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E-Business Brands and the implications of the net. Some Thoughts On:. The Internet and: Brand building at warp speed: the fundamentals still count Three “frees” that are fueling the Net Implications of the Internet. 1986 IBM $73 Exxon $50 G. E. $39 AT&T $27 G.M. $21.
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Some Thoughts On: • The Internet and: • Brand building at warp speed: the fundamentals still count • Three “frees” that are fueling the Net • Implications of the Internet
1986 IBM $73 Exxon $50 G. E. $39 AT&T $27 G.M. $21 Total Market Capitalization
Two Questions • What part do brands play in market capitalization? • What has been the record of the new “Internet Brands?”
Valuing the Brand • Identify the total earnings stream associated with the brand. • Deduct from that the value of a fair return on the fixed assets used by the brand • Further deduct earnings attributed to other intangibles: unique processes, patents, proprietary systems • Evaluate the result as a contributor to market capitalization
Coca-Cola $84 Microsoft $57 J&J $48 IBM $44 GE $34 Ford $33 Disney $32 Intel $30 McDonald’s $26 Billion Dollar Brands • AT&T $24 • Marlboro $21 • Nokia $21 • Mercedes $18 • Nescafe $18 • H-P $17 • Gillette $16 • Kodak $15
Coca-Cola 59% Microsoft 21% J&J 45% IBM 28% GE 10% Ford 58% Disney 61% Intel 21% McDonald’s 64% Brand as % of Market Cap • AT&T 24% • Marlboro 19% • Nokia 44% • Mercedes 37% • Nescafe 23% • H-P 31% • Gillette 37% • Kodak 60%
Cisco $271 AOL $163 Yahoo $51 Amazon $25 eBay $18 Etoys $6 HomeStore $3 Drugstore.com $2 USWeb $3 Bamboo.com $.3 Internet vs. Conventional Brands • AT&T $147 • CBS $37 • Gannett $20 • Barnes&Noble $3 • Knight Ridder $5 • Toys R Us $3 • Cendant $12 • Avis
Internet Accounting • “Get Big Fast” has been the mantra • Suspension of any ROI requirements • Difficult for conventional firm to compete • New metric: ROT or ROB • How does Walgreen compete with Drugstore.com?
Conclusions: • Internet has created huge brands • First movers have gained major advantages • Incumbents have largely missed the Internet • Internet brands use conventional media to validate themselves • You can be “Amazoned” if you are not alert
What is a Brand? What the Internet has not changed: • “Capitalized value of the trust between a consumer and a firm” • Powerful brands can be a company’s greatest asset • “A Brand is a Promise that When Kept Creates Preference”
Building Powerful Brands • Brand Positioning: the core promise to the consumer • Brand Personality: why the consumer should like the brand • Brand Attitude: what the consumer thinks the brand feels about them
Apple Computer McDonald’s IBM Harley Davidson Johnson & Johnson Microsoft New York Times/CBS PollJuly 17 -19, 1999 • Teammate” • “Mother/Child” • “Best Friend” • “Close Friend” • “Childhood Buddy” • “Master/Slave”
Matches • Apple “Close Friend” • McDonald’s “Childhood Buddy” • IBM “Teammate” • Harley Davidson “Best Friend” • Microsoft “Master/Slave” • J&J “Mother/Child”
Brand Positionings • Ingredient Expectations (Hershey) • Performance Expectations (Sony) • Service Expectations (UPS) • Image Expectations (Rolls Royce) • Horizontal - Sears, Disney • Vertical - Campbell’s,Coke
Importance of Brand “At the Coca-Cola Company, each employee has only one job — to protect and enhance the value of the Coca-Cola trademark . . . everything else is fluff!” • Donald R. KeoughPresident (retired)The Coca-Cola Company
Internet and Brands • Brand fundamentals still count • Competitors are often not traditional firms • First mover advantage magnified on the Web • Financial metrics of the .com companies are fundamentally different • “Lead, don’t join them or follow them!”
Innovation • What four great US corporations began in 1886? • Why was this year significant? • Coca-Cola, Sears, Kodak and J&J • By 1886 we had a national communication system and a national transportation system • Internet is the 1999 equivalent of both the railroad and the telegraph
“How e-commerce Will Trump Brand Management”Harvard Business Review J/A 99 • Ad spending continues to climb • Quads, Pods and Optimizers but no real accountability • Where are the efficiency/productivity gains? • Contrast with proven improvements in productivity in other areas: manufacturing, transportation, communications, logistics, etc.
