Em Econ 101

1. Em Econ 101 Robin Hanson Economics, George Mason University Affiliate, Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Chief Scientist, Consensus Point Blog: Overcoming Bias

2. Recent US GDP Growth

3. World Product, 1950-2006

4. World Product, 1-2000

5. World Product, 10K BC-2K AD Singularities!

6. World Product, 2 Million BC+

7. Error 9.6% 2.0% 1.7%

8. World Product Growth Rate Could It Happen Again? Industry Farming Hunting Brains

9. Growth Mode Statistics

10. Forecasting The Next Mode Sample growth rate transition Transition date

11. First Adopter Gains Very rough estimates! • Why Gains Falling: • More ways to copy innovations • Larger division of labor

12. What Could Start New Mode? • Space? • Fusion? • Nanotech? • Robots?

13. Industry Shares of US GDP

14. Factor Shares of Income

15. Economics of Robots • Staple of fiction – ancient legends to TV now • If have more of X, do you want Y more (complement) or less (substitute)? • Machine as Substitute to human labor • Ricardo 1821, most science fiction • Wages fall to machine cost • Automation as Complement to human labor • Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus • Wages have risen as automation cost have fallen • So are robots a substitute or complement?

16. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks Robots Substitute On Task, But Tasks Are Complements Tasks Are Complements Machines Do These Humans Do These Substitute For Task

17. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

18. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

19. Needed To Emulate Brains • Model each brain cell type • Scan – freeze, slice, 2D scan • Computer (very parallel task)

20. Key: What Ready Last? • Computing • Smooth anticipated transition • Many participate as equals • Scanning (least likely?) • Big coalitions, first wins; cross-invest! • Most descend from one human? • Modeling • When and who may be big surprise

21. Cheap For Robots • Immortality- yet maybe can’t afford • Travel– transmit to new body (but security?) • Nature – don’t need ecosystems • Labor – work is less tool/capital intensive • Copies! • Malthusian population explosion, rapid growth • Wages may fall to fast-falling hardware cost • Depends on mental-task landscape shape • Happens if they slave or if free • Only Draconian population/wage laws could stop

22. Emulations Feel Human • They remember a human life • Retain human tendencies/personalities • love, gossip, argue, sing, play, laugh, … • More alienated worlds (as were farms, factories) • Office work, leisure in virtual reality • Physical work (~20%?) in android bodies • More unequal abilities, like our fantasy • Can run minds faster, use wildly different bodies • Loyalty testable via sims, shallow mind reading • Many won’t believe are conscious, or “is me” • But same social implications, few dozen is plenty

23. Humans Eclipsed • Wages well below human subsistence • Some humans may find servant jobs • But rich if held non-wage assets • Investments double as fast as economy • Robot-Human war unlikely if integrated • Live/work together, or use same law among/between • E.g., we don’t kill retirees, take their stuff • Most emulationsare of the few best humans • Workaholic, ok with alienation & oft lose memories • First ems win? Billionaires? No kids? Few fems?

24. More Implications • Fast growth discourages transport, encourages local production • Options: copies rent, loan, or slave • Renter, borrow evicted if no pay? • Min wage risks hidden slaves • To recoup train, clan limits wage? • Also regulate to keep clan reputation • Most memory of long train, vacation? • Security to prevent bootleg copies! • Hold copies co-responsible re law? • <1cm tall robots seem feasible • Mind/body can speed up as size falls • 7cm tall => x365, subjective year in day • One skyscraper holds billions - is megacity

25. Daily Life Example • Lots more work time • Less sleep • Virtuals need little personal care, shopping, housework • Few kids, elderly need care • Socializing is more functional than TV

26. Varieties of Lives Time

27. Cycle of “Life” • Bid: Teams bid to be new workgroup, • Originals, clans, others invest in team • Train: maybe many copies, keep best • Vacation: Best gets rest, then copied lots • Job: team does job, socialize w/ other new • Metrics -> rewards, investor payoff • Retire: Job done, archive, revive for ritual? • Spawn: Investors might pick for new bids

28. SEDT = Subjective economy doubling time x1 Talk: Earth+ Height: 1.7m Year in: Year SEDT: month Talking Circles x24 Talk: 1200km Height: 7cm Year in: ½ month SEDT: 2yr x15 Talk: 80km Height: 5mm Year in: day SEDT: 35yr x15 Talk: 5km Height: 0.3mm Year in: 95min SEDT: 500yr

29. α = 0.5, most in big Size More Unequal 105 most in small α = 2 104 103 2012 Firm – α ~ 1 α < 1 per product City/Nation – most in <10, hold 10T+ out of 100T total Family – most in ~200, of 0.5T Income – α ~ 1 (live long) max holds 3%, ~$150T/yr 10M in top 10-7, hold 50% ~$1M/yr = 200K x ave of $4/yr 2046 102 α = 1 101 • Firm – α ~ 1 (was >1) α < 1 per product • City, Nation – α ~ 1 (was >1) • Family – α ~ 2 • Wealth – α ~ 1.4 max holds 0.02%, ~$50B 70M in top 1%, hold 40%, ~$0.5M = 20x ave of $30K 104 105 101 102 103 Frequency

30. Governance • Large gains to coordinate new em cities • Power, cool, support, comm, copy protect • Huge flexibility/speed premium • The first places to embrace, support win big • Congestion barriers fall, allow bigger cities • Most of em economy in a few dense cities • May allow new governance forms • e.g., private law, futarchy, combo auctions

31. Security Approaches • Open source ems (10%?) • Dark same – all copies of same person • High monitoring areas • All sites, traffic watched for stolen ems • Detailed audits check for IP usage, origins • Place as IP unit • Place claims, pays for IP, outsiders no see in • Clans alone – each in own castle

32. Em Relations Associates Groups Profession Team Firm Clan Class City • Parent • Root • Twin • Branch • Spur • Spouse • Lover • Friend • Co-worker • Investor