The Emergence of Global Environmental Politics

1. The Emergence of Global Environmental Politics How climate change became a central socioeconomic issue

2. Take away concepts What is the “Tragedy of the Commons” and how relevant is it to modern environmental issues? What factors led to the rise of the importance of environmental politics? Factors affecting global environmental policy development. Compare and contrast conventional vs. ecological views of economic activity. Compare and contrast scientific vs. political motivations. What is an environmental policy life cycle?

3. Biosphere2 - A lesson in humility $200 million facility designed to be a self-sustaining life-support system. 3.2 acre enclosed facility, many ecosystems, water and air recycling Experiment in sustainability and complex systems. Eight scientists sealed into Bio2 in 1991 - for 2 years. What happened?

4. BIO2 O2 levels dropped (due to unset concrete), additional O2 pumped in. CO2 levels dangerously high. Nutrient cycling didn’t work effectively Tropical birds died after the first freeze. 19 of 25 small mammals became extinct. Facility overrun by Arizona ant which killed off introduced insects. Insect pollination stopped. Cost: $200 million for eight people over 2 years: • $12.5 million per person annually failed to do what the earth does for “free”

5. “Tragedy of the Commons” metaphor Garrett Hardin (1968) seminal article: Ruination of a limited resource when confronted by unlimited access by an expanding population. Modern reference to Medieval English farmers’ use of pasture “commons”

6. Premise…(Common property resource management: CRM) All farmers have access to enclosed “commons” Farmers motivated ($) to maximize herd • Increased herd --> real unit profits • No (apparent) cost for commons use Population growth coupled to increased resource use leads to overgrazing, erosion, eventual destruction of the commons. Conclusion: “Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all”.

7. Common-Pool Resource Characteristics Common Pool Resources: • Exclusion is difficult and joint use involves subtractability Excludability: • Ability to control access to resource • For many global problems it is impossible to control access Subtractability: • Each user is capable of subtracting from general welfare • Inherent to all natural resource use. How do these apply to Hardin’s premise?

8. Hardin’s proposed solutions Socialism …but natural ecosystems suffered most in communist countries Privatization, or free enterprise …doesn’t work efficiently either

9. Four property rights systems State Property • Total control over (national) resources, but dangers of over-regulation (Ex: Forests). Communal Property • Self-regulation works at local levels (Ex: Native American salmon) Private Property • Rational exploitation of resource. Costs & benefits accrue to the same owner (Ex: Oil deposits). Open Access • Open oceans, atmosphere, biota (ex: whales - depletion occurred rapidly).Most global problems..

10. More... “Pasture model” very provocative but not complete: • Assumes open access and no excludability • Demand was allowed to exceed supply, unchecked. • Resource users were incapable of altering the rules.

11. Examples of “Common-Pool Resources” • Global oceans and atmosphere • Global Climate system • Biodiversity • Ocean Life • Deep seabed minerals • Stratospheric ozone layer • Antarctica What are some others?

12. Common-Pool Resources of Earth Costanza et al., 1997

13. Putting a Price on Nature Costanza et al., 1997

14. Comparing Goods & Services The planet provides many goods and services for “free” Annual cost were we to do it: $33 Trillion Nearly all of this is outside the market system. Global GDP (1997): $18 Trillion

15. How is pollution a “Commons” problem? Inverse of pastureland problem (putting in, not taking away) Unit cost of polluting is much less than cost of proper disposal. Like other “Commons”, problem is compounded by population The propriety of actions must be evaluated within the context of current conditions

16. …and “Shared” resources Extend across exclusion boundaries: • Non-renewable resources • Migratory animals • Complex ecosystems (rainforests) • Global atmosphere and ocean quality • Regional seas, lakes, rivers

17. “Inexhaustible resources of the ocean…”(McVay, 1966) Meyers and Worm, 2003

18. Challenges of the Global Commons • Global = scaled up problem • Global = culturally diverse • Global = interwoven resources • New discovery - accelerating rates of change • Requirement of unanimous agreement as collective choice rule • Time is not our friend Ostrom et al., 1999

