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Soil Fertility, Fertilizer, and the Maize Green Revolution in East Africa Tomoya Matsumoto and Takashi Yamano (FASID/GRI

Soil Fertility, Fertilizer, and the Maize Green Revolution in East Africa Tomoya Matsumoto and Takashi Yamano (FASID/GRIPS). Contents. Introduction Maize and Fertilizer Use in Kenya and Uganda Data and Descriptive Analysis Data Dairy Production Systems and Organic Fertilizer Use

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Soil Fertility, Fertilizer, and the Maize Green Revolution in East Africa Tomoya Matsumoto and Takashi Yamano (FASID/GRI

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  1. Soil Fertility, Fertilizer, and the Maize Green Revolution in East AfricaTomoya Matsumoto and Takashi Yamano(FASID/GRIPS)

  2. Contents • Introduction • Maize and Fertilizer Use in Kenya and Uganda • Data and Descriptive Analysis • Data • Dairy Production Systems and Organic Fertilizer Use • Maize Costs, Income, and Profit • Estimation Results • Determinants of Fertilizer Use • Determinants of Maize Yield • Conclusions

  3. Introduction • There is a growing interests in realizing an African Green Revolution. • Kenya and Uganda provide an interesting contrast in maize production: Kenya high inputs, Uganda low inputs. • In this study, we compare maize production in these countries to identify constraints on maize production

  4. Purpose of This Study • To describe fertilizer use and maize production, by calculating costs, income, and profit in Kenya and Uganda • To Estimate the determinants of the maize yield, including soil fertility, inorganic and organic fertilizer applications. • Is it profitable to use fertilizer?

  5. Maize in Kenya and Uganda

  6. Nitrogen Consumption in Kenya and Uganda

  7. Data • RePEAT Panel data • Kenya: 2004 and 2007, 725 rural households • Uganda: 2003 and 2005, 895 households • Soil Sampling at the first survey • Kenya about 77 percent • Uganda about 67 percent

  8. Survey Areas

  9. Table 1. Summary Statistics in Kenya

  10. Table 1. Summary Statistics in Uganda

  11. Soil Nutrient Indicator N: soil nutrient indicator, E: soil condition, C: inorganic fertilizer, O: organic fertilizer • Maize Yield Function L: plot size, S: seed quantity, A: TFP

  12. We control for the household fixed effects to eliminate biases created by the correlation between the household fixed effects and independent variables. • We apply the endogenous switching model to control for the maize seed type selection.

  13. Main Hypotheses • Does the soil fertility increase returns from external fertilizer applications? • Is the inorganic fertilizer application optimal?

  14. Maize Yield Fertilizer Price Maize Price Kenya Uganda Fertilizer Application (DAP)

  15. Main Findings • We do not find that the returns from external fertilizer depend on the soil fertility. • This suggests that the external fertilizer applications would be useful even on poor soils in Uganda and Kenya. • The soil carbon content has a large impact on the maize yield. • The inorganic fertilizer use in Kenya is at about the optimal application rate.

  16. Policy Implications • To increase the inorganic fertilizer use. We need to reduce the fertilizer–maize relative price. • Because we find a large positive impact of the carbon content, the results suggest that it is important to improve the soil fertility. • To do so, the organic fertilizer use has to increase. This is a new area for future research.

  17. What’s next for RePEAT Survey? • In Uganda Experiments in Jan-Feb 2009, providing a package of HYV seeds, fertilizer, and extension to households in randomly selected villages of RePEAT Samples Conduct a survey in 2010 to evaluate the impacts • In Kenya Experiments in 2010 on crop insurance? Conduct a survey in 2011

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