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The Importance of Elections

The Importance of Elections. Elections. How elections are run affects how politicians think about their jobs What they need to win colours what they feel they need to do while in office. How many votes do you need?. Barbara Hall Suzanne Hall Tony Ianno Olivia Chow

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The Importance of Elections

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  1. The Importance of Elections

  2. Elections • How elections are run affects how politicians think about their jobs • What they need to win colours what they feel they need to do while in office

  3. How many votes do you need? • Barbara Hall • Suzanne Hall • Tony Ianno • Olivia Chow • How many votes, from whom, why?

  4. How many votes • Get the data • Provincial or federal: look at party trends www.elections.on.ca/en-CA/Tools/PastResults.htm www.elections.ca/intro.asp?section=pas&document=index&lang=e • Municipal: find a comparator www.toronto.ca/elections/results/index.htm

  5. How many votes • Ward sizes, voter turnouts and the size of field guide how many votes you need • Context matters

  6. How many votes • How many votes does a Liberal candidate need to win the next election? • What is the NDP trend – what affects it? • What is the Liberal trend – what affects it?

  7. Which votes • Total numbers tell you too little to plan • Objectives need to be more specific • Where are your votes coming from?

  8. Poll by Poll results

  9. Think of the results by geography Look for outcome changing trends Poll by Poll results

  10. What matters? 2005 2009

  11. Who are your voters • Once you know where they are, you need to know who they are • What is the demographic makeup of the polls you now know you need to win • What are they likely to care about • What are they likely to want • Look at Ward or Riding profiles for the big picture • Look at the census for the details

  12. See geography as demography

  13. Demographic shortcuts • The census has 1,171 variables • Let’s cut that down to the ones that matter most • Family composition • Age groupings • Tenure • Language • Immigration • Race • Employment • Education • Income • Simple formulas tell you what you need to know

  14. Census shortcuts • Analyze data by tract • Focus on key polls • Work in percentages of tract population • Compare with City averages

  15. Standard census tract maps

  16. Interactive census maps

  17. Segmenting your vote • Look at the demographics of: • Your winning polls • Your swing polls • Your losing polls • Segment your universe • Likely characteristics of supporters • Likely characteristics of leaners • Likely characteristics of opponents

  18. Data analysis • Compare with local knowledge • Data is the starting point, not the end point • Walk your constituency • You usually don’t know something you can’t see • Now you know who the voters are • Its time to figure out what will appeal to yours

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