Crime Statistics and EU Organised Crime Threat Assessment

1. Crime Statistics and EU Organised Crime Threat Assessment Prof. Dr. Tom Vander Beken EU Forum for the prevention of organised crime Towards comparable information on crime, victimisation and criminal justice – an EU wide approach European Commission, Brussels, 9 July 2004

2. Overview 1. What organised crime information is available in the EU? 2. What does the EU need? 3. The EU-Action Plan 4. Conclusions

3. 1. Information on OC- State of the art Collecting: All MS and Europol collect information on organised crime. Nearly all information is law enforcement information. Definitions for data collection and data collection plans differ from MS to MS. Analysing: Organised crime information is analysed by all MS and Europol, but in different ways. This makes the national reports very hybrid and the drafting of an EU picture extremely difficult. Very few analytical standards. Mostly traditional crime analysis of criminals and groups. Hardly or not future oriented. No real threat assessment. Few assessments of harm. Comparing: National data and analysis are very different in nature and quality – comparability?

4. 2. What does the EU need? “Continued work is needed to improve the validity, reliability and international comparability of data on organised crime, and on the annual situation reports. In this connection a uniform concept of collection and use of data on organised crime and related phenomena should, to the maximum extent possible, be established so that a practical strategic analysis can be made, leading to the most appropriate measures to combat and prevent organised crime. A more proactive, intelligence-led approach is needed to detect and interrupt organised criminal activities, apprehend offenders, demolish criminal networks, and seize and confiscate the proceeds of crime. The targetting of investigation and the planning of the response of society to organised crime requires knowledge of the profile, motives and modus operandi of the offenders, the scope and trends in organised crime, the impact of organised crime in society, and the effectiveness of the response to organised crime. This knowledge includes operational data (data related to individual suspected and detected cases) and empirical data (qualitative and quantitative criminological data)…” (Millenniumstrategy, 2000) “Analytical capacity within law enforcement agencies of the Member States is a rather new tool and, if available, is usually applied within the context of evidence gathering but not for detection and anticipation of crime-facilitating opportunities and crime trends. Threat assessments, situation reports and risk assessments (identification of vulnerable areas) carried out by law enforcement agencies are often descriptive analysis products. These products should, in addition, be turned into explanatory (understanding the causes of crime) and predictive (prognosis of future developments) analytical products.” (Joint Report by the Commission Services and Europol, 2001)

5. 3. The EU-Action plan (a) 2000: Scientific research for the Belgian Minister of Justice on the development of a new methodology for the Belgian organised crime report. Introduction of a future oriented, risk based four-pillared reporting system: environmental scan (1), oc-group analysis (2), counter measure analysis (3) and market (illegal and legal) analysis (4) Reporting on organised crime. A Shift from Description to Explanation in the Belgian Annual Report on Organised Crime (2001) 2001: Acceptance of the IRCP-methodology at EU-level Action Plan to Study Organised Crime at European Level (Council of the European Union, 8 January 2002, Crimorg 133, 14959/01)

6. 3. The EU-action plan (b) • Conceptual, model, methodology and outcome (IRCP 2001 and Crimorg 2001)

7. 3. The EU-Action plan (c) 2002-2003: Scientific research for the European Commission on the development of a methodology for measuring organised crime in Europe (IRCP-Transcrime-Swedish Council for Crime Prevention) • Pilot study in Belgium, Italy, Sweden and the EU: current practices on measurement of oc, discussion on impact/harm oc, organised crime risk index (co-financed under Hippokrates I programme – JAI/2001/HIP/015) • Feasibility study of a risk-based methodology across the European Union: best practices in other MS on reporting on oc, including analysis, data sources etc. (co-financed under Hippokrates II programme - JAI/2002/HIP/009) • Measuring Organised Crime in Europe (2004)

8. 3. The EU Action plan (d) 2003-2004: Scientific research for the European Commission on the Measurement and Assessment of Vulnerability of Economic Sectors (MAVUS): development of a methodology and vulnerability of two economic sectors (IRCP and Transcrime) Financed under the AGIS programme (JAI/2003/AGIS/132)

9. 3. The EU Action Plan (e) 2004-2005: Scientific research for the European Commission on the Method and the Assessment of Likely Future Trends in Organised Crime in Europe (OCO): development of a method for environmental scanning, draft of an EU scan and three national scans (Belgium, Sweden and Slovenia) (IRCP – Swedish Council for Crime Prevention – and Slovenian Office for Prevention of Corruption) (To be financed under AGIS programme 2004)

10. 4. Conclusions Measurement of organised crime is a priority in the EU. Reliable and comparable information and statistics are absolutely necessary The methodological choices of the EU (risk/threat assessment) require not only data about crimes and criminals (law enforcement activity). Importance of environmental scans, (legal and illegal) market analysis (vulnerability studies and studies about involvement).