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Wind Working Group

Wind Working Group. June 13. Wind Working Group. Seasonality and direction of wind issues Study of wind direction at Elkhorn indicated that splitting wind into two basic directions improved the forecast

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Wind Working Group

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  1. Wind Working Group June 13

  2. Wind Working Group • Seasonality and direction of wind issues • Study of wind direction at Elkhorn indicated that splitting wind into two basic directions improved the forecast • Light load versus heavy load MAE since April are 57/54 MW…respectively. We have wayyyy to much error at night. • We are patching holes in the dike and not fixing the problem • A more comprehensive approach is needed

  3. Wind Working Group • Seasonality… Average Power decreases from Spring to Summer Spring phenomena?

  4. Wind Working Group • Wind Direction…

  5. Wind Working Group • Direction…

  6. Wind Working Group • Direction…

  7. Wind Working Group Average last 4 model runs • Average last four runs of model (or less if unavailable) • Provides the best forecast over single deterministic model run • 60 days updated every month • Cutting the pie too small results in loss of statistical significance • Addresses seasonality • Difference between model runs can be used to develop confidence interval Carry forward average model forecast along with max and min wind speeds Two coefficient databases need to be developed; 1st is a function of wind direction/time of day; 2nd for hourly averaged forecast

  8. Wind Working Group Directional Component • Divide data by three directions (NW,SE, All others) • Customize per site • Golden Triangle may need four directions • Use model forecast wind (WRF-NAM) • Divide data into eight 3 hour time blocks • Hourly data would be best but there is not enough data (yet) to be statistically significant • Addresses time of day/seasonality • Split by model forecast 80m and 10m winds • Convert wind speed to power and develop coefficients 3 Hour Time blocks (23-00-01) 80m and 10m wind Use Power curves to convert wind speed to power; actuals and data passed to Excel/Matlab to develop regression coefficients as a function of time of day and wind direction

  9. Wind Working Group F0,F1,10m,80m variables passed to Excel to develop regression coefficients for hourly averaged forecast • Second step is developing coefficients for the first and second hour for the hourly averaged forecast • We can either develop the coefficients as a function of time of day or present method of hour one and two • Same procedure would be needed as other models are added • Coefficients database will be updated every 30 days • Whenever a forecast is generated, the coefficients database would be used with forecast data to obtain the actual forecast • Same procedure would be accomplished for hour-ahead forecasts with the addition of “persistence” as a forecast Time of day coefficients F0 and F1 coefficients This establishes the coefficients database.

  10. Wind Working Group

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