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Anthony Downs Ch. 8

Anthony Downs Ch. 8. The Statics and Dynamics of Party Ideology. Learning Objectives. Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time. .

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Anthony Downs Ch. 8

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  1. Anthony Downs Ch. 8 The Statics and Dynamics of Party Ideology

  2. Learning Objectives • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. • Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time.

  3. Party Movement • When do parties change ideologies • When do the diverge? • When do they resemble each other

  4. Where To Build a Bar in Central Texas? Here… in Bastrop

  5. Or Here? 6th Street

  6. Why Do you See These two across the Street From Each Other?

  7. Why Does This, Appear next to This?

  8. Why Do We Have?

  9. These Strategies Apply to Politics

  10. Lets Apply this to Ideology • Here is a distribution with 0 representing policy liberalism, and 100 representing policy conservativism • A and B represent political parties

  11. Where Parties Should Go in A Normal Distribution They Move To the Center

  12. Why go to the Center • You Cant leapfrog the other party • More voters • At what point do you stop moving to the Center?

  13. When do you stop?

  14. The Problem of Being Too Moderate • A Third Party could grab your flank • Too many of your people stay home

  15. Staying Put

  16. What About A Bimodal Distribution?

  17. Party Polarization

  18. The Tea Party

  19. One Hump is often Bigger 2010

  20. In 2008 it was the other way

  21. Multi Party Systems

  22. Polygamy

  23. A polymodal System

  24. A Polymodal System • In PR systems, 1 party for Each hump • How might this differ in a Single Member District System?

  25. In Germany

  26. Party Movement in Multiparty Systems • Stay Put! • Distinguish yourself from your enemies

  27. How our Parties Deal with the Humps • Social and Economic Conservatives (within the GOP) • The Many Humps within the Democratic Party

  28. New and Old How Many parties

  29. How Many Parties in Majority Elections • Duverger’s Law • Mechanical Effect • Psychological Effect

  30. How Many in a Two Round System • If No candidate gets 50%+1, we have a runoff • This system encourages multiple candidates/parties as well as coalitions

  31. What about in Texas?

  32. The Kinds of Candidates • Those who are there to win • Perry • KBH • Those that are there to influence • Medina • The rest • This system encourages populist and extremist candidates

  33. Voting in the First Round • Try to get your preferred candidate into second place or Get them 50% • Do not worry about switching candidates

  34. The Second Round • Round 1 winners must compromise to get the supporters of the losing candidates in round two • This favors candidates who are situated at the political middle • This hurts intransigent candidates

  35. Rational Voting in this system • Round 1 with your heart • Round 2 with your head

  36. How many parties in a PR system • As many parties as humps exist • Depends on the threshold

  37. New Parties

  38. Getting New Parties • Existing parties cant jump over each other • New Parties come from • Between the gap • On the fringe

  39. What New parties Want to Do Win elections Threaten Existing Parties

  40. How can Third Parties Win? A Shift In Franchise…. The electorate changes!

  41. Splitting the Vote

  42. Ambiguity • You can try to accomplish everything • It increases your appeal • It makes it harder for the voter to be rational! Why?

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