Louis W. Uccellini ; Marie C. Colton; David S. Green and W. Douglas Wilson

1. Expanding Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the Chesapeake Bay: Collaborative Development for Ecological Forecasting Applications Louis W. Uccellini; Marie C. Colton; David S. Green and W. Douglas Wilson NOAA National Weather Service, National Ocean Service & Chesapeake Bay Office March 24, 2009 2009 CRC Regional Conference

2. Outline • Drivers • Regional Capabilities: Current State • Expanding Capabilities • Opportunities for Chesapeake Bay Pilot Forecasts and Collaboration • Regional Capabilities: Future State • Proposed Next Steps

3. Drivers • Addressing User need for expanding environmental prediction as a tool for informed decision making • Linking weather, water and ecological research, assessment, and monitoring and modeling capabilities at a regional scale • Delivering essential forecast products and services through regional collaboration • Increasing outreach and education • Enhancing socio-economic benefits • NOAA initiative to focus its expertise, resources , and capabilities in the broader context of Ecosystem Based Management • Establishing a formal operational ecological forecasting entity for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal tributaries

4. Regional Capabilities: Current StateNeed for integration • Observations • Extensive regional observation systems and monitoring programs • Modeling • Regional atmosphere and ocean models • Hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and biology models (transport, nutrients, contaminants, populations, vulnerability) • Water circulation models for the bay • Species population dynamics and disease models • Research • Quasi-operational ecological forecasting and assessment of ecosystem indicators backed by NOAA infrastructure and regional partnerships

5. Observations Ecological Forecasting & Decision Support Tools Products & Services for Users & Stakeholders Environmental Modeling Research Expanding Capabilities System development & partnerships Linking needed components Scaling to local decision making System use and sustainability

6. Opportunities for Chesapeake BayPilot Forecasts* Beach/Water Quality Daily, Weekly (3-7-day), Seasonal Outlooks and Lead times Living Resource Distribution Oyster Forecast, Annual biomass, including harvests and other related mortality/disease Dissolved Oxygen [DO] Predictions Synoptic to seasonal Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll) Initiation and land fall at all time scales Sea Nettles Disease Pathogen Progression (Climate Change) Vibrio or MSX outbreaks Mollusks, fish, human impacts Ecological impacts of global change (eg. sea level rise) Long-term scenarios * Outcome of discussion with regional providers, Pre-planning meeting for Chesapeake Ecological Forecasting Workshop, Chesapeake Bay Office, Annapolis, Feb 27, 2009

7. Beach/Water QualityMonitoring & Forecast System • Issue:Water quality is at risk due to microbial and chemical contamination and a threat to human and ecosystem health and economics • Solution:Water (beach) quality guidance • Operational Concept:Routinely generate forecasts and warnings daily, weekly, seasonal (including lead times) using hydrologic, waves, precipitation, circulation, transport turbidity, nutrients, waste, watershed and land computational models • Collaborators:Include state and local managers, scientists, health workers, fishers and regulators • Output Product:Near-real time maps and decision support tools showing water quality index and long-term scenarios, bacterial content, water temperature, turbidity, beach closures, habitat suitability, stock assessments, categorical risk assessment • Dissemination:Online, Factsheets, and Media • Outcome:Actions taken to improve Bay and public health, clean water, promote restoration, land and resource management, adaptation, and research Indicators and Indices http://www.eco-check.org/reportcard/chesapeake/2007/

8. Ecological Forecasting Application Development and Partnerships Research (separate program) Transition (Development) Pre-operations Operations Validation Develop concepts, models, sensors Forecast development Transfer models Product types, Training matl, Analysts Data integration, Data access Forecasts (bulletins), Respond to users, Access and run data sets, User interaction Forecast evaluation, Product usefulness, Product effectiveness, Annual User feedback Various Researchers (NOAA, NASA, NSF, USGS…) and Regional Stakeholders Technical Oversight Group (NOAA) Researchers and Regional Stakeholders NOAA and State partners NOAA and State partners NOAA and Technical Oversight Group Key Users Group Key Users Group User Requirements and Operational Feedback Federal, State, and Local Stakeholders and Users, including other management agencies (State Depts. of Health, Fisheries; Nat'l Marine Sanctuaries, Protected Species)

