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Rare Earth Markets and Their Affects on Solar and Wind Power

Rare Earth Markets and Their Affects on Solar and Wind Power. Professor Daniel J. Packey, Ph.D. Head of the Department of Mineral and Energy Economics Curtin Graduate School of Business Curtin University. Few (if any) Known Substitutes. Source: USGS. 2009 Mine Production. Source: USGS.

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Rare Earth Markets and Their Affects on Solar and Wind Power

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  1. Rare Earth Markets and Their Affects on Solar and Wind Power Professor Daniel J. Packey, Ph.D. Head of the Department of Mineral and Energy Economics Curtin Graduate School of Business Curtin University

  2. Few (if any) Known Substitutes

  3. Source: USGS

  4. 2009 Mine Production Source: USGS

  5. Source: USGS

  6. Source: USGS

  7. Rare Earths Price Index 2002-2010

  8. REO Price Increases in 2010

  9. Market Domination China has significant influence of rare earth pricing and has, in the past, used it to the disadvantage of competitors. The financial markets may not be willing to bear this risk. Source: USGS

  10. Leveraging Resource Advantages China’s export and tax regimes on Rare Earth Oxides, element and metals restricts supply outside of China and “could be seen as a lure to bring Rare Earth Technology manufacturing facilities into China where the export quotas do not apply.” Source: USGS

  11. "There is oil in the Middle East. There is Rare Earth in China". Deng Xiaoping (1992) China’s strategic resource monopoly can be viewed as sovereign dominion over critical resources, related technology and intellectual property Source: USGS

  12. Rare Earth Processing Salt or Caustic Fusion Acid leaching Multistage solvent extraction Resulting in: A dark grey slightly radioactive (Thorium and/or Uranium) sludge laced with toxic compounds

  13. Source: IEA

  14. Source: IEA

  15. Chinese Market Participation The total market share for Chinese wind turbine manufacturers is 30.5% Mostly permanent magnet machines Source: USGS

  16. Permanent Magnet Rare Earth Supply Chain

  17. Source: Dr.Bogi Jensen

  18. Dependency Permanent magnets for generators and other electrical machine consume 40% of rare earth based magnets In 2010, 26,000 tons of Rare Earths 2015 estimate is 48,000 tons 15-30% deficit to production Roskill Information Services - 2010

  19. Windpower developments New Vestas Largest Windmills are still wire wraped, geared generators. The Permanent Magnet markets will be strongly influenced by the Chinese Control of the Rare Earth Markets

  20. Thin Film PV All currently manufactured thin film PV solar cells need either Indium or Tellurium – both of which are Rare Earth Elements Source: USGS

  21. Chinese Market Participation The total market share for Chinese photovoltaics manufacturers is 27% Mostly thin film photovoltaics Source: USGS

  22. A Potential Chinese Development Strategy There's another factor that could increase China's role as a central figure in the renewables space: Its control of 95% of the rare earth resources like Indium, Gallium and Lithium. These are central to the functionality of solar cells (CIGS and CdTe) and battery technologies for automotive and power storage applications. This is not a surprise. But the announcement from Chinese officials last month (July 2010) that it would decrease shipment of these resources by 72% certainly was. The goal is for China to lure technology companies over to the country by giving them access to restricted resources. If it works, we may see a lot more clean energy firms moving over to China. Source: ttp://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/08/rare-earth-resources-increase-chinese-clout

  23. Potential Competition in Photovoltaics The new solar cells convert light into electricity using a semiconductor material made of copper, zinc, tin, and sulfur--all abundant elements--as well as the relatively rare element selenium (CZTS). Reaching near-commercial efficiency levels is a "breakthrough for this technology," says Matthew Beard, a senior scientist at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, who was not involved with the work.

  24. Photovoltaic Developments PV Thin Films will be significantly influenced by Chinese Rare Earth Market Control Due to market share soften by Availability of Potential Substitutes

  25. Rare Earth/ Wind Power and Solar Market Future Chinese will continue to dominant the rare earth refinery market due to refinery by-products. This is independent of ore resources and They are likely to use this to access (and influence) new modern renewable energy (and other) technologies markets.

  26. The End

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