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HK's labour market

香港特別行政區政府 Hong Kong SAR Government. HK's labour market. 21 September 2005. Several angles. Manpower resource balance – skill mismatch? – job mismatch? Long-term unemployment rate on the rise? Pace of employment growth in current upturn, c.f. average cycle in the 1980s and 1990s

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HK's labour market

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  1. 香港特別行政區政府 Hong Kong SAR Government HK's labour market 21 September 2005

  2. Several angles • Manpower resource balance – skill mismatch? • – job mismatch? • Long-term unemployment rate on the rise? • Pace of employment growth in current upturn, c.f. average cycle in the 1980s and 1990s • Major shifts in Phillips curve over time ?

  3. I. Manpower resource balance

  4. II. Long-term unemployment rate on the rise ?

  5. Long-term unemployment rising disproportionately during downturn; yet also falling back distinctly during upturn % % 3 14 12 2.5 Long-term unemployment rate 10 (left scale) 2 8 1.5 Overall 6 unemployment rate (right scale) 1 4 0.5 2 0 0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

  6. Improvement in long-term unemployment in latest upturn is across-the-board Percent 6 Manufacturing Construction Wholesale, retail, import/export, restaurants and hotels 5 Transport, storage and communications Financing, insurance, real estate and business services 4 3 2 1 0 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

  7. III. Slow-down in pace of employment upturn after 98?

  8. Job losses in manufacturing vs job gains in service sectors

  9. Average change in employment (% per annum)

  10. % change in employment per % change in output

  11. IV. HK’s Phillips curve

  12. Discussion: • How much more can unemployment improve further? • Cyclical vs structural part of unemployment? • Shifts in long-run Phillips curve and nairu? • Structural factors/rigidities: Increasing job/skill mismatch ? Wage inflexibility? Labour legislation? Ageing? Welfare policy? High public transport fare & public housing policy? Increasing barriers to businesses and/or less entrepreneurship?

  13. Thank you

  14. Correlation with output gap

  15. % change in employment per% change in GDP Average: 0.36

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