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Significant Change of Extratropical Natural Variability associated with Tropical ENSO Anomaly

Significant Change of Extratropical Natural Variability associated with Tropical ENSO Anomaly. Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. Potential Predictability =. Var (climate signal) _________________________________ Var (climate signal) + Var ( climate noise ).

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Significant Change of Extratropical Natural Variability associated with Tropical ENSO Anomaly

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  1. Significant Change of Extratropical Natural Variability associated with Tropical ENSO Anomaly Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

  2. Potential Predictability = Var (climate signal) _________________________________ Var (climate signal) + Var (climate noise)

  3. Conclusion over the NE Pac region, where ENSO signal is rich Time mean flow (ENSO signal) (climate signal) El Nino type La Nina type Spread (natural variability) (climate noise) Significantly smaller Significantly larger

  4. Data Seasonal Forecast Model (Kanamitsu, et al. 2002) T42 & T62 # of runs 10*21 10*21 10*21 10*21 Target season JFM of 1980 – 2000 JFM of 980 – 2000 JFM of 1980 – 2000 JFM of 1980 - 2000 Model Initialized in ~Sep of 1979 – 1999 ~Oct of 1979 – 1999 ~Nov of 1979 – 1999 ~Dec of 1979 - 1999

  5. Data Seasonal Forecast Model (Kanamitsu, et al. 2002) T42 & T62 # of runs 10*21 10*21 10*21 10*21 Target season JFM of 1980 – 2000 JFM of 980 – 2000 JFM of 1980 – 2000 JFM of 1980 - 2000 Model Initialized in ~Sep of 1979 – 1999 ~Oct of 1979 – 1999 ~Nov of 1979 – 1999 ~Dec of 1979 - 1999

  6. 84 JFMS

  7. T62 84 JFMS

  8. 200 Jans 200 Febs 200 Mars La Nina El Nino

  9. Conclusion over the NE Pac region, where ENSO signal is rich Time mean flow (ENSO signal) (climate signal) El Nino type La Nina type Spread (natural variability) (climate noise) Significantly smaller Significantly larger

  10. Potential Predictability = Var (climate signal) _________________________________ Var (climate signal) + Var (climate noise)

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