Phil Guarascio of GM “Let me ask you a question about a serious matter: your livelihood. What would you do if your boss had the impression you were expensive, exempt from accountability and expendable? I know what I would do. I’d panic. That’s what we need to do about our collective livelihood, advertising. Because too many bosses - our clients - share that ‘triple-X’ point of view: that advertising is X-pensive, X-empt from accountability and X-pendable.”
1950 Network TV Mainframe Computer Self service retailing Mass Marketing Large brands/firms Vertical monopolies 1950 vs 2000 • 2000 • Fragmented TV • Personal computer • E-commerce • One-to-one marketing • Mass customization & small firms
Predictions: • PC as we know is will be replaced • Reason: “three frees” • Bandwidth • Processing power • Storage costs • TV loses to PC and Info Appliance • Internet changes the marketing landscape: advertising and distribution
Prepare Yourself For: • IP kills switched circuits: AT&T vs Cisco • Internet advertising exceeds network TV levels within five years • Internet demands “integrated marketing” • Super “category killers” in e-commerce • Power shifts overwhelmingly to consumer • Accompany Inc. does “group bids” - Pilot at $347 vs. $316 if 21 people buy at once
Personal Computer • Desktop metaphor from PARC circa 1970’s • Overlapping windows, folders, point & click, files, directories, drives, OS’s, applications, fragmentation, crashes, viruses, etc. • Basis: expensive memory and expensive computing power • Outmoded and to be replaced
Free Bandwidth • See George Gilder • 1984 Mac 400 bits per second • 1998 Mac 56,000 bits per second • ISDN 128,000 bits per second • DSL 1,500,000 bits per second • Cable Modem: 3,500,000 bps • Wave Division Multiplexing: 1 trillion bits per second
Free Storage • Storage costs of 1MB of data • 1988 $11.52 • 1998 10¢ • 2001 2¢ • PVR’s (Replay TV & TiVo) “intelligently” records up to 30 hours of TV; skips commercials
Free Processing Power • 1985 - Intel 386 $120 MIPS • 1989 - Intel 486 $48 MIPS • 1993 - Pentium $13 MIPS • 1995 - Pent. Pro $4.40 MIPS • 1998 - Pentium II $0.99 MIPS • 1999 - Motorola G4 $0.25 MIPS
PC/Info Appliance vs. TV • “Three Frees” and the law of Telecom advantage the PC • Each PC household spends 15 hours/week online and 20 additional hours/week using PC -Odyssey Research 10/5/99
My Belief: • Internet is about to switch metaphors and change our lives • We have to manage this transition • Networking, processing power and free storage will result in a capability for stress reduction and simplicity for your customers
Clear Indicators • Information Technology in US (Software/Hardware/Telecommunications) has become the largest sector of the US economy. ($866 billion) • Larger than Housing, Automobiles or Grocery Products. • Santa Clara County: $26 billion in exports
E-commerce Hot List • Business to Business: MRO • Books, movies music gifts and flowers • Travel services • Automobiles & automotive services • Consumer electronics & toys • Prescription drugs/H&BA • Real estate sales and advertising • Banking and financial services • Employment services
E-tailing: Clicks and Mortar • Savvy retailers will adopt the Internet in association with their storefronts • Even if the purchase is not consummated on the Internet, the “pre-store” shopping will be done on the Net.
Distribution Margins • Four tier system = 50% • Wal-Mart system = 25% • Dell Computer = 10% • OnSale.com = Cost+$10 • Priceline.com = Your Price • Free PC = Nothing
Allstate Insurance • One billion dollars to move to the Web • “The latest example of a traditional ‘bricks and mortar’ company being pulled onto the Web” • Slash 4,000 positions for an annual savings of $600 million • Who’s next? Your company?
Transaction Costs • 1900 - 25% • 1980 - 45% • 2010 - 25% • Paper Purchase Order - $85 • EDI/EFT - 10 cents • USPS - 3 billion invoices/checks
Marketing in an Information Age • One to one; not mass marketing • Relationship not just “selling” • Lifetime value of the customer • Database mining • Reduce customer stress • Increase simplicity
Three Corners of Business Strategy Innovation Customer Focus Operational Excellence
Did I Convince You? • Brands create shareowner wealth? • Internet accelerates this process? • E-businesses are changing the rules? • Attack your own business model before someone else does?
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