Establishing a Civil Society Mirror

1. Establishing a Civil Society Mirror Tracking, Analyzing, and Communicating Indicators of Proliferation Propensity Jack Boureston FirstWatch International (FWI)

2. My task: To track proliferationtrends in the region To proliferate or not? That is the question, but how can we tell?

3. Proliferation propensity: a working definition The probability that a country or non-state actor will decide to acquire and deploy nuclear weapons.

4. Consider various determining factors • Sagan • Security model to counter threats • Domestic politics model to advance domestic interests • Normative model, following norms to provide as symbol of identity • Berriman, Leslie, and Carlson • Evidence of procurement of materials and items • Capability to produce • Motivation and intent • Jo and Gartzke • Opportunities • Willingness • Singh and Way • Technological • External • Internal

5. Internal determinants • Ideological grounding - Preservation of state or regime sometimes manifested through nationalism & extremism - Power projection aspirations • Attitudes - View of nuclear weapons (among those of influence) - Nuclear taboo - Nuclear culture - Perceived sphere of influence on policy process

6. External determinants • Security environment • Threats: military, culture, religion, economy • Regional/balance of power and alliances • Globalization - economic interdependence • Economically integrated • Trade balance/imbalance • Dependence on foreign investment • Foreign policy - sanctions, treaties • Cooperation with International organizations • Nonproliferation regime & Int’l norms • Compliance with international regimes • Participation in international norms & regimes

7. Technological determinants • Acquisition of sensitive materials and equipment • Evidence of procurement (what & from whom?) • Research in sensitive technologies • Enrichment and reprocessing

8. Some important points about plotting propensity • Best explained as qualitative assessments not quantifiable assessments • Hard to quantify • Subjective • Best evaluated by experts • Need to start at a baseline, then plot propensity over time

9. Plotting propensity

10. Sample - Japan 2006

11. Japan’s propensity to proliferate EXAMPLE ONLY This would be accompanied with an explanation of the data points, score and probable trends

12. Combined indices-trend analysis EXAMPLE ONLY

13. Information monitoring • Manual process of following activities, attending meetings, talking to people • Following organizations that would be the originators of information • Automating the process using the Internet and software tool

14. Evidence of indicators: where to look?

15. Providing info to IAEA • Organize by each determinates • Use a parallel IAEA State evaluation report (SER) structure • Political/legal • Elements of nuclear fuel cycle • Research • Non-nuclear (dual-use equipment, missiles and other) • Trafficking • Import/export • Weaponization • State the significance of each section, with headlines or citations?

16. IAEA’s SER • Part A: Presentation of structure • History of nuclear program • Current nuclear program • Nonproliferation commitments • Part B: Consistency of information • General consistency of current and planned program • Consistency of specific nuclear activities (follows the “physical model” nuclear fuel cycle) • Consistency of nuclear material flows • Consistency of equipment imports/exports • Part C: Conclusions • Unresolved inconsistencies • Recommendations

17. Communicating propensitythree methods 1. Ongoing reporting 2. Periodic brief for policy makers 3. Annual event and statement to be posted on a website and distributed as a policy/press release

18. 1. Ongoing reporting • Provide indicators of propensity using information found in the public domain • Categorize by country then by indicator • Possible analysis/concluding remarks? SAMPLE

19. 2. Periodic brief for policy makers • Develop issues briefs • Report on indicators with assessments of their impact on the proliferation propensity of a state. • Deliver via list-serve • Policy makers • Public action groups (public forums etc.) SAMPLE

20. 3. Annual statement/annual event • Statement • Communicating individual state and overall propensity in region • Hold a seminar • Explain project (English and other languages) • Definitions • Indicators (explaining why they are determinants) • Display graphs • Statement/declaration to policy makers • Press release to the public • Post on website

21. References 1) Scott D. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search a Bomb,” International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3, Winter 1996-1997, pp. 54-86. 2) Sonali Singh and Christopher R. Way, “Paths to Non-Proliferation: The Need For A Quantitative Test of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Theory,” Pre-Print Draft, later published under “The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation: A Quantitative Test,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2004. 3) Dong-Joon Jo and Erik Gartzke, “Determinants of Nuclear Proliferation” Journal of Conflict Resolution, February, 2007. 4) Annette Berriman, Russel Leslie, and John Carlson," Assessing Motivation As a Means of Determining The Risk of Proliferation,” Presented at INMM Conference, July 2004.