Presentation to the NOAA Executive Committee by Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

1. DRAFT NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate Prediction “Imagine the Future”Opportunities for NOAA and Research/Academic Partners Presentation to the NOAA Executive Committee by Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction December 8, 2006

2. NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate Prediction “Imagine the Future”Opportunities for NOAA and Research/Academic Partners • Purpose: Invited Information Brief • Background: Building Blocks in Place for Advancing NOAA Prediction Capabilities • Strategic Opportunities for NOAA • Vision for the Future • Output: Future Steps

3. Purpose: Invited Information Brief Opportunities offered by the NCWCP • Linking NOAA/NWS/NESDIS/OAR/NOS to larger research and academic communities • Accelerating the transition of research to operations and applications • Improving products and services • Operational global analyses of the “earth system” • Prediction products • Recruiting the next generation of NOAA employees

4. Background: Building Blocks in Place for Advancing NOAA Prediction Capabilities Research Components • University of Maryland: New Building Right Next Door! • Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center • Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies • DOE and NSF climate program components • NASA/GSFC: Considering move(s) to new UMD Building • Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office • Hydrology Laboratory • Goddard Laboratories for Atmospheres • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Co-located with NCEP at the NCWCP

5. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction First New UMD Building NORTH

6. Background: Building Blocks in Place for Advancing NOAA Prediction Capabilities Unique Operational Infrastructure – Cutting across all NOAA Lines • Access to 200 + million observations/day from the entire globe (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere) • Remotely sensed (Satellite, radar, …) • In situ (surface, aircraft, buoys, balloon borne, …) • Data assimilation infrastructure geared to entire range of data for operational and research use • Model predictions: from dispersion to S/I climate • Atmosphere, land, ocean, cryosphere • Deterministic and Ensemble • Service Centers: deliver products that cover range from short-range weather and oceans to seasonal and interannual climate

7. Background: Building Blocks in Place for Advancing NOAA Prediction Capabilities Research/Transitions: “Accelerating the R2O Process” • Environmental Modeling Center – partners with • NESDIS • NOS • OAR/ESRL, ARL, GFDL, NSSL • NASA/GSFC • NRL • NCAR/DTC • Climate Test Bed • Accelerate improvements to CFS for S/I predictions • NASA/NOAA/DOD Joint Center for Data Assimilation • Accelerate the use of satellite data; ready for NPOESS at day 1 • Hydrometeorological Test Bed (under development) • NCEP Central Operations: fully documented implementation process used by research and operations partners

8. NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Effort Field Offices; Other NOAA Components Service Centers EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds JCSDA Hydromet. Test Bed Climate Test Bed WRF DTC JHT Operations R&D Delivery Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

9. Strategic Opportunities for NOAA • How best to capitalize: • NOAA’s investment in the NCWCP • Ongoing partnership with UMD and other research entities • Collaborative efforts with NASA/GSFC To improve and expand NOAA’s products and services? • How to seize the opportunities as NOAA expands into an “earth system” approach for research to service provision that addresses the interdisciplinary approach required to improve products and services? • How to attract the “best and the brightest” to address NOAA’s goals? Center of gravity offered by NCWCP recognized by the PSTT report to the NOAA Research Council

10. Vision for the Future From the Building Blocks: Create the Advanced Study Institute for Environmental Prediction (ASIEP): based on ASIEP White Paper* • Expand beyond the traditional weather and climate prediction • Expand Ocean  Coastal Zone predictive capabilities • Expand water/air quality predictive capabilities * Coordinated through NOAA Research Council PPBES – W&W/EMP, Climate Line Offices – NWS, NESDIS, OAR, NOS

11. Vision for the Future Make NCWCP a central underpinning for GEOSS • Build upon data/model distribution from operations to research communities: • NCDC NOMADS Archive and Distribution • Unidata CONDUIT/NCAR Archive • Ocean Model output to Regional Centers For full capitalization of NOAA’s investment • It is not just “R2O” • It is also “O2R” Research Operations Field Programs (e.g. THORPEX, IPY, …) Atmosphere Ocean Land Cryosphere Data Access Data Assimilation Model Forecast

12. Output: Future Steps • Energize the PPBES – account for possibilities offered by • NCWCP • Ongoing “building blocks” of Operations, Research, Transition • Re-energize the the ASIEP proposal through W&W/EMP, Climate and Ecosystem • Relook at NCWCP and JCSDA roles within GEOSS

13. Output: Future Steps • Consider a co-location • Increased programmatic requirements beyond NCWCP (Climate Test Bed and NESDIS GOES R) already being considered for co-location • Need a concerted look at possibility of NOS Ecosystem components co-locating with NCWCP

14. Summary • Creation of NCWCP and concurrent actions by UMD point to “once in a lifetime” opportunities for NOAA • Unique combination of global operational infrastructure and research components • Expansion of the prediction component beyond the standard weather, climate and ocean into ecosystems, air/water quality, health,… • GEOSS • Proposal for ASIEP being worked through NOAA process that needs to be energized • Various co-locations/moves could still be considered – need to be aggressively considered • Center of excellence will provide a ready source for the next generation NOAA workforce