19. Science and Policy Communities Scientific enterprise • Inquisitorial system • Data collection, interpretation, revision • Data --> hypothesis --> theory --> law • Search for “truth”, following physical “laws” • “Truth” through data collection, estimates of certainty • Medium: Published papers • Motivation: Recognition and advancement • Accountability: Peer review • Time-frame: Open-ended

20. Science and Policy, con’t Policy-makers: • Adversarial system • Search for compromise, not “truth” • Compromise through negotiation • Medium: Instruments: Convention, Protocol, Frameworks, MOU’s • Motivation: Legal compliance, achieving settlement • Accountability: Legal and public opinion • Time-frame: Usually fixed, rigid

21. So… Scientists and policy-makers have very different motivations, time-frames, accountabilities, and languages. Differing motivations: Inquisitive vs. Adversarial - • a dominant source of misinformation. Successful resolution of global environmental problems needs the input from both communities. The problem needs people who can speak with/to both communities. This is where you come in...

22. What factors led to the the rise of environmental politics? Confluence of: • Global public opinion • Degraded urban (and natural) environments • economic pressures • scientific observations and monitoring • “well-timed” natural climate anomalies • International political leadership

23. Environmentalism emerges Social movement in the 1960’s • 1963: Silent Spring (R. Carson) • 1967:Stockholm Conference (114 countries) • 1967: Apollo photographs of Earth • 1970: first Earth Day The pollution paradigm • Local/regional (not global as many issue are today) • Air, water, food, diversity • Concerns: poisons, litter, population, overexploitation • Cleanup: the zero standard Source: Dr. Paul N. Edwards (Univ. Mich)

24. 1970s: Pivotal Decade Earth Day (1970) • EPA was established Beginnings of sustained climate science and policy interaction Limits to Growth (Donella Meadows, 1972) • long-term global trends in population, economics, and the environment. Supersonic Transport controversy (1970’s) • Front page news on Ozone depletion

25. Toward a Global Vision (by way of a national one) UN Conference on Human Environment (1972)…Studies on: • Critical Environmental problems (1971) • Man’s Impact on Climate (1972) • Global monitoring networks for CO2, pollutants 1973: Natural climate anomalies • Sahel Drought, Peruvian anchovy failure • Soviet Wheat crop failure 1974: Oil Crisis • Dept. Energy Formed • 1977: Carbon Dioxide Impact Assessment • First sustained anthropogenic climate change research effort

26. Events leading to enhanced awareness of Climate Change • Human modification of the atmosphere • Radioactive fallout, (since 1940’s, 1960’s) • Supersonic Transport and strat. clouds (1970’s) • Ozone depletion (EPA bans aerosol can CFC’s, 1976) • “Nuclear Winter” debates (1982-1985) • Chernobyl (1986) - impacts W. Europe • Antarctic Ozone hole (1985) • Summer, 1988: Heat, drought, water shortages • Sea ice and ice sheet melting

27. The USGCRP US Global Change Research Program • Proposed by Reagan in 1989 (Bush, 1990) ~$2 billion annual budget • About half of the total world research effort • Predominantly satellite-based programs Allows administrations to learn more about the problem, potential impacts, and mitigation strategies (but significant US policy action has been deferred)

28. Taking Action: IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Established in 1988 • UN Environmental program • World Environmental Program Assess the “State of the Art” in climate science Represents all interested parties • Scientists, Governments, NGO’s “The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.” http://www.ipcc.ch

29. IPCC (con’t) 2500 of the world’s leading climate scientists and technical experts contribute reports. Produce comprehensive and balanced assessments of climate change science, impacts, and adaptation and mitigation options. Extensive peer-review and governmental review ensures scientific credibility and policy relevance.

