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A Primer for Politics in Slovakia Tim Haughton, University of Birmingham and Kevin Deegan-Krause, Wayne State Univers

A Primer for Politics in Slovakia Tim Haughton, University of Birmingham and Kevin Deegan-Krause, Wayne State University. `. Topics. `. Legal Framework How do law and constitution shape politics? Issues What is politics really about? Parties What do the main players stand for?

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A Primer for Politics in Slovakia Tim Haughton, University of Birmingham and Kevin Deegan-Krause, Wayne State Univers

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  1. A Primer forPolitics in SlovakiaTim Haughton, University of Birmingham and Kevin Deegan-Krause, Wayne State University `

  2. Topics ` • Legal Framework • How do law and constitution shape politics? • Issues • What is politics really about? • Parties • What do the main players stand for? • Can they get what they want? • Coalitions • What governments could form after the 2006 election? • What are the implications for the US?

  3. Part I. ` • Legal Framework for Politics • Electoral System • Presidency • Coalition Council • Laws on Parties

  4. Legal Framework • Electoral System • One single nation-wide district • Proportional distribution of seats Share of Seats Share of Votes

  5. Legal Framework • Electoral System • One single nation-wide district • Proportional distribution of seats • But 5% threshold determines proportions Share of Seats Share of Votes

  6. Legal Framework • Electoral System • One single nation-wide district • Proportional distribution of seats • But 5% threshold determines proportions Just over 5% Share of Seats Share of Votes

  7. Legal Framework • Electoral System • One single nation-wide district • Proportional distribution of seats • But 5% threshold determines proportions Less than 5% Share of Seats Share of Votes

  8. Legal Framework • Electoral System • One single nation-wide district • Proportional distribution of seats • But 5% threshold determines proportions • Presidency • Few powers (affects appointments, limited veto) • But direct election means legitimacy • And president chooses Prime Minister designate • Coalition Council • Informal organization • But after 2002, de facto center of power • Means that party leaders need not always be members of government • Party Rules

  9. Part II. ` • Issues • Economic Reform • Integration • Nationalism and Democracy • Culture and Morals

  10. Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present Nationalism CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Broader Integration

  11. Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present 1990 Independent Slovakia CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Czechoslovakia

  12. Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present 1992 Independent Slovakia CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Czechoslovakia

  13. Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present 1994 Slovak Nationalism Authoritarianism CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Czechoslovakia/Integration Democracy

  14. Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present 1998 Slovak Nationalism Authoritarianism CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Integration Democracy

  15. Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present 2002 Nationalism/Euroskepticism Authoritarianism CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Integration Democracy

  16. Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present Today Nationalism/Euroskepticism Authoritarianism CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Integration Democracy

  17. Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present Emerging? Nationalism/Euroskepticism Authoritarianism Church/Morality CommunismState Control Anti-Communism Free Market Cultural Freedom Integration Democracy

  18. Issues: Free Market v. State Control • The “Neoliberal” Project • Tax: flat-rate and low rates (Miklos) • Welfare: social security, pensions (Kanik) • Health: hospitals and insurance firms operate as businesses (Zajac)  • Education: university fees (Fronc)     • Justice: "Californication of Justice Policy" (Lipsic) • But specific parties have specific (and different) agendas • Agendas reflected in control of ministerial portfolios

  19. Issues:Residual Issues • Residual Anti-Integration/Nationalism • Hungarian questions • Roma questions • Residual Authoritarianism • The question of Meciar • The question of Fico

  20. Issues:Emerging Issues • Emerging Moral Issues • Abortion • Homosexuality • Emerging Cultural Issues • Admission of Turkey to the EU • Christianity in EU Constituiton

  21. Part III. ` • Parties • Importance: How much popular support? • Stability: What kind of popular support? • Organization: Who makes party decisions? • Ideology: What does the party stand for?

