1 / 11

Luis SAGAON TEYSSIER Ph.D . Econometrics

I. Improving the quality of data in the Global Price Reporting Mechanism for a reliable market intelligence project International Multi- stakeholder Consultation on National AIDS programmes Nairobi,19th April 2012. Luis SAGAON TEYSSIER Ph.D . Econometrics. Historical Background.

bevis
Download Presentation

Luis SAGAON TEYSSIER Ph.D . Econometrics

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. I Improving the quality of data in the Global Price Reporting Mechanism for a reliable market intelligence project International Multi-stakeholder Consultation on National AIDS programmesNairobi,19th April 2012 Luis SAGAON TEYSSIER Ph.D. Econometrics

  2. Historical Background • Enhancement of GPRM • Collect data from partners • Data cleaning (algorithms) • Data analysis (start with ARVs) • Diagnostics • Input to restructuring database Joint responsibilities • Identify new data sources, additional variables • Develop new interface • Develop standard reports, queries • Extension to TB and Malaria commodities 2001 : UNAIDS meeting on need for international data collection of ARV drug prices based on observed transactions 2005: Establishment of Global Drug Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) 2009: RFP issued by UNITAID for Global Data Exchange 2011 February: MOUs signed with WHO/AMDS; ANRS; FIND

  3. Global Price Reporting Mechanism (AMDS/WHO)

  4. Data set on ARVs (2003-2011)n= 36,347 transactions2011 data are not complete The main problems are the presence of atypical unit prices & non-comparability of unit prices due to International Commerce Terms (INCOTERMS)

  5. The effect of outliers on analyses

  6. The effect of outliers on analyses Y Not controlling for the presence of outliersmayinduce to erroneousinference. Are pricesatypicalbecause of a problem in the sources’ reportingmechanisms, or/and because the heterogeneityintroduced by different Incoterms? Prices are determined by severalfactors: need of a multivariateframework X

  7. Outliers detection based on robust regression Variables used: drug-specific dummy variables, destination country, quantity bougth, Incoterms, GNIpc., innovator/generic 2003-2009 2010-2011* *Provisory.

  8. Price differences induced by incoterms: the effect of outliers on the estimation 2003-2009 2010-2011* -40% to 30% 4.6% to 25.1% -6% to 61% 2.5% to 20% *Provisory.

  9. Descriptive statistics of unit prices Final dataset: 32,427 transactions of ARVs; Proportion of outliers: 10.8% Mean unit prices: not removingoutliers: 0.347 US$; removingoutliers: 0.239 US$ Unit priceswithoutliers 31.12% > pricescontrolling for outliers Mean unit priceswithoutoutliers: ExWorks0.239 US$; observed0.258 US$ Once outlierscontrolled: ExWorksprices 7.8% < thanobservedprices

  10. Someexamples

  11. Conclusions • Statistical procedures need to be implemented for a reliable GPRM • Quality (good or bad) of data may have important consequences in procurement policies • Understanding the market tendencies on the basis of quality data would contribute to better identification of problems in the market (globally, at the level country, etc.)

More Related