30. IPCC Reports four IPCC Reports: 1st 1990 2nd 1995 3rd 2001 4th AR 2007 Each Report has 3 Working Groups: • Scientific Aspects of Climate Change • Socioeconomic impacts and Adaptability • Mitigation measures

31. Economics and Environmental Policy: Old Economics and resource availability/quality are linked fundamentally, but how? But most economic systems do not reflect resource use or ecological degradation • “Frontier Economics” : Nature consists of a set of effectively unlimited resources; humans are separate from ecology. • Based on Neoclassical economics, which assumes: • Free market will always maximize social welfare • There is an infinite supply of resources (as sinks for waste) • (Provided the free market is operating and healthy) This view has been under attack since the 1960’s

32. GNP/GDP are misleading measures GNP/GDP poor measures of economic and societal health: • They hide (do not include) the environmental effects of producing and distributing goods. • They don’t include the depletion of natural resources/assets, environmental “services” upon which all economies depend. Actually including these (and related) costs would fundamentally alter economies

33. Economics and Environmental Policy: New Paradigm shift (1970s-present): Neoclassic Economics --> Sustainable Development Economic growth cannot proceed at the expense of earth’s natural capital and life-support systems. The world economy must live off earth’s “interest” Economic systems should include “costs” of resource use. Means: • Reduce consumption • Improved efficiency • Reduced population • Alternative energy sources • Renewable resource management

34. Economic Solutions (to accommodate environ. “costs”) “Mutual coercion, mutually agreed upon…” • Regulation • Subsidies • Withdrawing harmful subsidies • Tradable rights • Green taxes • User fees • All have Innovation, Competitiveness, Gov’t cost and revenue implications

35. Global Environmental Politics Not a level playing field, yet states must strive for concensus Main determinants of policy: • Veto Power and Coalitions • Trade and Self-interest • Economic power • Public opinion • Negotiation (bargaining) among stake-holders

36. Environmental Policy Life Cycle Recognition • Identifying and quantifying the problem Formulation • Finding solutions Implementation • Implement solutions to mitigate problem Control & Monitoring • Assess impact of policy, revise as necessary

37. International Regimes Set of norms, rules, or decision-making procedures which lead to convergence of opinion. Convention: Legal instrument containing binding obligations Framework Convention: Establishes the groundrules for cooperation without binding obligations. Protocols: Establishes more formal, specific obligations. Non-binding agreement: Soft law, varying degrees of effectiveness (Marine Pollution)

38. 1992 “Earth Summit” on Sustainability UNCED - AGENDA21. UN Conference on the Environment And Development: • Held in Rio, 1992 (150 nations, 10,000 delegates). • Preceded by two years of discussions on domestic and global issues, inequities, and responsibilities. • Final negotiating session at Rio - AGENDA21 • Global plan of action for more sustainable societies. • Non-binding agreement • Industrialized countries asked to accept responsibility to change their “unsustainable lifestyles” - met with resistance.

39. Preamble to AGENDA21 Humanity stands at a defining moment in history. We are confronted with a perpetuation of disparities between and within nations, a worsening of poverty, hunger, ill health and illiteracy, and the continuing deterioration of the ecosystems on which we depend for our well-being. However, integration of environment and development concerns and greater attention to them will lead to the fulfillment of basic needs, improved living standards for all, better protected and managed ecosystems and a safer, more prosperous future. No nation can achieve this on its own; but together we can - in a global partnership for sustainable development.

40. AGENDA21 as example of how environmental policy rapidly becomes complicated US and other developed nations failed to commit resources to support sustainable development. Blocked proposals to change consumption patterns. Developing countries blocked establishment of norms for forest management. Many issues had split responses from developed and developing states (e.g. climate change and oil producing (inland vs. coastal) states). AGENDA21 set into motion progress toward sustainability - first transparent conference. Environmental issues are now becoming dominant factors in global politics

41. What is Columbia doing about this? Prof. Jeff Sachs, Director of Columbia’s Earth Institute CEI Mission: “Mobilizing the sciences and public policy to build a prosperous and sustainable future.”

42. Columbia Earth Institute Some CEI Initiatives: UN Millennium Development Goals Millennium Villages 21st Century Cities El Nino: Climate and Society Abrupt Climate Change CO2 sequestration Global Roundtable of Climate Change Masters and Ph.D. programs Ph.D. and PoS in Sustainable Development