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Mexican Americans and Politics: Concluding Observations. Mexican Americans and Politics Lecture 17 March 14, 2006. Lopez and Pantoja.
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Mexican Americans and Politics:Concluding Observations Mexican Americans and Politics Lecture 17 March 14, 2006
Lopez and Pantoja • Thesis: A study of multiple-racial/ethnic populations (Blacks, Latinos, Asian Americans) that assesses racial attitudes toward policies that are opportunity enhancing or outcome directed (different forms of Affirmative Action) • Method: Multivariate analysis of the Multi-city Survey of Urban Inequality
Themes for the Course • Historical foundations of Mexican American politics • Emergence of Latino pan-ethnicity and consequences for Mexican Americans • Civic and political engagement • Public policy • Underlying questions in each section • How do Mexican Americans organize to overcome barriers • How does immigration change the politics of Mexican American communities
What We Know About the Future • Mexican American/Latino populations will grow • Intra-Latino diversity will increase • The Mexican American presence will expand in new parts of the United States • The first (immigrant) generation will make up a declining share of the Mexican American population • In the short term (and probably the long term), Mexican Americans will need to rely on coalitional politics to achieve their political and policy goals
Population Composition, 2000-2100 (current immigration levels)
Latin American Legal Immigration, 2002 Mexican Share 58 percent
Estimate—Composition All Latin American Immigration, 2002 Mexican Share 64 percent
Destination States, Mexican Legal Immigrants 2002 (2500+) • California (97,293) • Texas (43,524) • Illinois (11,821) • Arizona (7,932) • Colorado (4,107) • Florida (3,596) • New Mexico (3,575) • Nevada (3,308) • Georgia (2,531) • Washington (2,518)
Latino Age Composition, 2000 Immigrants / U.S. Born
What We Can Reasonably Expect Current trends will not continue • Long-term demographic trends unreliable • Immigration at high rates has continued longer than in previous American history • A backlash likely to emerge • Backlashes can mobilize (while slowing immigration) • Remember that Mexican Americans, and particularly Mexican American citizen voters, are not supporters of immigration at current levels
Identity in Flux Even if current trends continue • Race/ethnic identities change • Mexican American identity faces four challenges • Rise of second and third+ generations • Pan-ethnicity • Decline in the salience of ethnic identity • Emergence of institutionally sanctioned and recognized multi-racial/multi-ethnic identities
Population Growth Ensures that Influence Will Increase • But, • It will not grow as quickly as population – resources for mobilization low • Competition for Mexican American political support often weakened by structural factors outside community’s control • Community leadership is weak and not growing • Consequence • Risk of alienation • Confusing distance with exclusion
Villaraigosa Election Offers a Possible New Model • Los Angeles shares political characteristics with other major urban areas • Latino plurality, with Latino electorate making up a smaller share of voters than does Latino population of total population • Rich pool of Latino leaders at the council/school board level • Tensions – arguably fears – of Latino empowerment in African American communities • White leaders who are skilled at dividing minority communities • Divisions within Latino elites – concerns about raising prominence of others
Yet, Villaraigosa Was Able to Win (After a Loss in 2001) • How? • Latino unity and division among other electorates • “Division” misses key Villaraigosa victories • White and African American elites • Young African Americans • Liberal whites • Weak opponent • Nevertheless, Villaraigosa has energized Los Angeles political elites and centralizing power in the office of the mayor
So • The future is bright • But, the future may be further away than many believe • If that future is too far off, many will move away from a Mexican American identity • Immigration continually reinforces identity • Immigration “reforms,” if implemented, will likely reduce immigration, particularly Mexican immigration • 2nd and beyond generations will make up increasing share of the Mexican American population • Will Mexico / Mexican American identity be of importance, particularly if immigration declines?