Dane County Vandewalle & Associates Strand Associates William O’Connor

1. Dane County Vandewalle & Associates Strand Associates William O’Connor Roadway Concept Select Link Traffic Modeling August 7, 2002

2. Demand Modeling Review

3. Projected ADTs 8,400 12,300 12,300 28,300 29,200 50,000 63,500 Exist Alt 1 Alt 1A 70,500 Alt 2 148,00 Alt 3 148,600 Alt 4 142,300 Alt 5 141,600 141,800 143,200 ~30,000 45,600 43,100 41,400 44,400 94,400 42,700 109,500 108,600 41,700 103,900 108,300 104,000 105,100 67,600 14,800 132,000 128,100 21,300 34,900 130,600 133,000 42,000 42,900 137,800 63,700 138,100 29,000 73,300 33,600 33,100 41,100 30,300 30,200 29,900 104,700 112,000 49,100 110,700 68,200 83,200 108,300 96,000 82,200 106,300 95,000 80,600 91,000 109,000 82,000 94,600 106,200 79,200 90,300 79,000 89,000 System Effects ~Year 2050

4. Projected ADTs 14,800 13,200 8,400 -- -- 21,200 12,300 15,900 8,500 5,200 28,900 10,500 11,400 34,900 14,100 2,300 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 37,000 10,100 42,000 28,300 13,500 3,200 10,100 13,100 13,600 8,700 8,100 4,800 2,400 45,600 42,900 29,200 13,800 10,000 3,000 12,500 14,200 2,400 7,400 8,600 8,600 5,900 45,500 63,700 13,300 50,000 4,000 6,200 11,800 26,200 7,700 6,500 4,500 2,400 8,000 45,400 13,600 69,600 56,100 2,200 5,700 Exist 12,800 23,700 12,600 6,600 8,200 2,200 7,300 47,600 Alt 1 13,100 12,400 9,400 6,300 2,600 1,600 1,100 46,700 Alt 1A 29,000 16,800 11,600 3,800 6,300 2,600 1,400 8,700 Alt 2 33,600 Alt 3 33,100 Alt 4 41,000 30,300 Alt 5 30,200 31,300 7,800 9,400 10,100 8,300 5,500 44,600 45,600 CTH I STH 113 STH 19 Woodland Dr. CTH Q River Rd. CTH K Oncken Rd. Northport Dr. CTH M Schneider Rd. Pheasant Branch Rd. ~Year 2050 Northern Effects

5. Key Conclusions - Demand Modeling • All roadways will need to be upgraded (expanded shoulders, wider cross sections, and access control) to safely handle future traffic demands, no matter which alternative is implemented. • The interstate will experience substantially greater traffic demands no matter which alternative is implemented. • Freeway alternatives will draw small traffic amounts (5 to 10 percent) off of the isthmus and the south beltline. Therefore congestion remains. • Freeway capacity will be fully used no matter which alternative is implemented.

6. Key Conclusions - Demand Modeling • Different land use development patterns (compact vs existing trends) do not alter traffic volumes enough to reduce the need for roadway improvements (3 to 7%). Different land use development patterns do make transit options and alternate modes more viable/feasible. • Excess capacity provided to Century Ave by some alternatives will be absorbed by local growth. Traffic volumes will remain similar to what exists today. • Relief provided to any local collectors by the alternatives will be absorbed by local growth.

7. Key Conclusions - Demand Modeling • The CTH M section from STH 113 to CTH Q is the greatest capacity constraint in the corridor. The largest traffic moving capabilities are observed when capacity is added to this segment • Low build alternatives have heavy intersection volumes that will require higher level intersection improvements

8. Select Link Analysis • Select Link Analysis shows where the traffic is coming from and where it is going to on a selected link. • Useful in understanding travel patterns • Select link analysis does not present total volumes on other roadways feeding or being fed by the link. • For North Mendota Parkway, all select link information has been normalized to percentages. • Reduces chance of misinterpretation • West to East is shown, yet East to West information is essentially identical. • All information is ~2050

9. Select Link Analysis Alternative 1 No Build Land Use Scenario 1 CTH M (STH 113 to CTH K) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 20% 15% 22% 85% 40%

10. Select Link Analysis Alternative 1A No Build w/ Enhancements Land Use Scenario 1 CTH M (STH 113 to CTH K) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 12% 16% 12% 27% 34% 88%

11. Select Link Analysis Alternative 3 Onken Balzer Connection Land Use Scenario 1 CTH M (STH 113 to CTH K) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 28% 13% 12% 16% 60% 38% 20%

12. Select Link Analysis Alternative 5 4-Lane Freeway Off-Alignment Land Use Scenario 1 CTH M (STH 113 to CTH K) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 53% 8% 11% 47% 65% 9% 17% 34%

13. Observations - CTH M East side • Alt 1A improvements to CTH M between STH 113 and CTH K primarily influence travel patterns on Northport. • Currently most CTH M traffic is oriented to Northport. The low build alternatives maintain this orientation. (85% to 15% split) • With each successive improvement, more traffic is oriented towards STH 19 to the north. In alternative 3 the split is 60% to 40% and with alternatives 4 and 5 the split evens to 50% to 50%. • With the higher build alternatives, traffic is attracted to CTH M from greater distances.

