credible information as compared to multiple and conflicting information in the pre-COF era • Have created opportunities for decision makers to plan ahead of anticipated hydro-meteorological disasters and, • Have improved farm management strategies to reduce loss of crop yields ,based on the forecast information

12. Challenges to the capacity building through RCOFs • Institutional • Sustainability of the process • Integrating RCOF products into planning activities • Lack of forecast dependent logistical support (institutional support, such as subsidies, credits and crop insurances) • Technical • COF products are still too generic (not addressing specific needs requirements) • language of the current forecast is too technical • Usability still low • Lack of effective and appropriate communication protocol • Lack of a more holistic risk assessment of climate impacts ( climate information should not be a stand-alone factor)

13. Partners in the Capacity Building Effort • NOAA-OGP (Donor) • USAID-OFDA (Donor) • WMO (Technical) • The World Bank (Donor) • IRI (Technical) • UK Met. Office (Technical) • Meteo France (Technical) • NCEP/CPC (Technical) • DMCs, ACMAD and NMHS (Technical)

14. Conclusions and Recommendations • RCOFs have enhanced regional and national research capacity. • They have become a well-recognized international framework for providing and disseminating credible and legitimate climate information • RCOFs have improved the ability of NMHSs for seasonal forecasting • RCOFs have contributed to emergence of climate journalists • Recommendations • Donors encourage development of regional frameworks to support future RCOFs • Forecast providers should improve the skill and accuracy of the lead-time of the forecast • Forecasters to provide sector specific information and • Research in seasonal forecasting to engage in a broader spectrum risk assessment and increase effort to understand the decision context of users • Forecast providers and social scientists to develop appropriate information and communication protocols