1 / 23

2006 Elections: A Return to a Blue Maryland

2006 Elections: A Return to a Blue Maryland?. Key questions:To what extent did the 2006 elections represent a

betty_james
Download Presentation

2006 Elections: A Return to a Blue Maryland

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

    1. 2006 Elections: A Return to a Blue Maryland? By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

    3. Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’ Wins over 70% of vote in 6 counties (Carroll, Caroline, Harford, Queen Anne, Garrett, Talbot) Wins 60-69% of vote in 12 counties (Washington, Somerset Cecil, Dorchester, Frederick, Kent, Worcester, Wicomico, Allegany, St. Mary’s, Baltimore Wins 50-59% of vote in 2 counties (Charles, Howard) Loses (below 40%) in 3 jurisdictions ( Montgomery, Baltimore City and Prince George’s) Wins over 70% of vote in 6 counties (Carroll, Caroline, Harford, Queen Anne, Garrett, Talbot) Wins 60-69% of vote in 12 counties (Washington, Somerset Cecil, Dorchester, Frederick, Kent, Worcester, Wicomico, Allegany, St. Mary’s, Baltimore Wins 50-59% of vote in 2 counties (Charles, Howard) Loses (below 40%) in 3 jurisdictions ( Montgomery, Baltimore City and Prince George’s)

    4. What was the significance of Ehrlich’s 2002 victory? Was this a personal victory for Bob Ehrlich, or a general victory for the Republican Party and new policy priorities? All other Republican statewide candidates did more poorly in 2002 than they had in 1998. 1994 had been much more of a consistent Republican tide with candidates for comptroller, US Senate and AG moving up with Sauerbrey In 2006, Republican statewide candidates were bunched up – making it appear more like a ‘party line’ vote rather than a vote for Bob EhrlichAll other Republican statewide candidates did more poorly in 2002 than they had in 1998. 1994 had been much more of a consistent Republican tide with candidates for comptroller, US Senate and AG moving up with Sauerbrey In 2006, Republican statewide candidates were bunched up – making it appear more like a ‘party line’ vote rather than a vote for Bob Ehrlich

    5. 2002: “Red” Maryland was impressive -Ehrlich majority counties include 55% of all Maryland voters Ehrlich high majority (60%+) include 47% of all Maryland voters Republican competitive jurisdictions included much (if not most) of Maryland Naturally, the exceptions are the ‘big three’ – Montgomery, Prince George’s and Baltimore City. These three constitute around 38% of all voters. They provided Ehrlich with 22% of all his votes in 2002 (23% in 2006). KKT got 56% of all her votes there; O’Malley got 50%Naturally, the exceptions are the ‘big three’ – Montgomery, Prince George’s and Baltimore City. These three constitute around 38% of all voters. They provided Ehrlich with 22% of all his votes in 2002 (23% in 2006). KKT got 56% of all her votes there; O’Malley got 50%

    6.

    7. 2002 vs. 2006 Ehrlich drops from 51.6% to 47.7% 879,592 votes to 825,464 (-54,128) Dem rises from 813,422 to 942, 279 (+128,857) Ehrlich’s largest drop in counties that were most supportive in 2002 – down 7% from 67% to 60% in ’02 majority counties Small drop in least supportive jurisdictions – down from 29% to 27%

    8. 2006 Elections: A Return to a Blue Maryland? Counties by Republican Score Strong R 60+ Rep score Leans R 55-59 Rep score Contested 45-54 Rep score Leans D 40-44 Rep score Strong D 0-39 Rep score

    9. Composite Picture – More Blue Less Red

    10. How Generalized was the Change from Red to Blue in 2006? General Assembly - House of Delegates – Democratic Hegemony Reinforced Democrats increased their hold on the House of Delegates, improving the number of seats and increasing the number of districts in which they captured all 3 delegates.Democrats increased their hold on the House of Delegates, improving the number of seats and increasing the number of districts in which they captured all 3 delegates.

    11. General Assembly - Senate – Status Quo with Democratic Lean How Generalized was the Change from Red to Blue in 2006? Rep held their own in the Senate, but trends looked unfavorable – smaller margins of victory, fewer average numbers of voters. Democrats increased their margins of victory and the number of average voters.Rep held their own in the Senate, but trends looked unfavorable – smaller margins of victory, fewer average numbers of voters. Democrats increased their margins of victory and the number of average voters.

    12. Trends in Party Registration –Democratic Hegemony Likely to Continue Both Democrats and Republicans have declined, with unaffiliated voters on the increase. The may increase the volatility of the electorate – producing unpredictable outcomes depending on campaign, candidates and circumstances. The combined percentage of combined Republican and unaffiliated voters is about 43% - so how do Republican statewide candidates win as did Ehrlich in 2002?Both Democrats and Republicans have declined, with unaffiliated voters on the increase. The may increase the volatility of the electorate – producing unpredictable outcomes depending on campaign, candidates and circumstances. The combined percentage of combined Republican and unaffiliated voters is about 43% - so how do Republican statewide candidates win as did Ehrlich in 2002?

    13. How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages? Is there a mixed message despite Democratic registration advantage? Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002: All Rep and unaffiliated voters = 731128 Ehrlich ’02 vote = 879592 Democratic defections (and other party registrants): 140464

    14. How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages – Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%) Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%)

    15. What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Depends how you ask the question! Closed-ended: Economy -21% Education – 18% Taxes – 16% Crime - 13 Open-ended: Education – 18% Taxes – 8% Economy – 5% Crime -4% Ehrlich appealed to some traditional Republican issues such as the economy and taxes, as well as slots. O’Malley was somewhat more favored by those concerned with education, healthcare, the environment and the ability to work with the legislature. Neither was clearly arguing in favor of higher taxes, although O’Malley was probably promising more government initiatives.Ehrlich appealed to some traditional Republican issues such as the economy and taxes, as well as slots. O’Malley was somewhat more favored by those concerned with education, healthcare, the environment and the ability to work with the legislature. Neither was clearly arguing in favor of higher taxes, although O’Malley was probably promising more government initiatives.

    16. Conclusions about the Electoral Scene

    17. Conclusion about the Electoral Scene

    18. Election Implications about Governing

    19. Election Implications about Governing

    20. Election Implications about Governing

    21. Election Implications about Governing

    22. Election Implications about Governing

    23. Election Implications about Governing

More Related