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Brazil Projections for Agriculture 2005 - 2013

Brazil Projections for Agriculture 2005 - 2013. Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004 Sao Paulo, Brasil. Ron Trostle and Constanza Valdez USDA, Economic Research Service. Outline of Presentation. Quick Overview Macroeconomic Assumptions Commodity Projections

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Brazil Projections for Agriculture 2005 - 2013

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  1. Brazil Projections for Agriculture2005 - 2013 Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004Sao Paulo, Brasil Ron Trostle and Constanza Valdez USDA, Economic Research Service

  2. Outline of Presentation • Quick Overview • Macroeconomic Assumptions • Commodity Projections • Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Projections Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  3. Brazil: A Major Player in World Agriculture Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  4. Macro Assumptions Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  5. Total Meat Consumption Million metric tons History Projected 2.4 %/year Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  6. Area Harvested Million hectares Projected History Total (grains, oilseeds & cotton) 3.1 %/year 5.5 %/year Soybeans Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  7. Poultry Production & Exports Million metric tons 2.8% Production Exports 2.7% Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  8. Pork Production & Exports Million metric tons Production Exports Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  9. Beef Production & Exports Million metric tons Production Exports Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  10. Corn Exports Million metric tons Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  11. Soybean Exports Million metric tons Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  12. Soybean Meal Exports Million metric tons Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  13. Soybean Oil Exports Million metric tons Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  14. Cotton Exports & Imports Million metric tons Imports Exports Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  15. Wheat Imports Million metric tons Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  16. Keys to Future Growth • Macroeconomic stability • Area growth: • Brazil’s Cerrado soils • Yield growth: • development of tropical crop varieties • Livestock dynamics • Infrastructure development Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  17. Brazil’s fiscal position continues to present a challenge… Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  18. If the real plumbs new depths… 0.9 1.9 2.9 2003-04 Baseline 3.9 6.3 R/$ 4.9 Devaluation scenario 7.0 R/$ 5.9 6.9 2014 7.9 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  19. Brazil’s share of world soybean market increases… Brazil: + 4.8% in 2012 U.S. U.S.: - 3% in 2012 Brazil Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  20. And devaluation could also lead to significant: • Increases in exports of • Corn 231,000 MT, OR 36.2% • Cotton 160,000 MT, OR 67% • Poultry 278,000 MT, OR 15% • Decline in imports of • Wheat 1.0 MMT, OR 12% Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  21. Brazil Projections for Agriculture2005 - 2013 Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004Sao Paulo, Brasil Ron Trostle and Constanza Valdez USDA, Economic Research Service

  22. But Brazil’s importance in global markets goes beyond soybeans… Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

  23. Beef Production & Exports Million metric tons Production Exports Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004

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