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Association of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting

Association of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting. Montreal, June 17-19, 2013. Outline. Budget Analysis. Budget Projections. Economic Forecasts : Options. Reduced Form M odel : Example. IS curve:

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Association of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting

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  1. Association of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting Montreal, June 17-19, 2013

  2. Outline

  3. Budget Analysis

  4. Budget Projections

  5. Economic Forecasts: Options

  6. Reduced Form Model: Example IS curve: Output (GDP)= ƒ(external demand, real interest rate, exchange rate, commodity prices, others) Phillips curve: Inflation (CPI)= ƒ(inflation target, output gap) Exchange rate= ƒ(commodity prices, interest rate differential) GDP inflation= ƒ( CPI inflation, commodity prices) Taylor rule: Interest rate= ƒ(inflation expectation, output gap) Okun’s Law: Unemployment rate-natural unemployment rate)= ƒ(output gap)

  7. Short-term Budget Projection

  8. Tax Revenues

  9. Spending projection

  10. Long-term Budget Projection

  11. Tax Analysis

  12. Estimates Analysis / Appropriation

  13. Costing of Programs and Bills

  14. Costing Process

  15. Costing Models/Tools

  16. Costing Validation

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