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Inverse Modeling of the Microbial Loop

Inverse Modeling of the Microbial Loop. J. Steele & A. Beet. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Fishing. spawning. recruitment. Benthivorous Fish. Piscivorous Fish. Planktivorous Fish. Marine Mammals. Seabirds. Pre-recruits. Pre-recruits. Pre-recruits. Micro-

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Inverse Modeling of the Microbial Loop

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  1. Inverse Modeling of the Microbial Loop J. Steele & A. Beet Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

  2. Fishing spawning recruitment Benthivorous Fish Piscivorous Fish Planktivorous Fish Marine Mammals Seabirds Pre-recruits Pre-recruits Pre-recruits Micro- Zooplankton (2-200mm) Meso- Zooplankton (>200mm) Suspension- feeding Benthos Pelagic Invertebrate Predators Nano- Phytoplankton (<20mm) Deposit-feeding Benthos Micro- Phytoplankton (>20mm) R Nitrate Detritus Ammonia

  3. Bi External Inputs, Ki Losses from System due to inefficiency, ei Ni Ni = ei (  aij Nj ) + Ki 0 < ei < 1.0 , “Ecopath type” solution; specify ei, aij Ki solve for Ni There are an equal number of variables and equations A unique solution exists

  4. Fishing Lobsters: 0.9 Shellfish: 0.9 Fish: 0.24+0.48+0.24 spawning recruitment Benthivorous Fish B: 0.88 Piscivorous Fish B: 2.76 6.2 Planktivorous Fish B: 9.85 Seabirds 0.08 Marine Mammals 6.0 from fish & Squid 1.8 from Zoo 7.8 total Pre-recruits Pre-recruits Pre-recruits 285 Micro- Zooplankton 202 Meso- Zooplankton 30.19 Suspension- feeding Benthos Pelagic Invertebrate Predators Sullivan & Meise 1996 2793 Nano- Phytoplankton 55.54 Deposit-feeding Benthos 1197 Phytoplankton Phyto 501 R Zoo ? 900 Bacteria 4.8x10^5 mg at N s^ -1 Nitrate+Nitrite DOC 638 Detritus 2.2x10^6 mg at N s^ -1 Ammonia

  5. Bi External Inputs, Ki Losses from System due to inefficiency, ei Ni Ni = ei (  aij Nj ) + Ki Ni = bi . Biwhere bi is turnover rate “Inverse” solution: set bounds on ei , , and solve for Problem: There are more variables than equations There is no unique solution

  6. To obtain a unique solution the introduction of an objective function is needed. The maximization or minimization of this function provides a unique solution. Vezina and Platt, 1988 Question ecological; how appropriate is this function? Alternative maximize resilience

  7. NO3 Regn. Phyto L.P. S.P. Microz mesoZ Pel.F. Detritus Dem.F

  8. NO3 Regn. Phyto L.P. S.P. Microz mesoZ Pel.F. Detritus Dem.F

  9. NO3 Regn. Phyto L.P. S.P. Microz mesoZ Pel.F. Detritus Dem.F

  10. NO3 R1 N1 Phyto L.P. S.P. R2 N2 Microz N3 mesoZ R3 Regn Graz Pel.F. N4 Detritus R4 Fluxes Regn Dem.F Losses

  11. 0.4 <= P->M <= 1 (Resilience / Sum of squares) 0.5 <= P->M <= 1 (Resilience / Sum of squares)

  12. 0.4 <= P->M <= 1 (Resilience / Sum of squares) 0.5 <= P->M <= 1 (Resilience / Sum of squares)

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