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Anthony Downs

Anthony Downs. An Economic Theory of Democracy Micro and Macro theories Summarized by Courtney Brown, Ph.D., Emory University. Rationality. People either think and act rationally, or they act as though they think and act rationally.

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Anthony Downs

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  1. Anthony Downs • An Economic Theory of Democracy • Micro and Macro theories Summarized by Courtney Brown, Ph.D., Emory University

  2. Rationality • People either think and act rationally, or they act as though they think and act rationally. • Rationality is based on evaluations of utility income, some hypothetical, some real. • Utility is the common denominator that allows for these evaluations using diverse issues.

  3. Notation • U = Utility (actual or hypothetical) • E = expected value • A = the incumbent party at time t • B = the opposition (out-of-power) party at time t

  4. The Micro Theory: Voter Calculations I • Method One: E(Ut+1A) - E(Ut+1B) • If positive, vote for party A. • If negative, vote for party B. • This assumes that people are voting in the absence of history.

  5. Voter Calculations II • Method Two: (UtA) - E(UtB) • This is based on the assumption that voters base their decisions on previous experience rather than on future expectation.

  6. Ideology • It is difficult to make complex calculations across a variety of issues that affect a voter. • Ideology is a short-cut for the otherwise unwieldy process. • Role of uncertainty with regard to what the future will bring.

  7. Issue Samples • Voters estimate ideologies based on only a few issues. • These issues act at samples of the larger potential pool of issues. • Voters rely on there being a positive correlation between the previous behavior of a party and its ideology.

  8. The Winning Ideology • There is uncertainty as to which is the best ideology for a given year. • The zero-sum game • The guess, and the winning coalition

  9. The Macro Theory • A political-ideological scale Conservative Liberal

  10. The Normal, Bell-shaped Curve • Convergence, stability, moderation Population Density A B Conservative Liberal

  11. The Bi-Modal Curve • Centrifugal, unstable, extreme Population Density A B Liberal Conservative

  12. Lop-sided Society • Typical of class oriented society with no sizeable middle class. Population Density Conservative Liberal

  13. Typical multi-party distribution • Proportional representation is needed. Population Density A B C D Parties

  14. Britain: An Historical Example. • The extension of the vote franchise helped the Labour Party and hurt the Liberals Population Density Labour Liberal Conservative

  15. Portugal and Spain in the 1970s • The emergence of a middle class Population Density Conservative Liberal

  16. Transformation to Stability • The window of opportunity to stability is brief. Population Density Conservative Liberal

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