Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake

1. Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake JEANNE PERKINS ABAG Earthquake Program Manager

2. What Are Natural HAZARDS?

3. Earthquake-Related Hazards • Ground Shaking • Fault Rupture • Liquefaction • Landslides • Tsunamis

4. Weather-Related Hazards • Flooding • Landslides • Wildfires • Drought

5. What Are the HAZARDS in MY Area?

13. Transportation Impacts

14. 2 PAST EARTHQUAKES • 142 road closures in Loma Prieta • 140 road closures in Northridge 18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES • 17 Bigger than these earthquakes • 0 Bigger than New Orleans

15. What Happens - M 7.9 on San Andreas Fault -- • 1,330 total closures • Problems along I-280 and Hwy. 101 in San Mateo Co. • San Francisco a mess • San Mateo and Marin county coasts isolated • Problems near Bay at OAK, SFO and SJC

16. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault -- • 1,650 total closures • Most toll bridges not usable • Some problems in the Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties • Entire East Bay isolated

17. Recovery Timeline

18. What Does This Mean? • There were only 142 road closures in Loma Prieta. • There were only 140 road closures in Northridge. • Our model for predicting the potential impacts of these closures should be Kobe, not either of these California earthquakes.

19. Utility System Impacts

20. Liquefaction- Results Selected Damage to Foundations Roads & Sidewalks Sand boils Pipeline Breaks

22. What Happened in the “Very High” Liquefaction Areas - Loma Prieta Quake • Water - 4-5 times more breaks • Natural Gas - 3 - 11 times more breaks • Roads - 1.3 times more surface, but 25 times more costly

23. Liquefaction Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward

24. Airport System Impacts

25. What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault • SFO probably CLOSED • OAK probably CLOSED • SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.

26. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault • SFO probably disruption • OAK probably CLOSED • SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.

27. HousingImpacts

28. 2 PAST EARTHQUAKES • 16,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Loma Prieta Earthquake • 48,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Northridge Earthquake 18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES • 13 Bigger than Loma Prieta • 8 Bigger than Northridge • 0 Bigger than New Orleans

29. What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault • 159,900 uninhabitable housing units • (300,000 – Katrina) • 359,000 people displaced • 105,700 peak shelter population

30. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault • 155,700 uninhabitable housing units • 300,000 - Katrina • 356,600 people displaced • 110,300 peak shelter population

31. Single Family Homes 9% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

32. Mobile Homes 7% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

33. Multifamily Wood-Frame 66% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

34. Unreinforced Masonry 8% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

35. Other Non-Wood Multi-Family 10% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

36. Multifamily vs. Single-Family 84% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare

37. The Nightmare Goes On and On...

38. The Nightmare Goes On and On...

39. Who Has the Nightmare?

40. What is the role of business after a disaster?

41. Where is ABAG’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan information on the internet? http://quake.abag.ca.gov As well as “special” info at http://quake.abag.ca.gov/business

42. Save the Date – Thursday, April 20 – (Day 3 of the Mega-Conference)