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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

Stay informed about the recent evolution of the Asian-Australian Monsoon system, current conditions, and predictions. Get the latest rainfall patterns and forecasts for the monsoon region.

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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

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  1. The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 11, 2016 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

  2. Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology

  3. Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing a mixed pattern over the monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of central western and central eastern India, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, and parts of Papua New Guinea.

  4. Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient over Gujarat and central eastern India. Elsewhere, rainfall was at generally at near normal or above normal levels.

  5. Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, monsoon rainfall is above normal over central India, where it has been deficient. Weekly rainfall was also high along the western Ghats, and along southwestern Burma. Elsewhere, rainfall was below normal especially across the Indonesia. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, the monsoon rainfall has been slightly above normal by 2 % across the country

  6. Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

  7. Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

  8. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

  9. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

  10. Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing a mixed pattern over the monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of central western and central eastern India, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, and parts of Papua New Guinea. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient over Gujarat and central eastern India. Elsewhere, rainfall was generally at near normal or above normal levels. In this past week, monsoon rainfall is above normal over central India, where it was deficient before. Weekly rainfall was also high along the western Ghats, and along southwestern Burma. Elsewhere, rainfall was below normal especially across the Indonesia. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, the monsoon rainfall has been slightly above normal by 2 % across the country. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting more rainfall over northern India and eastern China in the first week, continued more heavy rainfall over eastern China and relatively less rainfall over much of India in the second week.

  11. Demise of the Asian Monsoon

  12. Onset of the Australian Monsoon

  13. Climatology

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