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French experience in prospective scenarios Energy – Climate – Air pollution Estimations of emissions of GHG and air po

French experience in prospective scenarios Energy – Climate – Air pollution Estimations of emissions of GHG and air pollutants in 2020 and 2030. Jean-Pierre FONTELLE TFEIP Stockholm 2-3 May 2011 . Content. Framework and scenarios produced Emissions of GHG in France in 2020 and 2030

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French experience in prospective scenarios Energy – Climate – Air pollution Estimations of emissions of GHG and air po

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  1. French experience in prospective scenarios Energy – Climate – Air pollution Estimations of emissions of GHG and air pollutants in 2020 and 2030 Jean-Pierre FONTELLE TFEIP Stockholm 2-3 May 2011

  2. Content • Framework and scenarios produced • Emissions of GHG in France in 2020 and 2030 • Emissions of air pollutants in France in 2020 and 2030 • Conclusions • Studyconducted by CITEPA in March 2011 • (N. ALLEMAND, J. JABOT, E. DEFLORENNE, C. GUEGUEN, E. PROUTEAU , J-M. ANDRE, J-P. CHANG, R. JOYA, E. MATHIAS, J-P. FONTELLE) • OPTINEC 4 – Scénarii prospectifs climat – air – énergie. Evolution des émissions de polluants en France à l’horizon 2020 et 2030

  3. Estimations of future energy consumption • Based on specific work coordinated by the French Ministry of Ecology and carried out by ENERDATA with the POLES and MEDPRO models • Validation of assumptions in cooperation with different experts of the Ministry and the industry sectors • Future energy demand and characteristic based on a large number of parameters : • Demography, number of households, future economic growth, costs of energy, costs of carbon, • Energy demand per sector : industry, building, tertiary activities, agriculture, transport (all modes), • Trends for each sector in energy efficiency, energy savings, • Changes in energy mix (especially use of renewable energy).

  4. Scenarios produced • PG Business as usual (before 2007) • AME Existing PAMs adopted < 2010 • AMSM Existing PAMs < 2010 + effect expected from supplementary PAMs • AMSO Existing PAMs < 2010 + full compliance with the target as a result of supplementary Policies (this scenario underlines possible differences where the real effect is different from the initial efficiency expected) • AMSO F4 similar to AMSO until 2020, continuation on the basis of theoretical compliance with a reduction of emissions by a factor 4 in 2050 • PAMs : policy and measures

  5. GHG emissions (LULUCF excluded) (Mainnland France + Overseas territories)

  6. Emissions of GHG (LULUCF excluded) (Mainland France + Overseas territories) PG AME AMSM AMSO AMSO F4

  7. GHG emissions – France GHG emission trends - energy sector

  8. Pollutantemissions– Mainland France • 3 scenarios AME, AMSM and AMSO only tested for air pollutants, • Emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, COVNM estimated in 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, • Estimations of emission trends split according to two configurations : • One based on the current legislation as of 01/01/2010, • Another based on additional measures taken after 01/01/2010 (the new IED of 24 November 2010) and a set of potential additional measures proposed by the Ministry (scenarios marked “mPA”

  9. SO2emissions _____ provisional ceiling in 2020 according to different ambition levels

  10. SO2emissions by sectors AME AMSM mPA AMSM AMSO AMSO mPA

  11. NOxemissions – Mainland France _____ provisional ceiling in 2020 according to different ambition levels

  12. NOxemissions by sectors AME AMSM mPA AMSM AMSO AMSO mPA

  13. PM 2.5 emissions – Mainland France _____ provisional ceiling in 2020 according to different ambition levels

  14. PM 2.5 emissions by sectors AMSO mPA AME AMSM mPA AMSO AMSM

  15. Highlights on prospective emissionsexercise Conclusions • Such an exercise is necessary for assessing feasibility of complying with future ceilings in the frame of current negotiations (Gothenburg Protocol) • Energy savings needed to meet the EU Climate/Energy targets and the French national targets enable emission reductions linked to the production and use of energy (SO2, NOx, a part of PM2.5 and NMVOCs (biomass combustion)) scenario AMSM mPAbut not enable the following to be reached : • All targets in 2020 (SO2 only in compliance), • The most ambitious current targets under no circumstances

  16. Highlights on prospective emissionsexercise Conclusions • Emissions of NOx, PM2,5 and NMVOCs can be significantly impacted by the increase in use of biomass which is included in climate PAMs. • For the scenario AMSO, in which the use of biomass is the most important, emissions of PM2.5 are higher than with the scenario AMSM (emissions of PM 2.5 and NMVOCs are potentially high in small domestic appliances where energy efficiency is low and the combustion is not regulated and well controlled ; NOx emissions are higher with wood than natural gas and light distillates). • Therefore, the best scenario regarding GHG emission reductions is not the best for all air pollutant emission reductions (eg. PM2.5 and NMVOCs)

  17. Thanks for your attention CITEPA – 7 CitéParadis – 75010 PARIS +33 1 44 83 68 83 www.citepa.org infos@citepa.org The reference for the atmosphere of the future

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