A Moral Obligation, An Economic Priority:

1. A Moral Obligation, An Economic Priority: The Urgency of Enrolling Out-of-School Children Nicholas Burnett April 29, 2013

2. Outline • Primary Education: A Basic Human Right • Out-of-School Children: A Persistent Global Challenge • The Economic, Social, Politicaland Environmental Benefits of Primary Education • The Economic Costs of Out-of-School Children 1

3. Primary Education: A Basic Human Right “Everyone has the right to education.” Article 26 of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights “Ensuring that by 2015 all children, particularly girls, children in difficult circumstances and those belonging to ethnic minorities, have access to, and complete, free and compulsory primary education of good quality.” “Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling.” Education For All Goal 2 Millennium Development Goal 2 2

4. Out-of-School Children • According to official estimates, over 61 million children of primary school age are out of school (UIS 2012). • Discrepancies between latest household datasets and UIS/UNESCO data on out-of-school children suggest that the global population of OOSC is much higher. 3

5. Out-of-School Children • Progress in reducing OOSC has stagnated since the mid-2000s. • OOSC are concentrated geographically (Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia) and demographically (females, children living with disabilities, and the poor). • In some regions, OOSC is a persistent problem due to conflict or natural disaster. 4

6. Out-of-School Children: Country Variation The uneven progress in reducing OOSC makes this a critical time to reconsider the benefits of primary education and support EAC’s mission. 5

7. What benefits do out-of-school children forgo? 6

8. Economic Benefits of Primary Education • Wage/Productivity gains associated with years of schooling. • Economic returns to primary education are high, and critical to rising out of poverty. Returns to Investment in Education LevelSource: Psacharopoulos and Patrinos 2011 • Primary education has additional value as a gateway to the income benefits associated with post-primary education. Changes in Marginal Return to Education in Latin America in the 1990s.Source: Behrman, Birdsall, and Szekely (2003) Note: Linear return refers to yearly change in returns. 7

9. Social Benefits of Primary Education • An instrument for social reproduction of social change. Good quality curricula can be instrumental for societal and personal values. • Positive influence on education attainment of the next generation. • Amartya Sen’s capabilities framework. • Gross primary enrolment rates associated with lower rates of crime. • Social Cohesion. • Gender Equity, empowerment, self-esteem. 8

10. Health Benefits of Primary Education Comparison of Under-five Mortality Rates by Mother’s Education Level (2000-2010) • Maternal and Child Care. • Reproductive behaviors. • Nutrition. • Mortality Rates. • Communicable disease. • Health literacy. The top bar in each set compares children of mothers with no education to children of mothers with post-primary education. The bottom bar compares children of mothers with no education to children of mothers with primary education. 9

11. Political Benefits of Primary Education • Development of democracy. • Civic engagement. • Government accountability. • Voter participation. • Additional benefits in conflict/post-conflict states. • Peace-building.

12. Environmental Benefits of Primary Education • Emerging evidence that education is associated with resilience to natural disasters (Blankespoor 2010). • Primary education can also play a key role in mitigating climate change, by encouraging environmentally sustainable lifestyles. 11

13. What are the economic costs of out-of-school children? • Microeconomic Approach • Macroeconomic Approach A How much higher would GDP be… …in ten years, if all of today’s children currently expected not to complete primary school actually do complete basic education? …today, if a country had achieved universal primary school completion for the entire working population? 12

14. Microeconomic Cost Estimation Total Microeconomic Cost = B - A (see graph)= [% non-completing OOSC] x [Wage premium to primary education] Direct Cost as a % of GDP = + + [% non-completing OOSC] x [Wage premium to secondary education] x [rate of continuation from primary to secondary school] x [rate of secondary school completion] Probability-weighted GDP loss from forgone secondary education = 13

15. Microeconomic Cost Estimation

16. Macroeconomic Cost Estimation • Relationship between income and schooling estimated by Barro and Lee (2010). • If the average citizen completes primary education, then S = 6. • The red segment above shows the estimated macroeconomic cost of OOSC for a country with S = 4. 15

17. Macroeconomic Cost Estimation 16

18. Conclusion • Research confirms that primary education has a range of strong positive impacts, increasing income potential, empowering citizens, reducing crime rates, improving public health, and breaking the cycle of poverty. • Good quality education fosters life-long learning and ensures progress to higher education. • The economic cost of today’s out-of-school children is as much as 7% of GDP in some developing countries. • Out-of-school children represent an even greater source of economic loss when uneducated adults (out-of-school children of past generations) are accounted for. Out-of-school children represent an unconscionable underinvestment that prevents nations from reaching their full economic and social potential.