9. Opportunities for Chesapeake BayCollaborative Development • Adopt a Trans-disciplinary approach • Integrative research science • Collaborative community-based development • Shared resources and expertise • Building off existing operational prediction and product delivery infrastructure and experience • Establish a Regional Presence • Pilot Project Office • Focus for regional collaboration • Integration test environment (testbed) for advancing ecological forecasting * Outcome of discussion with regional providers, Pre-planning meeting for Chesapeake Ecological Forecasting Workshop, Chesapeake Bay Office, Annapolis, Feb 27, 2009

10. Regional Capabilities: Future State Integrated Observations Continuum over spatial and temporal scales Atmospheric-ocean, estuaries, near-shore River flow and flux, wetlands, watersheds Coastal and beaches Land-surface biophysics Weather and climate Biogeochemistry and species In situ, remote sampling, surveys, and process studies Linked Modeling and Research Multiply nested global to regional models Atmospheric, ocean circulation, coastal and river Linked physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem Model/data fusion, portals and libraries Decision Support Interactive and adaptive tools Geospatial and online maps

11. Regional Capabilities: Future State • Products and Services • Ecological warnings, watches, advisories, and information bulletins Long-term scenarios and outlooks • Interactive decision support, visualization aids, and maps • Education and outreach • Operating Principles • Scalable to inform decisions for regional to local management • Collaborative and community-based • User-driven for mitigation, adaptation, restoration and recovery • Effective, reliable and quality controlled with known uncertainties • Directed to transition research results to validated applications • Accessible and supportive operational infrastructure and feedback to drive new research

12. Proposed Next Steps • Engage with stakeholder and user community in developing the forecast and management capability • Establish Regional Collaborative Pilot Office near NOAA at University of Maryland • Extend multi-agency, academic, and regional participation • Maintain a robust monitoring and observing network • Strengthen regional observation and data systems • Deliver pre-operational forecast products and tools • Integration of a suite of hydrodynamic and biological models • Use regional testbed for accelerating research to applications • Develop and implement forecast products and tools for living resource distributions, hypoxic conditions, water quality, beach closures, algal blooms and pathogens

13. Appendix

14. Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)Monitoring & Forecast System • Issue: HABs threaten human health and natural resources • Solution: Predict nature, extent, development and movement of HAB species in Bay and its tidal tributaries. • Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts using data from hydrodynamic computer models and NOAA satellites. • Collaborators: Include state natural resource partners • Output Product: Near-real time maps showing when and where to expect initiation and landfall • Dissemination: Online and Media • Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate HAB effects. Nowcast of K.veneficum abundance (Experimental product) http://155.206.18.162/cbay_hab/

15. Dissolved Oxygen [DO]Monitoring & Forecast System • Issue: Some areas of the Bay have low oxygen levels threatening survival of species. • Solution: Predictions and forecasts of hypoxia, including uncertainty related to nutrient loading and river flow • Operational Concept: Routinely generate predictions and forecasts on synoptic to seasonal scales using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, atmospheric and water quality models • Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers • Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing concentration and dead zones, habitat suitability, and marine assessments • Dissemination: Online and Media • Outcome: Regional actions taken to promote restoration and recovery http://www.eco-check.org/forecast/chesapeake/overview/

16. Living Resource Distribution/OysterMonitoring & Forecast System • Issue: Oyster populations are at low levels and productivity varies depending on salinity, water quality, habitat conditions, and disease. • Solution: Annual forecast of oyster biomass including harvests and other related mortality/disease information • Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and outlooks using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, water quality, atmospheric and ecosystem models • Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers • Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing habitat suitability, stock assessments, management and larvae tracking • Dissemination: Online and Media • Outcome: Actions taken to promote oyster restoration and disease research Chesapeake Bay Oyster Larvae Tracker (CBOLT) http://csc.noaa.gov/cbolt/

17. Oyster Larvae Tracker System Architecture

18. Disease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast System • Issue: Bacterial and viral pathogens – microorganisms capable of causing disease - threaten shellfish, fish species and human health • Solution: Predict nature, extent, and spatially dependence of pathogens, including virulence probabilities in Bay and tidal tributaries • Operational Concept: Routinely generate short- and long-term predictions using data from hydrodynamic and climate models, temperature and salinity, vibrio and multiple species, pathogen models and remote sensing data. Near-real-time maps of V. cholerae likelihood Experimental product http://155.206.18.162/pathogens/

19. Disease Pathogen ProgressionMonitoring & Forecast System • Collaborators: Include water quality and resource mangers, environmental, health and safety planners, and health officials • Output Product: Near-real time predictions and maps showing when and where to expect outbreaks or likelihood of occurrence, and long-term scenarios • Dissemination: Online, Factsheets and Media • Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate impacts of pathogens