14. Observations - CTH M Select Link West side • In the low build alternatives, a greater proportion of the CTH M traffic is drawn from the Century Ave corridor than CTH K or STH 19 • With the higher build alternatives, Century Ave volumes remain constant. The additional build corridor provides a greater proportion of CTH M traffic. • The higher build alternatives draw more traffic from outside arterials. • With the low build alternatives there is more regional and less local traffic on Century. • With the high build alternatives there is more local and less regional traffic on Century. • Century volumes remain constant in both cases.

15. Select Link Analysis Alternative 1 - No Build Land Use Scenario 1 Century Ave (CTH Q to Allen) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 47% 42% 42% 58%

16. Select Link Analysis Alternative 1A No Build w/ Enhancements Land Use Scenario 1 Century Ave (CTH Q to Allen) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 46% 44% 33% 63%

17. Select Link Analysis Alternative 3 Onken-Balzer Connection Land Use Scenario 1 Century Ave (CTH Q to Allen) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 46% 44% 26% 64%

18. Select Link Analysis Alternative 5 4-Lane Freeway Off Alignment Land Use Scenario 1 Century Ave (CTH Q to Allen) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 46% 44% 26% 70%

19. Observations - Century Ave Select Link • Distribution remains relatively constant with all alternatives • Higher build alternatives draw traffic from further east than lower build alternatives

20. Select Link Analysis Alternative 1- No Build Land Use Scenario 1 Northport (CTH M to Knutson Dr) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 41% 10% 48% 10% 56% 18%

21. Select Link Analysis Alternative 1A No Build w/ Enhancements Land Use Scenario 1 Northport (CTH M to Knutson Dr) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 70% 27% 3% 12% 50% 20%

22. Select Link Analysis Alternative 3 Onken-Balzer Connection Land Use Scenario 1 Northport (CTH M to Knutson Dr) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 39% 57% 3% 9% 49% 21%

23. Select Link Analysis Alternative 5 4-Lane Freeway Off Alignment Land Use Scenario 1 Northport (CTH M to Knutson Dr) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 74% 26% 8% 48% 22%

24. Observations - Northport Select Link Analysis • Distribution to the east remains relatively constant with all alternatives. • In the low build alternatives, a moderate to high proportion of Northport traffic is drawn from the Waunakee area. • In the higher build alternatives, Northport draws a greater proportion of its traffic (regional traffic) from farther west, generally along the build corridor.

25. Select Link Analysis Alternative 1 - No Build Land Use Scenario 1 STH 19/Main (CTH Q and Endries Rd) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 18% 50% 55% 5% 44%

26. Select Link Analysis Alternative 1A No Build w/ Enhancements Land Use Scenario 1 STH 19/Main (CTH Q and Endries Rd) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 22% 47% 54% 47%

27. Select Link Analysis Alternative 3 Onken-Balzer Connection Land Use Scenario 1 STH 19/Main (CTH Q and Endries Rd) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 19% 46% 47% 7% 48%

28. Select Link Analysis Alternative 5 4-Lane Freeway Off Alignment Land Use Scenario 1 STH 19/Main (CTH Q and Endries Rd) West to East - Normalized to Percentage ~2050 23% 50% 44% 5% 45%

29. Observations - Main St Select Link • Distribution remains relatively constant with all alternatives • Main Street tends to draw a slightly higher percentage of its traffic from the build corridor.

30. Select Link Also Performed for: • Main Street - CTH Q and Endres • South Beltline - Yahara Bridge • USH 12

31. Next Steps 1. Preliminary transportation recommendations (selection & sequence of improvements) 2. Roadway and community character issues, techniques and recommendations 3. Preservation issues, techniques and recommendations 4. Intergovernmental relations issues, techniques and recommendations 5. Final transportation recommendations 6. Comprehensive Implementation Package Strategy 7. Project Report and, Report Adoption, Project Completion

32. Dane County Vandewalle & Associates Strand Associates William O’Connor Roadway Concept Select Link Traffic Modeling August 7, 2002