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Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell Vehicles Oct. 24, 2003

Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell Vehicles Oct. 24, 2003. Gary Flomenhoft, BSME, MAPP, CEE Research Associate Gund Institute, SNR Owner: InnEVations.com. Electric Vehicles 1st Wave 1890-1920.

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Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell Vehicles Oct. 24, 2003

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  1. Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell Vehicles Oct. 24, 2003 Gary Flomenhoft, BSME, MAPP, CEE Research Associate Gund Institute, SNR Owner: InnEVations.com

  2. Electric Vehicles 1st Wave 1890-1920 The years 1899 and 1900 were the high point of electric vehicles in America, as they outsold all other types of cars. Source: US DOE “Better batteries 10 years away” “Liars, damn liars, and battery manufacturers.” -Thomas Edison (Ni-Fe)

  3. Hubbert Oil Cycle M. King Hubbert

  4. Two Views • Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resources • “Drowning in oil” The Economist, March 6th-12th 1999, pp. 23-25 • Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oil • “The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and Laherrere) S. Gürcan Gülen, Ph.D.

  5. Ehrlich/Simon bet

  6. Source-World Oil Extraction

  7. World Oil Extraction

  8. Hubbert-Epoch of Fossil Fuel

  9. World Oil Extraction

  10. World Oil Extraction

  11. World Oil Extraction

  12. Atmospheric CO2 since 1000AD CO2 PPM

  13. SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Does CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?

  14. SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Does CO2 change the climate and how bad is it? 2 BILLION YEARS You are here

  15. SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Does CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?

  16. SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Arctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs

  17. Europe in August 2003

  18. CLIMATE DAMAGE

  19. CLIMATE DAMAGE

  20. CLIMATE DAMAGE

  21. 1980’s 2nd Wave of EVs Jet Industries: Citi-Car (Beaumont) Electricar Lectra “Better batteries 10 years away”

  22. Percentage Sector Contribution to Air Pollution Emissions (1995) AIR POLLUTION FATALITIES NOW EXCEED TRAFFIC FATALITIES BY 3: 1 http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update17.htm

  23. US CO2 by Sector (1999) Source: (US EPA)

  24. Source: EPA

  25. Gas Hog Tax Credit Hummer H1 Sticker price $106,185 Current law Equipment deduction $25,000 Total tax deduction* $60,722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75,000 Total tax deduction* $88,722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense

  26. Tom Tomorrow

  27. If World consumption = US: Need 4 more planets Source: Center for A New American Dream

  28. Cars per Thousand People Source: JustAuto.com “Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more.” Thomas Gross, US DOE

  29. Why did automakers build EVs in 90’s? NOT Env. Or MARKET DRIVEN! Gas is cheap. ($400 billion annual subsidy) • 1990-CARB Mandate • More than 95% of Californians live in areas that do not meet health-based federal or state air quality standards. • Approximately 50% of smog-forming pollutants come from gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. • Although many automobiles sold in California today are 98% cleaner than those sold 30 years ago, population growth and increased driving may soon outpace our ability to improve air quality if we rely solely on continued improvements to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. • ZEVS required for further reductions

  30. 1990 CA Air Resources Board Mandates * Requirement modified in 1996

  31. ZEV EMISSIONS Do ZEVs simply shift air emissions from one place to another? Source: CA Air ResourcesBoard Even when taking into account power plant emissions, ZEVs are 95% cleaner than even the lowest emitting conventional vehicle.

  32. EVs 3rd Wave 1990+: First Phase = (Small Conversion companies) Solar Electric Engineering (US Electricar) “Better batteries 10 years away”

  33. MendoMotive

  34. InnEVations

  35. Thunderstruck-EV.com

  36. 1990’s 2nd Phase: Small Corporations, US Solectria: Corbin: Tropica (Beaumont) “Better batteries 10 years away”

  37. Europe: City-El 5000 Sold Party

  38. Phase 3: Nearing 1998 Detroit and Japan Detroit: We can’t do it. Hire Lawyers.(Can’t do seatbelts, 5mph bumpers, side impact protection, unleaded gas, better gas mileage, airbags, etc.) GM EV-1 Gen 1: Lead Acid 70 - 90 miles Gen 2: Nickel Metal Hydride 125-150 miles * Requirement modified in 1996

  39. Cost of regulations-OMB report Annual Cost: $37-43 billion EPA conservative approach, Consistently overestimates costs, not considering least cost approach and technical innovation Annual Benefits: $121-193 EPA consistently underestimates benefits USING ACTUAL NOT THEORETICAL CASES BENEFITS OUTWEIGH COSTS 5:1

  40. Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers. EV Plus Specs Length: 159.3 in. Width: 68.9 in. Height: 64.2 in. Wheel Base 99.6 in. Track Front/Rear: 59.1/58.7 Curb Weight: 3593.5 Drive Train: Front Wheel Drive Occupants: Four Voltage: 288 Motor: Brushless PM Power: 49 Kw (66hp) Battery 24 12v NiMH Charger: On-board Conductive Recharge: 6-8 hrs Acceleration: 4.9 sec (0-30 mph) Maximum Speed: 80+ mph Range: 100 miles (80% discharge) Lease Cost: $455/mo for 36 mo. Honda EVPlus Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles

  41. Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers. Honda EVPlus Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles Nissan Altra Lithium-ion 80-100 miles Toyota RAV4-EV Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles Better Batteries are finally here, but you can’t afford them.

  42. Neighborhood Electric Vehicles FORD Th!nk Nissan Hypermini Chrysler GEM Toyota E-com OTHER EVS

  43. ENERGY STORAGE Gasoline:C8H18

  44. ENERGY STORAGE Source: USABC and others

  45. LITHIUM-ION BATTERY SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.

  46. COMPOSITE FLYWHEELS SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.

  47. SUPERCAPACITORS SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.

  48. ZINC-AIR FUEL CELL SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.

  49. MECHANICAL RECHARGE ZINC-AIR FUEL CELL SOURCE: METALLIC POWER.COM

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