  22. Parties SDKU Smer SMK KSS KDH HZDS ANO SNS

  23. Parties: How popular? SDKU

  24. Parties: How popular? SDKU

  25. Parties: Who supports? SDKU Knows English Young Educated Urban Wealthy Secular Male SDKU SDKU SDKU SDKU SDKU SDKU SDKU Only Slovak Old Low Education Rural Poor Religious Female Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey

  26. Parties: Who decides? SDKU Leader Apparatus Membership SDKU SDKU SDKU Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey

  27. Parties: Who decides? SDKU Leader Apparatus Membership How unified?Splits since founding:Slobodne Forum (2003)Splinters since founding:A fewApparent factions:Residual from prior parties (DU, KDH, DS)Split/Splinter PotentialCurrently low but higher if loss of office Smer Smer Smer

  28. Parties: Where do party voters stand? SDKU Market Freedom EU/Int’l Integration Minority Rights Cultural Freedom SDKU SDKU SDKU SDKU State Control National Independence Slovak Predominance Morality Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey

  29. Parties: How much do issues matter? SDKU Charisma Platform Clientelism SDKU SDKU SDKU Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey

  30. Parties: How popular? SMK

  31. Parties: How popular? SMK

  32. Parties: Who supports? SMK Knows English Young Educated Urban Wealthy Secular Male SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK Only Slovak Old Low Education Rural Poor Religious Female Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey

  33. Parties: Who decides? SMK Leader Apparatus Membership SMK SMK SMK Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey

  34. Parties: Who decides? SMK Leader Apparatus Membership How unified?Splits since founding:NoneSplinters since founding:NoneApparent factions:Many, ideological and “regional”Split/Splinter PotentialLow as long as current electoral system continues Smer Smer Smer

  35. Parties: Where do party voters stand? SMK Market Freedom EU/Int’l Integration Minority Rights Cultural Freedom SMK SMK SMK SMK State Control National Independence Slovak Predominance Morality Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey

  36. Parties: How much do issues matter? SMK Charisma Platform Clientelism SMK SMK SMK Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey

  37. Parties: How popular? KDH

  38. Parties: How popular? KDH

  39. Parties: Who supports? KDH Knows English Young Educated Urban Wealthy Secular Male KDH KDH KDH KDH KDH KDH KDH Only Slovak Old Low Education Rural Poor Religious Female Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey

  40. Parties: Who decides? KDH Leader Apparatus Membership KDH KDH KDH Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey

  41. Parties: Who decides? KDH Leader Apparatus Membership How unified?Splits since founding:SKDH (1991), SDKU (2000)Splinters since founding:FewApparent factions:Minor, Europhiles v. EurophobesSplit/Splinter PotentialLow Smer Smer Smer

  42. Parties: Where do party voters stand? KDH Market Freedom EU/Int’l Integration Minority Rights Cultural Freedom KDH KDH KDH KDH State Control National Independence Slovak Predominance Morality Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey

  43. Parties: How much do issues matter? KDH Charisma Platform Clientelism KDH KDH KDH Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey

  44. Parties: How popular? ANO

  45. Parties: How popular? ANO

  46. Parties: Who supports? ANO Knows English Young Educated Urban Wealthy Secular Male ANO ANO ANO ANO ANO ANO ANO Only Slovak Old Low Education Rural Poor Religious Female Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey

  47. Parties: Who decides? ANO Leader Apparatus Membership ANO ANO ANO Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey

  48. Parties: Who decides? ANO Leader Apparatus Membership How unified?Splits since founding:NoneSplinters since founding:ManyApparent factions:Personality basedSplit/Splinter PotentialModerate but very high if loss of office Smer Smer Smer

  49. Parties: Where do party voters stand? ANO Market Freedom EU/Int’l Integration Minority Rights Cultural Freedom ANO ANO ANO ANO State Control National Independence Slovak Predominance Morality Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey

  50. Parties: How much do issues matter? ANO Charisma Platform Clientelism ANO ANO ANO Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey

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