The Vital Statistics System in China

1. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems 27 – 30 June 2011 New York The Vital Statistics Systemin China Wu Jie Department of Population and EmploymentNational Bureau of Statistics of China

2. Total Population of 2010 Census

3. National Population

4. Outline • The Vital Statistics System in China • 2010 Population census in China • Annual Population Change Sample Survey • Administrative records • Comparing and evaluating the quality of vital statistics

5. 1. The Vital Statistics System in China

6. Censuses

7. Sample survey • The 1% population sample survey, conducted during the inter-censual years ending in 5 • The annual 1‰ sample survey on population changes • Quarterly labor force survey • The monthly labor force survey, usually running in big cities

8. Administrative records • Supplement sources to those collected through regular population census and sample surveys

9. 2010 Population Census in China • Reference time • Respondent • Process of 2010 Census • Challenges • New Characteristics • Census Items • Initial findings

10. 2010 Population Census in China • Reference time: 1 November 2010 • Respondent: • de Facto living persons; • household registration persons (de jure) foroutgoing migrants

11. Process of 2010 Census • Preparation (Oct.2007- Oct.2010) • Field enumeration (Nov.1-10,2010) • Field check (Nov.11-20,2010 ) • Post enumeration survey (Dec. 2010) • Advance tabulation (Dec. 2010-Apr. 2011) • Data processing (Dec. 2010- Dec.2011) • Data dissemination (Apr.2011 ----–2013) and utilization

12. Challenges for Census-taking in China • Difficulty in Counting Migrant Population • Greater Residence-registration Inconsistency • Lower Cooperation from Respondents • Under-reporting of Births • Difficulty in Recruiting Enumerators • Establishing strict quality control and acceptance systems

13. New Characteristics for 2010 Population Census • Stronger Legal Basis • Changes in enumeration method • Collection information on international migrants • Remote sensing images in aid of census divisions and mapping • Topics covered in the Census • Wider use of administrative records • Improving data processing efficiency

14. Stronger Legal Basis Regulations on Population census • specifies objectives, principles and methods • more emphasis on rights of respondents • stronger protection of privacy

15. Changes in enumeration method • de Facto approach (as compared with de jure approach used in 2000 census) • information also collected at the place of household registration (de jure) for outgoing migrants • operationally easier for enumerators • more information on migration

16. Collection information on international migrants • cover foreigners who have resided in China for some time • a shorter questionnaire (8 questions) was used and in-person interview was conducted

17. Remote sensing images in aid of census divisions and mapping • divide census enumeration areas nationwide: nearly 7 million areas • remote sensing images were used in preparing maps of census areas and blocks: full coverage census areas without duplication or omission. • prepare basic material for the spatial analysis of population by combining census data and spatial positions.

18. Topics covered in the Census • combination of long form (10%) and short form (90%) • short form：6 household items, 12 individual items • long form: 19 household items, 28 individual items

19. Wider use of administrative records • resident population and migrants information from the household registration administered by the Ministry of Public Security • birth information collected by family planning departments, the health department as well as the community and village committees

20. Improving data processing fficiency • a decentralized strategy • OCR data entry, conducted at municipal-level • a Chinese-character handwriting recognition technology: nationality and residence address directly identified

21. Establishing strict quality control and acceptance systems • quality control teams at all levels • a routine check-up and a random spot check • Post enumeration survey: after field enumeration, a total of 402 enumeration blocks were randomly selected to conduct post-enumeration survey to compare with the records of census enumeration, which resulted in a population undercount rate of 0.12 percent.

22. Duplicated rate & Uncoverage rate • 1982 Duplicated rate 0.15‰ • 1990 Uncoverage rate 0.6‰ • 2000 Uncoverage rate 1.81% • 2010 Uncoverage rate 1.2‰

23. Items round 2010 census • Household & Individual: sex, age, ethnicity, education level, industry, occupation, social security, marriage and fertility, mortality, migration, housing, unemployment

24. Short Form: Household Items (6) H1: household no. H2: type of household (family, collective) H3: number of persons H4: births and deaths during last 12 months H5: floor space of housing H6: number of rooms

25. Short Form: Individual Items (12) R1: name R2: relation with head of household R3: gender R4: date of birth R5: nationality (ethnic group) R6: place of residence at reference time R7: place of household registration R8: duration since leaving place of household registration R9: reason for leaving place of household registration R10: nature of household registration (agri. vs non-agri) R11: ability to read R12: education attainment

26. Long Form: Household Items (17) H1-H4: same as in short form H5: nature of housing H6: floor space of housing H7: number of rooms H8: type of building (single or multi-floor) H9: construction of building H10: time when building was constructed H11: with/without access to pipe water H12: fuel for cooking H13: with/without kitchen H14: with/without toilet H15: with/without hot water bathing facility H16: source of housing H17: monthly rent (in case of renting)

27. Long Form: Individual Items (28) R1-R12: for all persons R1-R9: same as in short form R10: nature of residence at household registration (urban/rural) R11: nature of household registration (agri. vs non-agri) R12: place of birth R13: (persons aged 5 and over) R13: address of residence 5 years ago R14-16: (persons aged 6 and over) R14: ability to read R15: education attainment R16: status of completion of education

28. Long Form: Individual Items (28) R17-25: (persons aged 15 and over) R17: status of employment R18: industry R19: occupation R20: reason for not working R21: whether having looked for work during last 3 months R22: able/unable to work in 2 weeks if given a job R23: sources of living R24: marital status R25: date of first marriage

29. Long Form: Individual Items (28) R26: (woman aged 15-64) R26: number of births (male, female) and number of children surviving (male, female) R27: (woman aged 15-50) R27: fertility status during last 12 months (with/without births, month when giving first or second and more birth, gender of baby) R28: (persons aged 60 and over) R28: health condition

30. Initial vital statistics findings

31. Total Population and Annual Growth Rate from Population Censuses

32. Sex Composition from Population Censuses

33. Age Composition from Population Censuses

34. Age Pyramid from Population Censuses

35. Proportion of Population Aged 60+ and 65+ from Population Censuses

36. Composition of Nationalities from Population Censuses

37. Population with College Education Per 100,000 Persons from Population Censuses

38. Population Migration

39. Geographic Distribution of Population 39

40. Residents from Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Foreigners 40

41. Annual Population Change Sample Survey (APS) • Established officially from 1983 • Conducted by NBS in China once a year • Provide reliable population data at the national and provincial level every year such as: • annual total population • population structural • fertility and mortality • …

42. Items on APS • Covers key items that are collected in censuses • sex, age, ethnicity, the level of education, marital status, fertility, mortality, migration and etc. • A survey methodology book is published every year for training and supervision

43. Sample Survey • Multi-stage, with stratified clusters proportional to size • Taking the whole country as the population and provincial level as sub-population • The sample size is 1.2 million persons

44. Sampling design method Population annual and labor force quarterly survey samples are rotated by certain proportion multi-stage stratified clusters proportional sampling the whole country as population, provincial level as sub-population Final sample unit is enumeration area, enumeration areas divided by 30 households The fourth quarter labor force survey samples are the same as population survey

45. The sample size（10,000 persons）

46. Calculating main data from sample Survey • Estimating main data on population and sub population: Total population, CBR, CDR, … • Analyzing sampling variance • Evaluating data quality • Publications

47. Administrative records

48. Ministries’ data dissemination

49. 5. Comparing and evaluating the quality of vital statistics • Three main resources obtaining the major population data: • survey conducted by National Statistical Bureau • census conducted by National Statistical Bureau • administrative records mainly refers to household registration collected by the Ministry of Public Security

50. Comparing data sources