Nuclear Electricity in the CEE Region: Current State and Development Prospects

1. Nuclear Electricity in the CEE Region:Current State and Development Prospects R I Facer, NENP-NPTDS, IAEA

2. Blue, countries with NPPs, Pink, countries that considered NPPs

3. Reasons why not proceeded in the past • Finance • Nuclear economics unattractive • Infrastructure costs high • Costs of new facilities high • Liability for waste uncertain • Manpower unavailable • Lack of skills • Lack of trained manpower • Public distrust • Private industry decisions • Alternatives available

4. Changing conditions • Economics of alternative energy sources • Rising price of fossil fuels • Nuclear continuing in many countries • Identified success for countries that have nuclear power • Security of supply • Independence from single supplier • Growing environmental concerns over fossil fuels

5. Developing countries Japan / ROK FSU / EE Western Europe North America Global Nuclear Capacity

6. 18 000 16 000 14 000 Natural gas 12 000 10 000 Mtoe Oil 8 000 6 000 Hydro Coal 4 000 power 2 000 Other renewables Nuclear power 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 World Primary Energy Demand Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel

7. Into Uncharted Territory:The Earth out of Balance 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 IPCC Projection CO2 trapped in Ice Cores (ppm) Vostok Record IPCC Scenario Current (2003) 400 300 200 100 0 Age (thousands of years before present)

8. Climate Change: It Is Already Occurring An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming World. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

9. Technologies Exist to Begin to Take Action R Socolow, Science 2004

10. Agency Activities • Regional Europe TC Projects • Operational Support • Safety/regulatory support • National Projects • Energy Planning, capacity building • License renewal/Life extension • Infrastructure support • Specific national requests

11. Strengthening capabilities for NPP performance and service life • Experience over the past four years

12. World Energy today

13. Prognosis for the future • World demand increases • Asia increases much faster than world average • Fossil fuel use has massive increase • Environmental stress

14. CEE

15. Nuclear Support In the Countries where nuclear power contributes significantly to the national electricity supply there is broad political consensus that nuclear power should continue

16. CEE Nuclear plans (existing nuclear countries)

17. Other Countries plans • Several Countries have expressed interest recently, particularly since Paris Conference “Nuclear Power for the 21st Century” at which 34 Ministers presented speeches discussing their countries interest in possible nuclear power plants in the future. • At present there are 24 nuclear plants under construction in 9 countries

18. European Green Paper • Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply (2000) • Three Main Points • Increasing Dependence upon external energy sources (70% by 2030) • Little scope to influence energy supply conditions • Not in a position to respond to challenge of Climate Change

19. European Context • Nuclear can reduce external dependence upon fossil energy • Nuclear can provide energy without Greenhouse Gas emissions • Nuclear can provide diversity of national energy supply and improved national energy supply security

20. Nuclear Availability • Technology available now for large nuclear plant, in an integrated grid system • Several plants being built worldwide that could be used in Europe • Several designs approaching implementation for small or medium sized reactors that could be used on a more localised basis. • European Infrastructure exists that could support the introduction of a nuclear plant for any country in Europe

21. Nuclear fuel and waste • Recent speech by US Secretary of State for Energy • US sees fuel cycle states offering ‘cradle to grave’ fuel cycle services, leasing fuel and then taking it back for reprocessing and disposition. • This service is already available from Russia, and hence should develop into the normal means of fuel supply and removal service

22. Waste storage • Generally this is a technically solved problem, and the future position of return of fuel to the supplier country should reduce the number of storage locations that are needed.

23. Nuclear and Renewables • Nuclear power should not be seen as competing with renewable energy systems • Both renewable systems and high quality nuclear power are needed to ensure a secure energy supply system

24. The next steps • Nuclear needs to be recognised as a significant potential energy source for Europe • For countries that do not already operate nuclear power plants the IAEA can provide support to develop and strengthen the Infrastructure in these countries • Action is needed quickly to avoid a significant problem for Europe in terms of energy supply security

25. The end, thank you